Kenbrell Thompkins: A top-20 WR in 2013?

I am a short, white wide receiver. Not in the NFL, no, but I do play in my share of competitive flag football leagues. Every game when I start making plays, the other team yells at each other "Hey! Who has Welker?" - Welker? I can only assume they are referring to Wes Welker, another short, white wide receiver.

I HATE this comparison. I play nothing like Welker. If anything I would compare the way I play to Davone Bess, or former NYG Steve Smith during '08-'09 seasons.

Which brings me to the point. Analysts need to stop comparing Amendola, another white, short receiver, to Wes Welker.

[Related: FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here's the link to register.]

It's not hard to find an analyst on the web raving about the possibilities of Amendola catching 100+ balls, seamlessly stepping into Welker's old role on a pass-heavy, Brady led offense. But I just don't see this happening after going over film on both players.

Here are some of the key differences I've noticed:

1. Welker is a physical receiver.

You have to be physical running quick slants over the middle, or sitting in the gap in a zone defense. Welker is superb on plays that are not making any YouTube Highlight videos anytime soon. He uses his body as well as any WR I have seen. He creates separation between the ball and the defender by pivoting on a dime and boxing out like Dwight Howard in the paint, all at top speeds.

Amendola has just not been willing to body up with defenders so far in his career like Welker has. This lack of physicality will give defenders better position on the football and more chances to break up plays.

2. Helping out the QB.

True Amendola is shifty, and quick out of his breaks like Welker is. However, Amendola is always looking for the big play. He gets separation out of the break and then runs to open field wanting to be led by his QB for big gains. While this seems logical, it is not always the smart thing for a WR to do.

After he gets separation, Welker does not run in the direction that will most likely lead to him making a big play. He runs to where it will be the easiest for his QB to make the throw. He often cuts hard, back towards the line of scrimmage, or across field, into his QB's throwing lanes. He doesn't wait for the ball to come to him. He simply goes and gets the football.

3. Ball skills and security

Amendola has a pretty impressive catch rate (receptions/catchable passes). However this is with a pretty small sample size of targets relative to Welker, and after watching game tape, Amendola's ball skills are not up to par with Welker's.

Amendola catches the ball against his chest too often. This could be a problem on fast passes thrown across the middle into traffic. When the ball is caught with the body first, it is easy to lose possession upon immediate contact by a defender. This is because the ball is not properly secured by the hands at 2 pressure points. You know those passes where you swear the receiver should have held on to the ball because it seemingly went all the way into his belly. Yeah, it was in his stomach, just not in his hands.

Welker gets the ball at it's highest or first available point, and then quickly tucks the football into his body. He also does a fantastic job of covering the ball up with both hands when he senses high traffic. These may seem like small nuances to the casual viewer, but can make all the difference in the flow of a game. Because Welker excelled at the little things, he gained Brady's full trust.

Now this brings us to the key similarities I have noticed between the two WRs:

White. Short. WR. Texas Tech.

I could make more comparisons about the two, but this article is about how they are different. Question anyone that makes the assumption that Welker and Amendola are similar players. Ask them why they think this is true. I firmly believe Amendola will fall short of analysts expectations in 2013.


Insert Kenbrell Thompkins, the true star of this article.

If you haven't heard of Kenbrell Thompkins, everyone's favorite sleeper pick, then you are probably A) playing fantasy Fútbol not Football, or B) drifting off into space further than Sandra Bullock in the new GRAVITY trailer.

In a recent Yahoo article, Brad Evans captions a photo of Kenbrell, "Thompkins' sleeper label just expired." I beg to differ.

Thompkins' is currently the 34th receiver coming off the board, according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP. I fully believe he will crack the top-20 at the position this year and will emerge as the Patriots' leader in receiving yards and receptions.

Kenbrell is a physically gifted WR at 6-1, 195 lbs, with massive hands that make an NFL football look like the 2-colored Nerf ones we all used to play with back in elementary school. He has already locked up a starting spot as the Patriots primary outside WR and deep threat. He gets off the line of scrimmage quickly, catches the ball at its highest point when downfield, and controls his body nicely in traffic.

Plus, he has earned Brady's trust as they have developed excellent chemistry in the preseason to the tune of a 13 catch, 142 yards stat line. Yes, it's "only" the preseason, but that was also done in about 6 quarters of football, against first team defenses.

I am fully aware of the other weapons the Patriots have available. Vereen taking away targets in the passing game. Dobson not far behind on the depth chart. Gronk dominating targets when he comes back from injury.

Thompkins will be the go-to guy at the beginning of the season when it's time for a big play. Tom Brady has a nack for making good, although unheard of WRs, great. Once Kenbrell gets going in 2013 he will not slow down and can realistically lead the Patriots in receptions and yards. Think around AJ Green rookie numbers. The difference being: AJ had Dalton, Thompkins has Brady.

Amendola is going in the late 3rd/early 4th round according to his ADP. Let someone else take the risk on him there and instead try to build RB depth with Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, or Giovani Bernard at this point in the draft.

Target Kenbrell as early as the 6th round and draft with confidence.

2013 Reservations for Danny Amendola: 76-855-5

2013 Reservations for Kenbrell Thompkins: 88-1075-9

The Late Rounds: BENCH TARGETS

By Joseph Turnbull

Wondering who to draft when everyone else in your league has had one beer too many and players without a team like Michael Turner start appearing on your draft board? Then look no further. Here..... we...... go. 

