Sunday, September 18, 2011

Week 2 Game by Game Breakdown


KC @ DET -8 

KC was embarrassed at home last week to the Bills. Detroit fairly easily beast a solid Bucs team on the road. Lets face facts the Chiefs overachieved last year. They had a soft schedule which Charlie Weis exploited not Todd Haley. Weis was a major reason for their offensive success. The loss of Eric Berry will only make them fall further down the NFL heirarchery. The Lions are a force. They can play with any team. Their D-line is dominate and Matt Stafford is quickly becoming one of the leagues best. Stafford will exploit Berry's absence to the fullest, picking apart the cheifs defense making numerous connections with his pass catchers down field. The Chiefs will have to impose a successfull run heavy approach early to stand a chance. They need to give Jamaal Charles the ball as much as he can handle to keep pace with Detroits scoring but we all know Todd Haley has other plans. He will feed McCluster the ball a near equal amount of times. Detroits line should dominate and leave Cassel with limited time to throw or get comfortable. Once the Lions have a big lead they will ice the game feeding Jahvid Best and Jerome Harrison who should provide some explosive runs. Perhaps the Lions call the dogs off a little early and impliment the prevent defense allowing the Chiefs time to make the game appear closer than it really was but either way the Lions will win by double digits. Lions 34 - 17

JAC @ NYJ -9.5

The Jets are coming off a rather fortunate win against the cowboys. Forced to abondon their roots of ground and pound to play catch up. That won't be the case this week. The Jets will be commited to establishing Shonn Greene and the running game early, taking the pressure off Mark Sanchez who will be allowed to drop back and make the occasional throw down field to Plaxico. Uncertainty still surrounds Holmes availabilty but it won't have too much effect on the game as the Jets should win with ease. The offense won't have to put up too many points as Luke McCown and the Jags aren't much of a threat to light up the score board. Especially when matched up against the NYJ defense. This game could quickly turn into a slaughter if the Jets get some big plays early on Special Teams or Defense which is possible. Jets Roll with or without Holmes 24-3

ARI @ WAS -3 1/2

Both teams coming off wins, Washingtons being the most impressive. They stiffled the Giant offense limiting them to just 14 points and Rex Grossman threw for over 300 yards while not turning the ball over. The Redskin defense will attack Kolb, leaving him unable to find rhythem. Kolb will lean on Fitzgerald heavily but looking his way often doesn't translate to production. If the skins grab an early lead forcing the Cardinals in catch up mode the washington defense will take full advantage of the added drop backs. The Cardinals will need a big game out of Beanie Wells to keep their shaky secondary off the field. Rex Grossman should still have all the time he needs to hook up with Santana Moss and Anthony Armstrong deep. He will have nice underneath options with fred davis and Jabar Gafney. Skins take it. 27 - 17

BAL @ TEN +6

The Titans should be up and ready for this rivalry game and the Ravens are coming off an emotional win which could spell an upset recipie. I'm going to ride with the more obvious. The Ravens are good on both sides of the ball. The Titans are mediocre on both side of the ball. Ray Rice should have another big day and Flacco will be able to hook up with Lee Evans and/or Ed Dickson for a big play or two. As long as the Ravens can contain Chris Johnson they should be able to cover here. Ravens 27 - 13

SEA @ PIT -14

The Steelers will be angry. They will be looking to make a home opener statement against the Seahawks. Very unfortunate for the Seahawks. Tavaris Jackson will be helpless as the Steeler Defense will wreak Havoc on him. Big Ben will light up the seattle secondary. Connecting with Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown for big plays. This game will be a an early blowout. Steelers 31 - 10

