Tired of falling short of Fantasy glory? Want this to be your year? Ready to commit to the research grind to win your draft? Do you enjoy a good American Cheeseburger now and then? If you answered yes to any or all of those questions than you couldn't of picked a better place for your Fantasy Draft needs. There's always different draft philosophies and talks of "Value Based Drafting" but if you want to reach the pinnacle of success in the fantasy world you must look at it differently. No one knows how the season is going to go. There's constant variance so what you must do is draft the team with the most potential. Draft players only with combinations of talent and good situations to give yourself the best chance at big production. Talented players in starting roles who are on the cusp of NFL stardom and talented vets who are either underrated or coming off a down yr due to misfortune and not a decline in physical skills who can thus bounce back nicely. The later you get in the draft the more you turn to "upside" with your picks. Using this draft style you are never drafting players such as Michael Turner, Frank Gore, Deangelo Williams or even players such as Larry Fitzgerald or Andre Johnson because at best you can only "get what you paid for" and won't be able to "turn a profit" on the pick. Allow me to explain while you curse my credibility. Fitz and Andre are 2 of the best WRs in the league and have been for about a decade. In Andres' case its simple. He's on the wrong side of 30, never had double digit TD's, battling injuries every yr and now is on one of the most conservative offenses in the league with a QB who carries his own health risks. His days of 1500 yard seasons are behind him and in today's NFL you can find other guys later in your draft who will out produce 1200 and 8 production possibly even via the waiver wire. In Larrys' case it has more to do with situation and where you have to get him. He won't have stable QB play and despite his 1400 8 TD campaign last yr in the same situation I'm simply not touching Fitz in the top 20 because what he did last season is his ceiling. Scoring opportunities will be few and far between and his yardage total will be hard to repeat and even with last yrs numbers he still finished just 6th in standard scoring. He's no lock for top 3 production at the position. If I'm going to take a WR that high in today's NFL he will have to have big TD potential along with the big yardage which is why I consider only 1 WR after Calvin Johnson worth taking in the top 20. But I'll get to that later.
Here's the only way to draft if you only want to win
The Start
The Fantasy Game today is much more complex and much much deeper than ever. In fact this is possibly the deepest Fantasy Draft of all time featuring multiple 5000 yard passers and countless 1000 yard WRs. Workhorse RBs are a dieing breed and thus must be valued at a premium. Foster, Rice, McCoy are as close to a consensus top 3 as we have. After the top 3 many like to venture off into the Aaron Rodgers realm which is fine. Its the safe route, but safe can only get you so far. RB depth is far too thin this yr to disregard. With the latest injuries to Ryan Mathews and Trent Richardson, Darren McFadden should draw serious consideration at 4. Yes, he carries his own red flags, but his upside and situation must be realized. McFadden is as talented as they come and without Michael Bush to vulture TDs his upside becomes greater than any other back. "Roll the dice" on McFadden and reap the ever so great benefits. Drafts slots 5-8 are tough spots to pass on one of the elite QBs because of the "uncertainty" surrounding the remaining backs. However, when you take in account the potential scoring differential between the true every down work horses and the remaining time share backs these picks almost certainly must be used on Ryan Mathews, Trent Richardson, Demarco Murray and Chris Johnson. All every down backs without competition for carries and bolstered by receiving skills and goal line duties. Once the elite upside backs are off the board look to snatch Calvin Johnson just before turning to the QB route as he has the biggest potential scoring differential between him and the next group of WR's and unlike Andre and Fitz, Calvin is still getting better and holds 20 TD potential. At this stage its safe to throw tiers out the window and snatch up an elite QB starting with Cam Newton. Listen to what history tells you if you must and buy into a serious decline in rushing production and thus a possible Sophomore Slump, but there's never been a QB like Cam to enter the league. He's the ultimate weapon. He's a bigger stronger Vick without the durability issues. He had a historic rookie season with a shortened offseason behind him and QB's tend to have their biggest jumps in production from years 1-2 much like WR's from years 2-3. He has every attribute needed to light up the fantasy world and he's simply unstoppable at the goal line. After Cam take your pick of the NFL's elite gunslingers in your leagues "arm race". The only player worth taking over one of these signal callers is Jamaal Charles. Sure, hes coming off an ACL injury and will cede goal line work to running mate Peyton Hillis, but from all accounts Charles is healthy and more than ready for the season. His workload is nothing to worry about either considering Jamaal is one of the most efficient RB's of all time (6.1 career ypc). So don't forget to hail to the chief in your draft and enjoy the top 10 RB production you will get out of your RB2 if you pair him with the likes of McFadden, Mathews, T-Rich, Murray or Chris Johnson.