 

note I view players such as Jordan Cameron Josh Gordon and Michael Vick as starters therefore they are not on this list. Tune in later for my release of my in depth top 100 where I analyze each player ranked for more info on players

The Late Rounds

WRs

Kenbrell Thompkins - Has emerged from the depths of unknown UDFA status to locking down a starting role in one of the highest scoring potential positions in fantasy (Tom Brady's deep threat)
What hindered Brandon Lloyd and Chad Johnson from thriving in this role was their lack of grasp of the playbook and continuity in the offense. Thompkins seems to have both. He and Brady are in sync and appears to be one of Bradys' favorite targets as displayed this preseason especially in the opener where he was targeted on the first 4 passes catching all of them. If he continues to grow and gain more trust from Brady this season nothing will hold him back from reaching great heights.
Round 6 grade check here for analysis

Chris Givens - Weeks 4-8 last year Givens had a historic stretch becoming the first WR in NFL history to catch a 50+ yard pass in 5 straight games. He is already an elite deep threat in the year and all reports suggest he has become a much more well rounded WR adding to his route tree. Givens will be the Rams number one WR and I believe the better fantasy bet over Tavon Austin. They are working on becoming more of a spread offense this season which should lead to more pass attempts and the addition of Jake Long protecting Bradfords' blind side should provide more time for Bradford to connect downfield. All adding to Givens' upside and fantasy outlook this season. Givens may very well be wildly inconsistent but there aren't many bench players in Fantasy who can win you weeks nearly by themselves. You don't have to draft him as an every week starter therefore can wait on your 3rd starting WR loading up on RB depth and pair him with a Vincent Brown or Kenbrell Thompkins and match up play them starting the other guy weekly until Givens is either streaking or playing a vulnerable secondary which he can easily burn and produce a monster game. He will be one of the biggest bench difference makers. Early round 7 grade

Vincent Brown - Downtown Brown as I like to refer to him as has survived the preseason without a knee injury (seemingly an epidemic at chargers camp) and now is all systems go for his breakout campaign. In his first career NFL start Brown totaled 97 yards and a truly spectacular TD catch showcasing impeccable ball skills. He also just missed another score after it was overturned but the debut still vividly sits in my memory. In his short career Brown has displayed great concentration and awareness along with stellar strong hands enough speed to run past corners and he boasts the best ball skills of any of the breakout WR candidates this year. His 2012 season was robbed from due to an ankle he broke last preseason while hauling in a dazzling TD pass. Brown should have little trouble leading the team in receiving and as long as health cooperates a 1000 yard 7 TD season is more than reasonable to project. If you load up on other positions early in your draft feel comfortable with Brown as your WR 3. He has WR 2 upside. Round 7 grade

Emmanuel Sanders - Has looked great thus far this preseason despite lack of production. He has snagged everything thrown his way fully stretching out to haul in passes up high. Sanders also seems to be very conscious of his impending UFA offseason leading me to believe he is quite money motivated. With the loss of Le'Veon Bell the Steelers will have to lean that much heavier on Big Bens arm adding to the prospects of Sanders. Sanders should be in line for 70+ catches putting him in the 1000 yard neighborhood with 5+ scores. Round 8 target.

Golden Tate - Truly a unique talent. Always been a strong slippery runner, but this preseason appears to be very explosive and his top end speed seems to carry burner label. Tough to project his numbers due to the mystery of just how much Seattle will open it up this year but as Russell Wilsons go to guy and man deep threat Tate makes for a superb flier in the round 8-9 range.

Michael Floyd - I would be much more bullish on him if the Cardinals OL were able to give Palmer time to get the ball downfield to Floyd, the teams premier deep option in Bruce Arians areal attack offense. Still capable of posting a 900 7 line and warrants draft consideration as early as round 8

Ruben Randle - Unfortunately behind Nicks and Cruz on the depth chart. Fortunately he is a well rounded WR with plus ball skills and great after the catch ability, as shown by his 3rd down conversion versus the Steelers this preseason, where he juked a screaming Ryan Clark en route to a big chunk of yardage from a bubble route. Nicks is an annual injury risk and Cruz although on track to start week one is just coming out of a walking boot. Randle is a must own for Nicks owners as a rare WR handcuff. A suggested round 9 selection should likely be reached for round 8 for Nicks owners. (Check my 2012 evaluation of young WRs. Randall has been on the radar for a while now waiting for his chance.)

Cordarrelle Patterson - In an era where we associate talent with the word "sick" C-Pat is hellacious. His after the catch skills are video game like. With a grand canyon like void left after Harvins departure there is a lot to be filled in large part by Patterson who possesses similar game breaking versatility. Round 9-10 flier

[Related: FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here's the link to register.]

Deep league Lottery Tickets:

Markus Wheaton

Jon Baldwin

Marlon Moore

Kenny Stills

TE Special: Julius Thomas



RBs


Isaac Redman: Was just named the starter for Week 1 in Pitt's backfield. Redman has a chance to stay in the mix if he performs well while given the start, but he was in the exact same situation last season and flopped ( 3.7 YPC in 2012). Felix Jones is a superior athlete and they should split touches at the very least. Avoid Redman (unless he happens to fall out to round 12 or later) as he will not stay upon the top of the depth chart for long and it looks as though Bell will be back sooner than originally thought as he's aiming for week 2.

 

Bernard Pierce - Earth shaking tenacity. Pierce is a very talented runner (4.9 ypc last yr). The Ravens are expected to revert back to a more run heavy approach with the loss of Pitta and departure of Boldin. With Ray rice expected to fill the passing void by lining up at WR while Pierce stays in the backfield his workload projection enters the 10-12 touch per game range and may gash tired defenses late as the Ravens closer. Look to pick him up round 8.

Roy Helu - Already explained in depth in our article about Shanahan/Morris/Helu here.

Bryce Brown - Very talented runner as showcased filling in for an injured McCoy late last season. Gashing the Panthers and Cowboys for 178 yards 2 TDs and 169 yards 2 TDs out bursts. Run Heavy team will make him a Bye week flex play at the least with great upside if McCoy goes down.

Kendall Hunter - HIGH priority handcuff. Sure Frank Gore seems ageless but all good things do come to an end eventually. Age and wear make Gore a plausible injury loss. Hunter is a MUST own for Gore owners and a nice bench target for others. Back and fully healthy from last seasons injury, Hunter showed great burst on his first carry Sunday night versus the Vikings. He's an explosive runner who will be a High end RB 2 if Gore goes down.

Christine Michael - Elite skill set. Will be an RB1 if lynch were to go down as he, and not Turbin, would be the lead back in what is arguably the best run system in the league.

Lance Dunbar - Talented runner behind one of leagues most injury prone backs. Must own for Murray owners. Just got a precautionary boot on his foot removed and Cowboys beat writers say he looks sharp and explosive. Small sample size, but has proven himself effective.