GB @ CAR +10

The Packers Offense looked pretty much unstoppable last week. Which is about right. Rodgers has endless weapons. Rodgers should connect with Jermichael Finley numerous times leading to a lot of hurt on the Panther Defense. They will score time after time. Dom Capers will have the Packer Defense throwing all kinds of different looks at Cam Newton. We will get to see what hes truely made of this week after a historic NFL debut. Whats my prediction on the game? Well to quote Clubber Lang from Rockie III "Pain". Thats my prediction. The Panthers might be able to hang tough for a while at home, but they wont be able to keep up with the scoring pace of the Packers. 38 - 20

DAL @ SF +3

I know this sounds like a joke, but I think Romo will be motivated this week. Yes. Romo... motivated. I think he may finally be ready to silence critics after yet another meltdown. He looks likley to be without Dez Bryant, but Romo will connect with his favorites (Austin and Witten) time and time again. Alex Smith is very erratic under pressure. Rob Ryan will have the Dallas D getting too him forcing multiple Turnovers. Their Defense just shutdown one of the best Running teams in the NFL so Gore won't carry them. San Francisco didnt do much on offense last week against a weak Seattle secondary (just 209 total yards and 1 TD). They won't do any better offensively this week. They won't get another 2 return TD's again. Dallas had 390 yards of offense last week agains the jets and looked very dominate before the closer minutes mishaps. They won't have the same collapse nor will it be that close. The niners are vulnerable through the air. Dallas wins by more than a FG. 27 - 17

HOU @ MIA +3

Houston was flat dominate last week on both sides of the ball. The Dolphins were exposed to say the least on defense. Houston will impliment a run heavy approach with last years NFL leading rusher back in the mix. The Texans should dominate the time of possesion, leaving their defense rested. They will wear down the Dolphin defense with their runs going for more yardage as the game goes on. Schuab will connect with Andre a fair share of times too but its Foster and Tate who will carry the offense. Texans win 24-17


SD @ NE -7

The Patriots defense gave up over 400 yards last week to Chad Henne. The Chargers held McNabb to 39 yards. The Chargers be able to contain the Patriot offense, at least at a pace the chargers will be able to keep up with Rivers will utilize his WRs size advatage over the NE corners. Hooking up with Vincent Jackson for big plays downfield. I like the Chargers chance at an upset, but given how dominate the Patriots looked last week I will still go with the Pats in the game. 34 - 31
CIN @ DEN -4

Denver really struggles stopping the run and running is what the Bengals will doing often. The Broncos will also be without Knowshon Moreno, Champ Bailey and Ty Warren in this game. This game looks to be brutal to watch. I shall make my pick anyways. Denver 20 - 17


PHI @ ATL +2.5

I will keep this one simple. Vick is not going to lose in his return to the Georgia Dome. He's too much of a competitor. He will be too motivated. Yes the Falcons will be riding Turner to keep Vick off the field, but once Vick does step onto the field he will waste no time making plays. As I predicted in an earlier column It's The Most Wonderful Time of the Year Eagles win 31 - 17

Saturday, September 17, 2011

Sit Start Week 2

Start



Rex Grossman - Grossman is coming off three 300 yard performances in his last 4 games dating back to last season. This week he draws the oh so vulnerable secondary of the Arizona Cardinals who were just lit up last week for 422 yards to Cam Newton and the Panthers. Grossman was very poised last week, making strong accurate throws and didn't register a turnover against the Giants defense. Grossman is primed for success against the Cardinals. week 2 projections: 24-31 315 yards 2 TD's 1 INT


James Starks - Starks lead the team in carries last week. Sure it was just a 12-9 advantage over Ryan Grant and 12 carries isn't exactly workhorse caliber, but he looked much more explosive than Grant. I look for him to get around the 15 touch mark against the soft Panther run D. Start as a nice RB 3 or Flex play
week 2 projections 15 carries 75 yards 2 catches 14 yards 1TD