Elite Wingmen
After the big 5 at the QB position and Charles it's time to start considering AP, MJD, Vick and Julio Jones. Yes, Julio Jones as the 2nd WR off the board. Forte is an obvious safe play in this range, but with Michael Bush vulturing TD's and Cutler airing it out more this yr Forte lacks premium upside. AP will be a major difference maker likely producing RB1 totals in the 2nd half, but obviously carries a bit of risk and low early season expectations. MJD appears to be a headache you pass on to another owner to deal with. After his first full offseason as the Eagles starter and hungrier than ever Michael Vick is primed for perhaps his greatest season as a pro. The Eagles offense will bounce back in a big way this year lead by the highlight reel. Julio Jones totaled 959 yards and 8 TDs in just 13 games as a rookie. Now fully healthy and primed to be the offenses go to option Julio has mammoth upside. I look for him to produce yardage totals similar to Victor Cruzs' from a year ago as he will be a big play machine likely eclipsing 1400 yards and double digit TD's in an offense that will be very pass heavy. Even if he were to have the slightest uptick in production from last yrs per game average he would still be sitting on a 1200 yard 10 TD season which wouldn't kill you even as your 2nd pick. The upside with Julio is well worth it. You can't reach to far on him. As you head into round 3 your short list of target players should include:
With Blounts' fumbling issues, lack of passing down skills and overall lackadaisical behavior Martin, a 3 down back, holds loads of potential as the lead back for what is to be one of the leagues most run heavy offenses. The Bucs also have the easiest rushing schedule according to last yrs numbers for what that's worth. Martin doesn't have "wow" factor but he's solid in all aspects of the game with good vision, instincts, cut ability, power and hands. Blount may cap his upside to an extent but there's no question Martin will rack up big time yardage as a rookie.
Harvin finished 7th at the position last yr. He lead all WRs in touches and was 2nd in yards after catch behind Wes Welker. From weeks 10-17 he averaged over 100 yards per game with Christian Ponder under center. After an offseason to gain more rapport with Ponder and a full season with Ponder under center the sky is the limit for Harvin in 2012. Especially when you consider the Vikings will likely lean even more on Harvin as the ease AP back.
honorable mention: Hakeem Nicks
Adding Framework to your foundation
Round 4 target list:
Dez Bryant is entering his 3rd season in the NFL and we all know the lure of "3rd yr breakouts". He's notarized those claims with an outstanding camp and appears primed to be the focal point of the Cowboys passing attack. He will only further be leaned upon with Miles Austin likely having lingering hamstring issues throughout the yr and Jason Witten now out for the preseason with a spleen injury. Dez has the ability to beat any DB and is a dark horse candidate to lead the league in receiving TD's.
Demaryius Thomas is another monster upside WR entering his 3rd season. He's big. He's Strong. He's Fast. And hes incredibly dangerous after the catch. He even trimmed down this offseason to add more quickness and explosion to his game making his potential with Manning under center lethal. Thomas was able to strike fear into defenses with Tebow throwing him passes (had a 103.5 ypg average from wks 13-16 with 3 TDs) the sky is the limit with Peyton.
2 yrs ago Maclin finished as the number 11 WR in Fantasy at age 22. Last season his 3rd yr campaign was robbed by a mysterious illness that forced him to lose 30 lbs in training camp and the overall disappointment of the Eagles offense as a whole, but was still able to post a very respectable 859 yard 5 TD line in 13 games. Now fully healthy and set to be the lead WR for the Eagles offense that is ready to wreak havoc on the league Maclin is primed for a huge season.