Joique Bell - The Bush handcuff to own. Will flirt with RB2 status if Bush goes down. Remember, Bell caught 52 passes for 485 yards in 2012.

Jacquizz Rodgers - adequate runner with good passing down skills. Has the most worn out RB with the most mileage in the league in front of him. If S-Jax loses another step or needs a breather, Rodgers will more than pick up the slack.


Deep League Lottery Tickets

Mike Goodson - 4 game suspension but by far the most talented RB behind Ivory on the Jets and the best 3rd down back they have. Ivory has had major health issues in his career and never been an every week starter. Goodson is in a much better situation as a talented runner with a 3 down skill set than his 4 game suspension and lack of mentioning around fantasy circles would lead you to believe. Ideal deep bench stash.

UPDATE: Exchange Harris for backfield mate Franklin
Dujuan Harris - Been listed as the Packers starter most of the preseason and started the dress rehearsal game before exiting with an injury. Packers will utilize him as a nice change of pace option behind Lacy and will be a fantasy starter if Lacy goes down.

Kenjon Barner - J-Stew may be sent to the Pup list moving Barner up the depth chart and in line for work behind a 30 year old tail back averging 2.4 ypc this preseason and another back nicknamed "twinky town"

Jordan Todman - averaging 8.15 ypc in 20 preseason carries could overtake injured Justin Forsett to be MJDs handcuff

QBs

Not really a fan of rostering 2 QBs unless you are partaking in the QBBC strategy so otherwise I recommend using that roster spot elsewhere. I have already discussed Vick in my draft guide and don't really view him as a bench player therefore I withdraw him from candidacy. If you want to try to hit a Home Run with a QB 2 look no further than EJ Manuel.

He holds the potential to be the next great rookie phenomina (Think RG3 last year). Tremendous athleticism and a very strong showing in the preseason showing poise and maturity for a rookie. If the Bills utilize the pistol offense he could make for a dynamic QB with backfield mate CJ Spiller

Well there you have it for the late rounds! More to come soon. Good luck drafting, as always feel free to add your opinion in the comments below.

Don't Trust Shanahan in 2013

Alfred Morris Owners: Tread Lightly

Alfred Morris. 1st Round Fantasy Pick. Your team's most important piece of the championship puzzle. It's almost too easy, you say?

The former Florida Atlantic star and NFL rookie crushed opposing defenses last season and even endeared the nation with his fetching nickname "Alf". The kid was killing them while rocking a nickname from an 80's sitcom about an alien. No team was more fun to watch than the Redskins in 2012 due to their young and explosive offensive talent. How many playoff teams can say in the history of the NFL can say their two best players were rookies? And while I've been impressed with Morris' talent, tape, and yards per carry production in his first year, a dark cloud potentially looms over the Washington Redskins backfield for his fantasy owners. 


[Related: FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here's the link to register.]

Roy Helu, Jr.

The third year running back from Tonga is now fully healthy and is hungrier than a fat kid a birthday party for touches in 2013. A player who was once thought of as the prototype back for Shanahan's zone blocking scheme is now quietly lighting up the preseason and impressing the man with the playbook.

I was real excited about Roy," "He’s looked healthy since he came back and he showed that to all you guys vs. Tennessee. Roy is a legit back. He can help us a lot."

- Kyle Shanahan


It's easy to brush past these comments as merely words in a press conference, but let's dig a little deeper into the Redskins current situation.

Catching Fire

Alfred Morris: 

• 11 receptions in 2012

Roy Helu: 

• 49 Receptions, 379 Yards Receiving in only 5 starts (2010)
• 14 receptions in one game (2010)

These numbers are alarming for anyone, especially those in a PPR league . Morris is exceptional at running downhill(5th in the NFL in yards after contact), but still struggles catching the ball out of the backfield. He is a quicker Michael Turner for the next generation.  But even Turner's upside was always capped by his inability to stay on the field on third down. Morris has reportedly worked vigorously on his receiving skills this offseason, but his matchup with Helu has already proven too much to bear.

Roy Helu dominated Big 12 defenses as a Nebraska cornhusker, and caught the eye of the Redskins front office upon the 2010 draft. The skins even traded up to snag him, which was a shocking deal from a team that values running backs less than any franchise. Shanahan saw something in Helu. And that something was the rare explosive ability to get up the field vertically, and more importantly an amazing pair of hands. With the exception of Jamaal Charles, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, and LeSean McCoy, Helu might boast the best receiving skills of any running back in the league.

The Washington Times' Rich Campbell has already stated Roy Helu will be the team's 3rd down back. Plain and simple he is much better in pass protection, and a vastly more dangerous threat out of the back field. So for all of you math heads out there, Helu will already be on the field for 33% of the redskins offensive snaps. Robert Griffin III looks likely he will be ready to go week 1, but he will be less likely to take off for yards on the ground. A less explosive Griffin will be looking to check down to his backs more on third and long, leaving even more yards for Helu.


You were expecting a Hunger Game's reference were you? My apologies for the cruel mislead. Tell Jennifer Lawerence I said what's up. 

Never Trust a Rat

“I got this rat, this gnawing, cheese eating f****' rat and it brings up questions... You know, see, Bill, like you're the new guy. Girlfriend... Why don't you stay in the bar that night I got your numbers. Social Security numbers. Everybody's f*****' numbers.”

Frank Costello

The Departed (2006)

If there’s anything Martin Scorcese’s 2006 crime-drama masterpiece taught us, it’s things are not always as they appear. Matt Damon's character, Colin Sullivan(a wealthy and esteemed police chief) vs Billy Costigan (an extremely poor wannabe cop with a troubled past). One was a man of power, and the other was worthless white trash destined to the drug trade.

Alfred Morris guaranteed to be the team's lead workhorse, and Helu a former failed draft pick destined to ride the bench and fulfill the scout team role all season long.

But things aren't always as they appear, are they?