Ben Tate - coming off a 24 carry 116 1TD performance, but Foster will be back this week and Tate draws the Dolphins this week, a solid run defense. So what makes Tate startable? Kubiak and the Texans are expected to go with a run heavy approach with Tate being heavily in the mix. The Texans running scheme is capable of productive rushing totals against any team. They will wear down the Dolphins defense eventually breaking off big runs. The Texans won't give Foster a full load leaving plenty of carries for Tate and they should be playing from ahead in the 4th, using Tate not Foster as the closer in this one. Tate is very capablee of producing RB2 totals on Sunday. week 2 projections: 16 carries 80 yards 1TD


Nate Burleson - If your not on his bandwagon yet theres still a small windown to jump aboard. He's one of Staffords favorite target especially in the redzone (lead the team in redzone targets last week). Up against the KC Cheifs Defense who gave up 40 points to the Bills last week the matchup is ripe. Stafford will pick the defense apart and Burleson will be one of the main beneficiaries. Look for WR 2 numbers this week. week 2 projections: 6 catches 84 yards 1 TD

Brandon Gibson - Lead the Rams receiving last week. Only a 50 yard total, nothing to get bullish over, but that was against the Eagles secondary. This week he draws the Giants who gave up over 300 yards to the skins last week. McDaniels will have a game plan in place to have the giant secondary exploited again. Look for Gibson to be the lead man once again and start to make a name for himself on MNF. week 2 projections:  5 catches 70 yards 1 TD

Lance Kendricks - A disapointment last week, but the Eagles are always good at limiting TE's. The Giants gave up over 100 yards to TE Fred Davis last week. Kendricks skill set is very similar and with Amendola out Bradford will need a security blanket. Kendricks won't have over a hundred yards like davis but will provide very useful totals for fantasy owners. week 2 projections: 5 catches 53 yards 1 TD

Washington Defense - Last season they were fantasy heaven to opposing players. Now they have become much more aggressive with 2 very good OLB's (Orakpo and Kerrigen) and appear to be a force. Last week they held the Giants to just 14 points, sacking manning 4 times and forcing a TO which they returned for a score. The Cardinals are weak in pass protection and likely to be pass heavy in this game as the Redskins will be putting up points. I look for the skins to apply pressure on Kolb, getting to him and forcing a couple turnovers. week 2 projections: 17 points allowed 3 sacks 2 Turnovers forced.

PPR Special

Cadillac Williams - Received 25 touches last week for 140 total yards(Catching 6 passes for 55 yards). He will draw the start this week for the injured Steven Jackson. The Giants are stout against the run but Williams should get enough carries to be productive. The loss of Amendola should only further his use in the passing game, making a repeat 5 catch game very likely. week 2 projections: 17 carries 62 yards 6 catches 50 yards



SIT

Matt Schuab - Yes the Dolphins just gave up over 500 yards through the air, but that was to brady and the Pats. Exploiting defenses is just what they do when Brady has time. The Dolphins secondary is actually a solid group. The Texans will also be going run heavy. Look for similar production to last weeks output.
 week 2 projections: 200 yards 1 TD

Maurice Jones-Drew - only managed 4 ypc against the Titans last week. This week he faces the Jets who just don't get run on. There won't be room to run for MJD this week and the Jags will be playing from behind. week 2 projections: 17 carries 54 yards 3 catches 10 yards 0TD's

Rashard Mendenhall - Seattle was 2nd in the league against the run last year being flat out dominate before suffering injuries to their DL. They are back and they are healthy. They limited frank Gore to just 59 yards on 22 carries. The Steelers will do their damage through the air this week. Likely building an insurmountable lead leaving the 4th Quarter carries to be handed to Isaac Redman. Maybe Mendenhal can sneak in for a score to save the fantasy day but if he doesn't those who start him will be losing hair on Sunday.
 week 2 projections: 18 carries  48 yards 0 TD

Dez Bryant - Still a mystery whether he will play or not. Even if he does I look for him to be limited. He's a beast without question but the possibility of him not playing and he not being 100% is enough to move him to the bench this week.