Reggie Bush has said he wants to lead the league in rushing this season. So maybe that's not something to buy into, but his prior seasons' production and utilization for this season is. He had his first 1000 yard season averaging a salivating 5ypc in 2011 and added 43 catches. With the lack of Receiving threats on the Dolphins roster that total is very likely to only go up. He's their only weapon. He will be used in the backfield, out wide and in the slot giving him numerous ways to produce. He could easily have 500 receiving yards this season giving him 1500 total yard potential which is nothing to overlook in round 4 as a potential 3rd RB.
Round 5 target list:
From his Breakout game in week 7 against the Cardinals, Brown lead the Steelers in yards (846) Targets and only had one game under 8 fantasy points which came against the Niners when Ben played on a broken ankle. Now entering his 3rd season and in a pass happy Todd Haley offense with an upgraded O-line, Brown holds 1300 yard 10 TD upside. Don't let his lack of TDs last yr fool you. That number is very skewed due to bad luck as he actually lead the team in redzone targets. He's Roethlisbergers favorite target and rightfully so as Brown simply catches everything thrown his way no matter where the ball is placed or how many defenders crowd his catch radius.
Antonio Gates has never had less than 7 TDs in a season and has had at least 50 yards or a TD in 75% of his games. He's Mr. Consistant and during Vincent Jacksons holdout yr, Gates was on historic pace with 782 yards and 10 TDs in just 10 games with many of those games being either not finished or at much less than 100%. Now fully healthy and without V-Jax yet again Gates should step back into the elite tier of TEs as Rivers will lean Heavily on him this season.
Hernandez is yet another freak at the TE position. Last yr he totaled 910 yards and 7 scores in just 14 games and was eased back after his knee injury. Although overshadowed by Gronk, Hernandez is another uncoverable target with big play ability on the team that will likely lead the NFL in pass attempts this season with the reunion of Josh McDaniels. And if the playoffs are any indication of things to come you may just see him in the backfield getting ample carries as well only further adding to his production.
Round 6 targets:
Pierre Garcon will be one of the biggest difference makers in your fantasy draft. He finished just shy of a 1000 yards last yr with Kerry Collins, Dan Orlovski and Curtis Painter chunking up ducks. Now in Washington and slotted to play the X WR position (the go to option in shanahans offense) and with a QB to compliment his skill set to perfection in RGIII, Garcon will explode in 2012. He's received nothing but rave reviews at camp and turned in an excellent preseason debut. Garcon is one of the most explosive WR's in the game and will be unleashed this yr as he and RGIII will likely step right onto the field for the skins' as one of the leagues most lethal combos. Snag him round 6 and watch round 4 or greater production roll in.
Eric Decker appears primed for a 1000 yard 10 TD type season with Peyton at the helms. He has nice route running ability, great hands, decent ability after the catch and good ball skills. He's a great buy if he slips into round 6.
The Cheifs want to split 500 carries between Hillis and Charles this season leaving plenty of workload to go around in KC. Hillis will batter defenses early wearing them out for charles to blow by them. He will also receive most if not all goal line work which will lead to some nice TD potential in an underated offense. He's reunited with OC Brian Dabol who he enjoyed his breakout campaign two years ago in Cleveland. The stars seem to be aligning nicely for Peyton "big guns" Hillis.
Honorable mention: Stevan Ridley
Round 7 targets:
Denarius Moore is probly the most talented WR that most have never heard of. His skills are a blend of Mike Wallace speed and explosiveness and Mike Williams ball skills. He's currently battling a lingering hamstring issue but there's still plenty of time to get the kinks worked out before the season starts. When healthy he will produce like a WR1 this yr. Carson Palmer loves to sling it deep (2nd highest ypa last yr to Aaron Rodgers) and he also loves Moore. With defenses unable to double him due to the attention McFadden will require in the box Moore may very well emerge as one of the leagues premier deep threats this season. 1000 yds and 7 TD's is easily attainable with upside for much more.
Kevin Smith is about the only bankable skill player in Detroit right now outside of Calvin. With Best headed towards the pup list and Leshoure battling his own issues and suspension Smith will open the season as the lead back in a high scoring offense. He will be an every wk RB2 in that role. He's as healthy as ever and ready to carry the load according to all reports. And if you remember back when he was first drafted Smith was thought to be their RB for years to come. He's always had the talent but has been held back by injuries which appear to be behind him.