The Washington Redskins offense is dominated by one man who controls the keys for fantasy greatness for many owners this season. Throughout his 15 year career as an NFL coach, Mike Shanahan's zone blocking scheme has transformed many random dudes off the street into fantasy superstars. Using more athletic lineman who are more adept at cutting down defenders, running backs are more free to hit the hole quickly and get to the next level. The one cut and go system produced monster seasons for Mike Anderson, Olandis Gary, Clinton Portis, Tatum Bell, Rebuen Droughns, Selvin Young, and Peyton Hillis. What do all these names have in come with the exception of Portis? Each of these players is AVERAGE. None of these backs had any real tangible success outside of Denver's system. Shanahan is a wizard at taking seemingly mediocre talent and creating offensive magic in the running game.

And if there's one thing fantasy owners invested in Shanahan's backfields have learned before, it's that you can't trust a rat.

Below are Mike Shanahan's rules given to every tailback in training camp.

-RUNNING BACKS-

1. FINISH EVERY PLAY FULL SPEED WITH/WITHOUT THE BALL. (RUNS & RECEPTIONS 40 YDS DOWNFIELD) (BLOCKING & FAKES).

2. OMIT FUMBLES – PROTECT THE BALL (SQUEEZE BALL/PRESSURE POINTS).

3. BLOCKING IS A MUST! (RUN & PASS) (ATTACK & STRIKE).

4. NO NEGATIVE YARDS – GET BALL UP FIELD IN A HURRY – (YOU GET ONE CUT).

5. STAY IN BOUNDS – OUR RB’S DON’T RUN OUT OF BOUNDS!!! (ATTACK & STRIKE DEFENDERS).

Each of the requirements are in ALL CAPS for a reason. There are more exclamation points on this list than a published work from Elaine Benes. These are not merely suggestions, but demands from an offensive dictator. It's Shanahan's way or the bench, and it's been that way for almost two decades. The coach is infamous for his dealings with his running backs(Shanahenigans), sometimes benching his players for entire games after turnovers. Fumbling drives him up the wall, and he almost always rides the hot hand at tailback.



Morris has built up credibility as the Redskins workhorse, and no one is suggesting one fumble or misstep by #46 will make Helu the team's lead back. But the "Shanarat" is infamous for having absolutely zero loyalties. If Helu were to get hot any point this season, he could easily reach 10-15 touches a game and push for a 65-35% time share. Or worse.

Shining in the Preseason

It's the preseason. I get it. It's a disgrace to real football everywhere. But as analysts and football enthusiasts, to neglect it entirely is to miss out on future break outs. Miles Austin, Victor Cruz, Chris Ivory, and numerous other stars first burst onto the scene in the games that do not count.

Roy Helu has been nothing short of productive this preseason.

Week 1: 13 Rushes for 57 yards (4.4 YPC)
Week 2: 1 Rush, 30 Yards and a TD.

There is no greater handcuff than Roy Helu this season for fantasy owners. If anything were to happen to Morris, Helu would instantly become a top 10 back with top 5 upside(especially in PPR). Alf is tremendous talent who should top 1,000 yards rushing in 2013. But spending a top 12 draft pick on a player in Shanahan's scheme always poses risk.


Morris Owners: Please handcuff the young player. Over pay for Helu in round 7. I beg of you.

For those of you that draft Alf with no plan to secure Helu , tread lightly.

Reservations for Roy Helu in 2013: 

580 yards rushing, 290 yards receiving. 5 total touchdowns.

2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide

By Joseph Turnbull

The 2013 Fantasy Football season is finally upon us.

Yes we are excited about the 2013 Fantasy Draft too Aaron.

I first want to give thanks for stopping by although I am positive you will be thanking me after reading our fantasy advice here at Reservations 4-Six. I'm as passionate and as dedicated a fantasy analyst/competitor as you will find. I devote all my free time to breaking down tape, Youtube highlights, NFL network replays, scouring the latest updates and doing scouting myself from June onward. Perhaps this devotion is frowned upon and labeled "none productive". I'm told all the time to "stop living in the fantasy world," that I'm "obsessed," That I'm a "loser," and That I "resemble Alan from the hangover" (And Yes I am using satirical air quotes while reading aloud). All of this maybe true and perhaps I am floating through life like a pile of trash but I can tell you who all this does benefit.... You guys. So let's jump on in the realm of fantasy football! ~Enjoy~


                                                                                                          

My winning draft strategy I have formulated this year involves some of the usual jargon you have seen around fantasy circles such as devaluing QB's due to the overwhelming depth at the position, but I believe the implementation of Building RB depth to your team (taking 3 backs in the first 4-5 rounds is a near necessity for flex leagues or highly competitive leagues in general) is essential to fantasy success. Avoiding high risk picks early on while aggressively loading up on pure upside and talent in the later rounds and of course obtaining Jimmy Graham, the greatest point differential player in the fantasy game.

[Related: FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here's the link to register.]

Joseph Turnbull’s top 25 Fantasy Players

1. Adrian Peterson - The biggest physical specimen in the game today (possibly ever) is a no brainer at number one. Even late last season he admitted to still not being all the way recovered from his injury which doesn’t seem believable but then again neither was his 2012 season. He rushed for over 2000 yards at less than 100% and now is aiming for 2500.

2. CJ Spiller - The case can most certainly be made for Martin, McCoy, and Charles here (yes I intentionally left off Foster) but I'm siding with spiller for a number of reasons. He totaled 1703 yards last season on just 250 touches which is truly astounding. I have broken down tape and watched games of all the games greats and he is the only back I find myself actually expecting to take it the distance every time he touches the ball. He gives you that hold your breath feeling. His burst, his acceleration, his lateral quickness is second to none. He has shown a lot of growth and maturity as a runner over his first 3 NFL seasons. Although still having bounce it outside tendencies Spiller has become an exponentially better between the tackles runner as well as a more decisive ball carrier. His career chart speaks for itself:

Year 1 - 74 carries 3.8 ypc 24 catches 6.5 yards per catch

Year 2 - 107 carries 5.2 ypc 39 catches 6.9 yards per catch

Year 3 - 207 carries 6.0 ypc 43 catches 10.7 yards per catch

Not only is he getting more efficient each season he's doing it with significantly more volume each time. He has yet to peak and set for his heaviest workload yet. I am sure you have all heard Bill's Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett say "It's real simple. We're going to give him the ball until he throws up. So he's either got to tap out or throw up on the field." There you have it, Spiller will get more touches than ever this year, making his 2013 ceiling colossal.