AJ Green - potential is here with WRs able to get behind Denver defenders but with Andy Dalton getting the start I don't like his chances. week 2 projections: 4 catches 47 yards



Bold Predictions

Greg Little - lead the Browns in snaps last week. He's by far their most talented weapon. He is going to break out at some point this season. My gut tells me he starts his reign of terror on NFL DB's in the RCA dome. 6 catches 90 yards 1 TD


Harry Douglas - The Falcons will be getting back to pounding the rock against the Eagles this week. Roddy White and Julio Jones will assume much of the defensive attention and draw the top Philly covermen. Douglas will do damage from the slot making plays over the middle and I look for him to come up big with an explosive play, taking advantage of a mismatch. 4 catches 80 yards 1 TD

Antonio Brown - Was targeted 11 times last week. Only hauled in 2 passes but that discrepency will not happen again. Of course neither will his high target total, but a matchup against the vulnerable Seahawks secondary who can be beaten deep and with the Steelers expected to go no huddle at times, the situation is one he can pounce on. 4 catches 74 yards 1 TD

Friday, September 16, 2011

The Return of the Lone Panther


It seems so long ago that Steve Smith, the greatest Panther of all time (not Chris Wienke contrary to popular belief) was competing weekly with Chad "Johnson" and Terrell Owens for best TD celebration (sample of the ole glory days) and was regarded as the best WR in the game. From 2003-2009 Smith posted an Impressive average of 1035 yards. Impressive considering he was always on run first offenses and that 1035 yard average includes the 2004 season which he totaled just 60 yards due to a season ending injury week 1. Throw out that lost season and his average rises to just under 1300 yards per season. Whenever he has had competent QB play Smith has ranked amongst the best WR's in the league in Fantasy and reality. Finishes of 1st, 3rd and 5th in fantasy scoring at the WR position. Steve Smith has never been considered a prototypical receiver, standing 5'9" 185 lbs, but Smith is a relentless competitor. Never taking a play off, playing with heart and a fiery passion for the game. Last year, Smith being his own worst critic, declared himself no longer a number one WR due to his lack of production. His lack of production was not due to his ability, but his team and QB situation. The Panthers ranked dead last in passing yards with just 143 ypg due to Jimmy Clausen's complete confusion at the QB position. He was lost and erratic the entire season. Smith still has elite ability as shown by his 178 yard 2 TD outburst last week (not including a 41 yarder called back). With a new QB and new Head Coach Smith's career is resurected. One might say he's baaaaaaaack. Offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski has stated "Steve Smith is the passing game's primary thought on every pass attempted by Cam Newton". With Smith's ability and Newton looking to him early and often, forcing it up to him and giving him every chance to make a play Smith holds monster upside for the remainder of the season. The Panthers offense will often implicate 2 TE sets (Jeremy Shockey and Greg Olsen) to help establish the run game and press the seams of the defense drawing attention from safetys. Newton has a very strong arm and due to their good run game, his threat as a runner and the skill set both their TE's hold Smith will find himself in more one on one opportunitys than any other eliter WR in the league. Play action deep to Smith will be a lethal play, producing big chunks of yards and quick scores. It's very possible Steve Smith ends the season as a top 10 or even 5 WR.





Thursday, September 15, 2011

Beating the Spread WK 2

CHI @ NO -6 ---- NO

KC @ DET -8  ----- DET

JAC @ NYJ -9.5 ---- NYJ
ARI @ WAS -4 ---- WAS

BAL @ TEN +6 ---- BAL

SEA @ PIT -14.5 ---- PIT

GB @ CAR +10 ---- CAR

DAL @ SF +3 ---- DAL

HOU @ MIA +3 ---- HOU

SD @ NE -7 ---- SD

CIN @ DEN -3.5 ---- CIN

PHI @ ATL +2.5 ---- PHI

STL @ NYG -6 ---- STL


week 1 recap: 6-4.