Donald Brown is locked into the starting line up and the Colts offense should be rather conservative giving Brown ample touches. He's received nothing but bodes of confindence from coaches this offseason and has a nice preason debut. As thin as RB is landing a starter with 3 down potential in round 7 is a true gem.
Honorable mention: Robert Griffin III, Torrey Smith
Building your Benches Ceiling as High as Possible
You want to get the most out of your roster spots. You should always wish you had more roster space if your managing right because your bench should be filled with high upside players who have starting capabilities for fantasy purposes. Roster stashes of premium talent especially if you are drafting prior or early in preseason action. Elite "lottery ticket" RBs and by that I mean back up RBs who if became the starters would be every week fantasy plays and are in situations behind aging or brittle backs. You never want to waste a single roster spot meaning drafting two defenses or TEs is usually a waste and drafting numerous QBs or any WR who doesnt have WR2 upside meaningless. You want the most upside possible. There's no upside in players like Matt Schaub, Chris Cooley, Andy Dalton, Mike Tolbert, Owen Daniels, or even Santana Moss. Your Bench should have a combination of the Following:
David Wilson - Extreme upside here as he has a great blend of incredible explosiveness and great balance. He was drafted in the first round so he will get his fair share of chances and he's far too talented to keep off the field. He also plays behind one of the most injury prone runners in football. Wilson is an RB2 with upside if Bradshaw goes down.
Isaiah Pead - Drawn Comparisons to Chris Johnson, Lesean McCoy, Jamaal Charles and Darren Sproles by coaches and NFL films experts. He was selected as the future workhorse and may get a chance at that sooner rather than later behind the RB with the most active carries in the league.
Ryan Williams - Very talented runner with uncanny instincts and cutting ability. He's also behind the very brittle Beanie Wells leaving a good chance he gets a fair share of starts this yr and he has a 3 down skill set
Rashad Jennings - A 3 down back with a Career 5.2 ypc running as the starter due to the high mileage MJD holding out. This situation is ripe. Reach for Jennings in your drafts.
Kendall Hunter - Hunter is the most talented runner on a Run Heavy team despite the signing of Brandon Jacobs and drafting of LaMichael James. Gore can break down at any moment and in that even Hunter would get the lions share of the work.
Evan Royster - Royster is just a run of the mill back but is the apparent golden boy to shanahan at the moment and slotted as the starter in Washington. As long as that holds true he's worth drafting in the middle rounds.
Roy Helu - By far th most talented runner in Washington, but is in the dog house for some reason. Helu is an RB2 as a starter and holds rushing title potential if he were to be "the guy". He has too much talent in a very fluid situation not to roster stash.
Shane Vereen - Very under the radar but has 3 down potential in the NFL and excels in the passing game which is what the Pats will mostly be doing. He could easily lead this backfield in snaps which would give him flex value at the least.
LeGarrette Blount - There should be so much work to go around in Tampa that Blount shouldn't have a problem getting his early down chances along with goal line work. He has definite flex appeal on an offense that sets up to be as run heavy as any.
Mark Ingram - As the goal line guy on a high scoring team the TD potential will give him flex value and if Thomas were to go down he would become an RB2.
Jacquizz Rodgers - Has been called the "do it all man" by HC Mike Smith. With the team opening up the offense Rodgers should provide nice ppr value and flex in appeal in deeper leagues. He also is behind an aging a high mileage back himself
Bilal Powell - The Jets look to be very run heavy leaving work for their number 2 runner. That runner is Powell who will also be their 3rd down back. Greene isn't a talented enough back to rule out the possiblity of Powell emerging as the lead guy.
Mike Goodson - Darren McFadden back up must always be stashes and Goodson is a talented enough runner be a valuable fantasy asset.
Robert Turbin - Mr. Muscles is worth drafting as a handcuff for all Lynch owners who fear a suspension.
Jonathan Dwyer - Gaining steam by the day after a nice preseason outing and the pedestrian Isaac Redman set for an MRI.
Austin Collie - Should be on everyones radar with high end WR 3 upside as an outside WR and not just a slot man. Luck won't have any trouble finding the pristine route runner.
Malcom Floyd - Floyd has 900 yard potential with Vincent Jackson gone and Robert Meachem struggling.