3. Jamaal Charles - Charles has survived the foot injury scare and is ready to enjoy his greatest season as a pro. All you really need to know about Charles for 2013 is he had a career low 5.3 ypc last season.... CAREER LOW!!!! It dropped his career ypc to 5.8. 5.8.... let's see.... yeah that's the greatest career ypc in NFL HISTORY and last season he was just 10 months removed from an ACL tear. These stats do not lie Jamaal Charles is the most efficient RB in NFL history and his situation is the brightest it has ever been. He no longer is handcuffed by a coaching philosophies that employ plodders to have more touches (thanks again Todd Haley for your idiotic Thomas Jones workload) The Chiefs are primed for their biggest offensive season in years under Andy Reid and his schedule may very well be the easiest of all backs this season with a line up card of: Jags (30th) Eagles(23rd) Titans(24th) Buffalo(31st) Cleveland(19th) Indy(29th) Giants(25th) Dallas(22nd) Oakland(18th) twice all who ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run last season. Yes, Andy Reid will run a pass first offense, but there's no denying Charles is by far their best weapon. He will be the focal point of their attack as previewed in their preseason opener (Charles 14 snaps: 8 touches) which is ridiculous on many levels given it was the preseason opener. Another item of note is from 04-08 Brian Westbrook averaged 71 catches a season despite missing 9 games over that stretch and McCoy had a 55 catch avg in his 4 seasons under Reid. Catching passes is yet another premium attribute in Jamaal’s' game. He is the most talented back Reid has ever had and he has Alex "checkdown" Smith under center. His upside is scary.

4. Lesean McCoy - The transition from Reid to Kelly alone paves the way for McCoy to have a massive bounce back season. Although not quite transferable it is note worthy that Kelly ran the ball 64.1% of the time over the past 4 years which differs significantly from the 44.6% NFL average over that span. Vick looks great thus far and primed for a big bounce back season as well. The Eagle offense is shaping up to be a very explosive one with the up-tempo style implemented. Its the same style the Patriots used last season that helped them lead the league in offensive snaps along with paving the way for Ridley to gash worn out defenses with the hurry up runs. McCoy too has looked great this preseason and there's no denying his elite skill set. Remember he was a consensus top 3 pick in fantasy last season and for good reason. As long as health holds he will finish as a top 5 fantasy back this season totaling 1700+ yards and double digit scores especially running behind the best OL of his career with All Pro Jason Peters back and the insertion of number 4 overall pick Lane Johnson.

5. Doug Martin - Last seasons number 2 fantasy back despite the loss of his two premier guards. Although there is a bit of sophomore slump possibility Martin carries one of the highest floors of any player in fantasy. He's a rock. With absolutely no running mate Martin is a rare 3 down work horse in todays game. He had a head injury scare but looks all set for the regular season so don't let that hinder you from selecting a back who could very well have 2000 total yards this season (1926 last year)

6. Trent Richardson - The Cleveland offense seems primed to make one of the biggest leaps this season under new OC Norv Turner. Turner is targeting a 300 carry 60 catch season workload for T-rich including he wants his best player on the field including 2 minutes situations (spots where many teams insert a 3rd down specialist) If T-rich gets in the neighborhood of that workload he’s going to produce over 1500 total yards with the upside for much more depending on just how efficient he can prove to be when healthy. Last season he played through multiple injuries which played a major role in his 3.6 ypc. Don't let that discourage you T-rich is much more explosive than that stat would have you believe and is reportedly quicker than last season after shedding 7 lbs. He's the centerpiece of a rising offense. Draft with confidence in the top 8.

7. Marshawn Lynch - Despite a career high in carries last season (315) Lynch enjoyed a career high in ypc (5.0). Lynch will again be the workhorse on one of the most run heaviest of teams in one of the best run systems in football and is coming off a career year totaling just under 1800 yards with 12 total TDs in an offense that should only continue to get better. Lynch is one of the safest round 1 picks you can make.

8. Jimmy Graham - Jimmy is one of the biggest physical freaks in the game today. His athleticism and talent is unquestioned. "last year was very difficult playing all season with that much pain" ohh yeah and he's pretty darn tough playing through back injuries which lead to his down season of 982 yards and 9 TDs over 15 games. Graham was still easily the games number 1 TE and now enters a contract year fully healthy at the prime age of 26. He has been lighting up Saints camp and with the nagging injuries to Colston and the uncertainty of other weapons Brees will likely lean that much heavier on the games premier TE. Just two seasons ago he totaled 99 catches 1310 yards and 11 TDs and there's no reason to believe that now once again healthy and money motivated that he can't at least match those totals this season.

9. Arian Foster - I will stop the slide here despite the argument for an even lower ranking with such a downward pointing arrow. Foster is coming off a 391 touch season with a career low 4.0 ypc and 5.4 yards per catch. He also only totaled 217 yards receiving after eclipsing 600 the previous two seasons. He was noticeably less explosive last season as well and now he's limping into the season with back and calf injuries. It would be quite illogical for the Texans to give him yet another massive workload (393, 339/over 13 games in 2011, and 391 last season) He carries a lot of body breakdown potential this season and the Texans have the best number 2 runner in the league behind him in Ben Tate. Let someone else take the risk!

10. Calvin Johnson - What is there to say? Number one fantasy WR the last two seasons coming off a historic 1964 yard campaign. You can easily make the case to bump him higher.

11. Dez Bryant - Dez has the highest ceiling of any WR this season. He was the number 1 fantasy wide out over the last 13 games of 2012 and posted an absurd 879 yard 10 TD line over the final 8 games. Dez has finally arrived as not only a dominant player but a mature one. There's not a corner he can't beat and not a coverage he can't blow by. Dez is a special talent with the best after the catch skills in the game. He's finally in sync with Romo as shown by their route adjustment against the cardinals in their last preseason game. The best of Dez has yet to be seen at age 24 but we got a nice preview of what mammoth production he can total over the second half of last season. Dez is certainly capable of an unworldly 1500-1600 yard 18-20 TD season which would make him a familiar asset on those teams hoisting their championship trophy.

12. Ray Rice - A safe/solid pick at the end of round one. He carries a fairly high floor and seems locked in for 1500 total yards but not much more with Bernard Pierce in the wings.

13. Matt Forte - Looks bigger this year than he has in his career but carries the same burst and shake. Appears likely to have bulked up for goal line work, something that has eluded him over the past few seasons. Under new coach Marc Trestman Forte should enjoy a near or career high catch total and if he does in fact throw in red zone work Forte will be a great value pick in the 11-15 pick range. Either way Forte has a solid floor and is every bit worth a top 15 pick.

14. Stevan Ridley - Gets the edge on Alf due to Mike Shanahan’s history with exchanging 1000 yard backs. Ridley is a lock for double digit scores in an offense that is clicking on all cylinders in the preseason. With the loss of their receiving weapons from the last year the pats could very well turn to the run game to fill the void where Ridley is every bit capable of doing. He should at least match his total from last year getting over 1200 yards and adding 12 or so scores.

15. Alfred Morris - Not nearly as talented as his stats suggest and as mentioned above its hard to fully trust Shanahan who has spoiled many fantasy aspirations with his on a whim depth chart flips. Roy Helu is a talented back who is every bit capable of taking the reigns and producing massive totals in that run system and he's already locked down the 3rd down role. Never-the-less I will still side with Morris over the next group of elite WRs due to lack of depth at RB and the drop off that will shortly follow. If you do take Morris just be sure to target Helu as early as round 9 in competitive 12 team leagues.
[More in-depth analysis of Morris and Helu here!]

16. Brandon Marshall - The Cutler to Marshall combo is dynamite for Marshall owners. Marshall has long been one of the games elite WRs and is finally in a situation to unleash his full potential. Marshall notched his 4th, 100 catch season with a career high 118 which he took for 1508 yards and 11 TDs also career highs and that was with a more conservative coach. Now under pass happy Trestman Marshall owners will be praising the name. In Trestman we Trust! (Trustman?)

17. Maurice Jones-Drew - 1641 total yards is his low from 09-11 and that was in just 14 games. Yes, I get it high mileage and injury risk. Already 28. In a terrible offense. I've heard it all but MJD looks like the same back after his preseason debut. If he can stay healthy which I believe he will 1600 total yards is his floor. Don't like the offense? As funny as it might sound Gabbert had the offense clicking for much of their last preseason game operating largely in a hurry up style offense. Getting the ball out quick with velocity and placing it on the money. He showed poise and growth as a passer and could very well breakout this year and lead the Jags to... well... respectability providing more scoring opportunities for MJD who lets not forget lead the league in rushing just two seasons ago and is in a contract year.

18.  AJ Green - Monster talent entering the ever so anticipated 3rd year breakout season. Well their won't be a breakout by definition due to his production his first two seasons but he certainly can build on his 1350 yard 11 TD season and take his game and the Bengals to new heights. His upside is some what capped however with Andy Daltons arm limitations, so don't step out and draft over Dez or Marshall.

19. Reggie Bush - A match made in heaven for the Lions offense. Last season Joique Bell had 52 catches and 900 total yards on just 134 touches, very productive for a pedestrian talent. Insert bush and have him as the lead back and watch the total yards spew. Bush will have a high weekly floor regardless of match up due to his versatility. His fantasy worth is not dependent on getting 20 carries or scoring. Even his bad games will still be useful lines. Just take a look at his last preseason game: 15 rush yards 44 receiving for 1 half of play. Not good by any means but Still set to crack double digit points for the game. The lions also received the fewest number of 8 man boxes last season. last years lead back Leshoure saw a stacked box just 6% of the time yet only managed  3.7 ypc, and his longest run of the year was just 16 yards en route to one of Pro Football Focuses worst rankings in elusiveness in the league. Bush has averaged 4.67 ypc the last two seasons and should make his fair share of big runs against softer boxes. Bush should approach if not eclipse 300 touches this season putting him in the 1500-1600 total yard range with a shot at double digit scores. He's an excellent RB 2

Bush looks very happy to be in Detroit. We are happy he is there too!

20. Chris Johnson - Wildly inconsistent for much of the past 3 years but CJ still warrants high end RB2 production. Effort is always in question but when he receives blocking he still resembles "CJ2K" as shown this preseason with his vintage run showcasing how lethal he still is in the open field. He will cede short yardage work to Shonn Greene, but CJ has eclipsed 1000 yards in all 5 of his NFL seasons going over the 1200 yard mark in 4 of them. His total yards for this season should end up like bush around the 1500-1600 total yard range but carries less scoring potential in a much lesser offense with Greene a potential TD vulture.

21. Julio Jones - Another Premium talent entering his fabled 3rd season. Roddy White (32) Tony Gonzales (37) aging and declining. Jones 24, underwent a diet overhaul this offseason cutting out beef and pork to better his nutrition is entering his prime. A massive leap could be in the making for Julio this season but I still think His expectations should be somewhat weighed down for I don't think he will end up cracking the top 3 at the position just yet ( just 20th in targets last season). Expect him to build on last year’s totals but finish in the 4-6 range at the position.

22. Demaryius Thomas - Much like Julio has a lot of competition for targets but with Manning under center and a top 5 skill set at the position coming off a 94/1434/10 season and still just 25 Thomas is locked in the top 25 with the last of the elite labels at wide out.

23. Drew Brees - As much as I suggest waiting on a QB you simply can't pass up Brees at the end of round 2. The prospects of pairing him with Charles/McCoy/Martin/Spiller is too tough to pass much less if he falls into the lap of the guy with the first pick. Brees + AP is one of the most lethal combinations you can have in fantasy. Brees is coming off back to back historic seasons and has a 5 year average of 4,946 yards 38 TDs. Just beyond words and truly in a class by himself. With Sean Payton back and the Saints D still atrocious what’s to stop Brees from a 3rd straight 5,000 yard campaign?