Leonard Hankerson - A very talented WR with hands bigger than even Hakeem Nicks to snag passes with. Hankerson is more than worth a late round fliar as a starter with good ball skills and after the catch ability in a Shanahan offense run by RGIII
Donald Jones - Had a lot of deep league appeal before injuries killed his momentum. Jones is slotted as the number 2 WR for the Bills and could make some noise on the fantasy gridiron this yr.
Brian Quick - A very raw talented in a very good situation. Hard to gauge the fantasy value there but he should open the season as the teams number1 WR.
Sidney Rice - Always holds a lot of upside. QB play and injuries are what holds him back. With Matt Flynn set to run the show the QB play will be more than adaquete and he began practicing with the team again today so perhaps he's healthy. Either way he's worth a roster stash especially with TO to take away defensive attention.
Terrell Owens - Shouldn't have a problem locking down a starting role oppositte of Rice. When on the Field Owens always produces. He should be very fantasy relevant with Flynn under center as a possible 900 yard 7-8 td producer.
Kendall Wright - Wright could have one of the greatest rookie WR seasons in NFL history if things fall into place. He and Locker will make a dynamic young duo in the passing game and with all the uncertaintys around Kenny Britts knees and his likely multiple game suspension Wright should be a star right from the start. He will have every opportunity to put up big numbers with the offense turning to the Run in Shoot. He has tremendous after the catch abilty and is lethal as a deep threat. Wright is a true gem in the making.
Randall Cobb - Super talented WR behind dead weight on a high octane offense. Cobb will have his chance to shine this season. If he lands the WR3 job he will be a high upside flex play with his game breaking abilities.
Brandon LaFell - Yes another 3rd yr WR although this one is much more under the radar. LaFell is locked into the starting roll that produced 1180 yards last yr (divided amongst 2 guys) but thats more or less his ceiling for this season.
Vincent Brown - A favorite of Rivers with great ball skills and play making ability. Brown is currently behin the struggling Meachem but that shouldn't hinder his draft stock. Meachem and Floyd are always battling health issues, Brown has the best rapport with Rivers and had an excellent preason outing.
Jerome Simpson - Once he returns from suspension Simpson will make for a nice bye week plug in as the only WR other than Harvin for Ponder to throw to. Simpson is a nice deep threat and a very atheltic WR capable of making big plays after the catch.
Emmanuel Sanders - If for some reason Wallace doesn't sign Sanders will be set for a 1000 yard campaign at minimum in Todd Haleys offense. Even as their 3rd WR he will be flex worthy as an incredibly explosive WR in an offensive scheme that produced 3 1000 yard WRs just a few seasons ago.
Alshon Jeffery - A very big athletic target who should receive minimal defensive attention opposite of Brandon Marshall. The Bears are set to air it out more this season which should allow them to support 2 WRs for fantasy purposes. Jeffery could also emerge as their go to redzone option as Marshall has never been a big TD guy.
Robert Griffin III - He couldn't of landed in a better spot for early success. Shanahans offense and weapons are perfect for Griffins skill set. He has a great blend of reliable possesion receivers and explosive playmakers with Moss, Fred Davis, Leonard Hankerson and Pierre Garcon. Griffin should also find nice ground totals this season which should make him a very valuable Fantasy asset. He could step in and produce a 3500 yard 20 TD 15 int 500 rushing yards 5 TDs season with upside for further passing production which could vault him into the top 8 at the position.
Jake Locker - Has a cannon for an arm and elite athleticism for a QB. He has all the makings of a big time fantasy QB especially that he will now be running a pass heavy system. Once Britt is ready to go Locker will lead one of the most entertaining young teams with a complete arsenal of weapons at his disposal. Locker could be in the neighborhood of 4200 yards 22 TDs 18 INTs 350 rushing yards 2 TDs which would be top 12 numbers at the position.
Kyle Rudolph - The MVP of Vikings training camp will ge numorus opportunties to excell in the passing game this season especially as they ease AP back into things. Rudolph is a legitimate redzone weapon with a big fame good ball skills and great hands. If theres one TE to stash on your bench, it's Rudolph.
And thats the Blue Print for Fantasy success. I hope all who read this to its entirety take note and have themselves a great Fantasy Football season.