24. Steven Jackson - Entering age 30 season with heavy wear and tear and significantly declined skills Jackson is definitely a candidate for the avoid list. However, he did look just fine in the Falcons last preseason game he is in the best situation of his career as he will actually get to see what an endzone looks like and what its like to be in the postseason. All should be motivating factors to perhaps squeeze the last bit of football he has left en route to what would astoundingly be his 9th straight 1,000 yard season with a solid bet for double digit pay dirt splashes.

25. Larry Fitzgerald - *Sigh of relief* at least that’s what I imagine his first reaction to having Carson Palmer throwing him passes instead of Max Hall John Skelton or the other band of misfits the Cardinals threw under center the last couple seasons. Add new pass first HC Bruce Arians into the mix and the situation is finally ripe for Larry Fitz. Still one of the games best I view him as a tweener between elite WR production and the next tier. He most certainly has the capabilities to resurface as a top 5 WR but I still won't be drafting him over any of the WRs above due to their greater upside.

Just off the list: Aaron Rodgers, Frank Gore, Lamar Miller, David Wilson, Victor Cruz, Danny Amendola

There you have it, my top 25. Let me know in the comments below if you disagree with these rankings. Always willing to listen to a good argument back up by stats.

Now As my good buddy nacho would say "lets get down to the nitty gritty" Round by Round Targets to build a championship team.

Round 3

Lamar Miller - Yes, the "open competition" talk does put a scare on his draft prospects but Daniel Thomas has a career 3.54 ypc has a history of fumbles and is an overall softy despite his size and lacks explosiveness. He's a pedestrian talent that Miller will firmly run past soon enough. Miller had a 4.9 ypc last year. Has shown very good burst and elite lateral quickness with darting cutting ability. He fumbled his first carry in his first career start in the preseason opener likely due to jitters (no history of ball security issues) and had a drop on a 3rd down in the last preseason game because he turned his head downfield before securing the pass. Not unforgivable or are those things unable to be cleaned up. They just happened to come in a short span with limited sample size and sadly Joe Philbin is reading far too much into it. He will come around as the rest of fantasy football nation will. Miller has tremendous upside as a potential 3 down workhorse for the team that had the 7th most fantasy points produced on the ground last season. The Miami offense is another young offense on the rise and Miller will be the focal point of that offense sooner rather than later. After working out with Frank Gore in the offseason Gore came away with this in regards to Miller "Lamar is probably the fastest" in comparison to Edgerin James, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis and himself. OC Mike Sherman was also quoted by reporters earlier this offseason that he "wants a running back who can do it" an every down player who doesn't need to be rotated. Well.... it definitely won't be Daniel Thomas filling that role it will be Miller. Miller has RB1 upside. Take advantage of his falling ADP and enjoy.

David Wilson - David Wilson will be one of the most entertaining players to watch this season. He is truly electric. He possesses elite RB skills. Elite burst and acceleration with tremendous balance and incredible strength for his size. He finishes off runs with tenacity and falls forward. He's a work in progress in 3rd down situations as he still needs to improve pass protection and he's purely a body catcher as a receiver. He's set to open the season in a committee but that may not last too long as he is far superior to running mate Andre Brown. You want lightning in a bottle ? take a chance on Wilson. He will likely be an inconsistent fantasy producer but definitely provide multiple difference making performances and has the potential to break away as one of the leagues next great backs.

Victor Cruz - Monitor his status of course but in the mid-late 3rd round there's not a better blend of high floor and upside than Cruz. He's a lock to be a top 15 WR (back to back top 13 finishes) and he could easily crack the top 10 or even top 6 at the position if Nicks were to be out for a long period which isn't a stretch.

Honorable mention: Demarco Murray. At the back end of round 3 I would give him a strong look. He will almost certainly miss games but The risk is less and you pick again soon so you can still land the likes of Amendola, Vincent Jackson and Eddie Lacy in a lot of leagues early 4th round. He has a very high ceiling and will pay off nicely when healthy

Round 4

Vincent Jackson - Finished last season as the number 6 WR. That finish came without a fluky TD total (just 8) So although his yards will probably come down a bit from the 1384 he posted last year there's room for scoring growth. The Bucs will boast one of the games best ground attacks behind Martin, It's a contract year for Freeman so he has much incentive to play sharp and get the ball to his best weapon and Tampa Bay plans to move V-jax all over the field. Sending him in motion and playing the slot as well as outside to keep from defenses being able to key on him. There's a lot of value with V-jax in round 4.

Danny Amendola - Clicking with Brady as if they have played their whole careers together. Loads of potential filling the Welker role void in addition to the other passing game losses the pats have suffered. He carries a lot of injury risk but his ceiling sits in the top 10 at the position.

Antonio Brown - After watching tape on Brown it's quite obvious that he is one of the most explosive WRs in the league. He can start and stop with the best of them, runs crisp routes, possesses great hands and has deceptive speed. He's taking over Mike Wallace’s "X" position and should serve as the teams primary deep threat, but Brown being no one trick pony has the makings of a true breakout as a complete WR and the teams number one option. Big Ben loves him "He can be as good as he wants to be... He's coming along as a number one guy" and so should you. He received over 8 targets per game last year should receive 10+ this season as the now number one option which is why I consider him a dark horse to lead the league in catches as a 100 catch candidate

Eddie Lacy - Yes, Lacy definitely looks to be on the hefty side, but it has not effected his work. Lacy has looked very good in limited action showing good burst and great strength. He's set for the lead back role with the Packers who want to run the ball more. With pass protection deficiencies running the ball effectively is one way to keep rushers honest and Rodgers upright. Going back to last season Cedric Benson averaged 23 touches a game weeks 2-4 including the Monday night game against the Seahawks in which Rodgers went down 8 times in the first half. Seattle has one of the stoutest run defenses and what did the Packers come out and do in the 2nd half trailing? They fed Benson despite his lack of productivity. When Alex Green became the starter he had 20+ carries in each of his first 3 starts before the Packers realized he couldn't get it done (20 carries 35 yards against the Rams). What do you take from this ? The Packers have been searching for a ball carrier to hand it to 20 times a game and Lacy a far superior talent to those two is the guy to do it. Lacy is also a strong bet for double digit TDs in one of the most high octane offenses. Draft Lacy with confidence as your RB3 and enjoy the RB2 production.

Honorable mention: Pierre Garcon - Like Murray a huge risk reward pick. If his foot can hold up and his explosion isn’t hindered Garcon will be a WR1 as a target monster playing Shanahan’s "X" position. Electing not to have surgery on his foot though could prove costly as it is very susceptible to re-injury.

Round 5

Chris Ivory - Carries a lot of risk but the risk is lowered in round 5 as an RB3. This pick flopping won't kill your playoff hopes but it could very well pay major dividends. Ivory has a career 5.1 ypc. He runs with a tenacity not often seen. Seemingly looking for contact. You will love the type of player he is. He truly does "leave it all on the field" Behind the jets underrated O-Line Ivory will be a solid RB2 even with just 15 carries a game, but as the season wears on if he stays healthy he will develop more into a low end RB1 with more touches. Mike Goodson is M.I.A and Bilal Powell is a mediocre talent who is of no threat to Ivory’s starting position. Health is the only thing that can hold him back.

Ahmad Bradshaw - Another regular injury risk but will produce nice RB2 totals when healthy. He will be a 3 down back for the Colts as the superior talent to Ballard as well as a far greater pass protector. Maybe you only get 12 games from Bradshaw this year but they will be mid-high RB2 numbers and as long as you handcuff him with Ballard who's an underrated talent you can deal with the low end RB2/high end RB3 totals he produces as a fill in.

Matthew Stafford - Thrown for over 10,000 yards in his first two full seasons as a starter. On the most pass happy of teams in NFL history. Team has a vulnerable Defense providing ample shootout/catch up potential. Has the most dominant WR in football and now has Reggie Bush as a security blanket. What's not to like ?

Honorable Mention: Rob Gronkowski - I will stick to the trend here as yet another Risk/Reward pick. Appears to be in avoidance of the pup list to start the season. Could easily miss the first 2-3 games but will be a colossal weekly difference maker at such a weak position. He could be an absolute monster down the stretch if he can regain form as Brady’s number one option. He has 28 TDs over his last 27 games.

Round 6

Cecil Shorts - My favorite WR target outside of Dez this year. Shorts posted a 979 7 line across 14 games last year which placed him 22nd at the position. More impressive was he did that behind shaky QB play and limited snaps due to a reserve role to start the season. Now heading into his 3rd year breakout campaign as the teams go to option Shorts is in for a big season. Gabbert has looked sharp and could easily rise from the bottom of the league to provide stable serviceable QB play. Couple that with the Jags likelihood of playing catch up in many of their games Justin Blackmon’s 4 game suspension and you have a target monster in the making. Draft without hesitation in round 6. He's an incredibly talented and vastly underrated WR.

Vernon Davis - Another guy shaping up as one of my favorites. A great consolation if you can't land Jimmy and don't want to take the Gronk Plunge. He appears locked in as a top 3 TE and should be getting pushed up everyone’s boards. Kaepernick began finding Davis often in the playoffs and the two look primed to become a lethal combo this season as they have already built up chemistry "seemingly unstoppable" is how CSN Bay Area's Matt Maiocco described their connection. With Crabtree out Davis is primed to step in as Kaepernick’s go to target. Davis is still one of the biggest match up nightmares for defenses and it appears his elite TE label will be resurrected.

Colin Kaepernick - Sticking to the San Fransisco, trend Kaepernick is a favorite. He's actually my number one QB target this year. He has the highest ceiling of any player in fantasy with his seemingly mythical skill set of Michael Vick legs with Peyton Manning arm. He trained with Olympic runners this offseason and has gotten even quicker and faster. That's scary to think about considering how lethal his athleticism already was. He has a laser for an arm with pinpoint accuracy to boot. Despite losing Crabtree Kaepernick has the potential to put it all together this year for a truly historic season.

Honorable Mention: Jordy Nelson - looked to be a safe option not too long ago now carries a bit of risk with the injury uncertainty. However HC mike McCarthy has stated optimism for his week one outlook and beyond. Nelson is risking but has a high ceiling in the Packers offense. 22 TDs last 28 games. Carried a 4th round grade prior to injury.

Round 7

If you have still waited on a QB now is the time to take the leap. Hopefully you can still land Targets Wilson and Luck in this round but if not, wait a round or two and select Vick and pair him with an Eli or Big Ben, to protect yourself from injury worries, and hope to play opponent match-ups. In Fact even if you already have your QB 1, I would still suggest selecting Vick in round 9 giving you a high upside QB 2 to play if your starter has a tough match-up. If Vick is a bust it doesn't hurt you too bad waiting for him in rounds 8-9. If you hit on him it gives you a trade chip and a great QBBC partner.

TY Hilton - Colts most dynamic player. Already making big time plays in preseason. The Colts will look to exploit mismatches with him and look to him as their big play guy. He's a dynamic return man and don't be surprised if he eclipses 100 yards rushing on the year either. Nothing to boast about but it all adds value to Hilton. Look for him to produce 1100 total yards with 7-8 scores. Enjoy WR2 production from your WR3.

Ben Tate - If your a Foster owner you have to draft Tate. You can't afford to miss on him and be left with a potential bust as your first pick. Tate could very well produce stand alone flex value if the Texans choose to implement more of a committee in hopes of keeping Foster fresh and healthy.

Honorable Mention: Josh Gordon - Will sit the first two games due to being a knucklehead. But will return from suspension week 3 as the teams go to WR. In Norv Turners vertical scheme Gordon is a perfect fit. He carries a lot of red flags off the field and his work ethic/demeanor is questioned as well but he's an incredibly talented youngster in an offense that will best utilize his skill set. Very high ceiling. Very low floor.

I hope this round-by-round analysis of players to target helps give you an advantage in the early rounds of your draft. As always, leave your thoughts in the comments below. Check out our article on who to draft in the late rounds with upside for your Fantasy bench!