Beating the Spread Week 5

Season Recap: 29-20

KC +2.5 @ IND ---- IND

PHI -2.5 @ BUF ---- PHI

OAK +6 @ HOU ---- OAK

CIN +2.5 @ JAC ---- CIN

SEA +10 @ NYG ---- SEA

TB +3 @ SF ---- TB

NYJ +7.5 @ NE ---- NE

SD -3.5 @ DEN ---- SD

GB -6 @ ATL ---- GB

CHI +5.5 @ DET ---- DET

Sit Start Week 5

START

Josh Freeman - The Niners are 4th in the league against the run but 27th against the pass, thus the Bucs will lean heavily on Freeman. The opportunity for big plays will be their as the Niners have allowed 5 pass plays of at least 40 yards which puts them in a tie for second most given up. Projected stats: 26-36 for 294 yards 2 TDs 4 rushes for 21 yards

Isaac Redman - Redman is a tackle breaking machine and has been the most effective short yardage runner in the Steelers backfield over the last 2 seasons. Tennessee does rank 8th against the run, but with Redmans likely 20+ touch workload and his career 4.8 ypc he still holds enough upside to end the day with RB 2 totals. Projected stats: 21 carries 82 yards 3 catches 24 yards 1 TD

Mark Ingram - The Saints will look to the ground more than usual in this one with the Panthers giving up over 143 yards rushing per game and Brees failed to throw for 300 yards in either start against them last season. With high scoring offense of the Saints (32 ppg) and the generous Panther defense (25.5 ppg) Ingram has definite multi TD potential. Projected stats: 17 carries 84 yards 2 TDs

Sidney Rice - The Giants have given up 15 pass plays of at least 20 yards, something Rice specializes in (getting down field). Tavaris Jackson is coming off a 300 yard game and Rice has eclipsed double digit fantasy points in his two starts on the year. Seattle should also be playing from behind, increasing the pass attempts and leaving the possibility for nice garbage time production. Projected stats: 6 catches 102 yards 1 TD

Donald Jones - Lead the team in targets last week and is second behind Steve Johnson for the team lead on the year. Jones is a coaches favorite with a high snap total. Gailey has stated that Jones's role in the offense will continue to grow as the season goes on. This week they face the Eagles, a team in must win mode who will light up the score board against the very generous Bills defense (allowing over 400 yards of offense per game). Steve Johnson will draw Nnamdi Asomugha likely shutting him down forcing Fitzpatrick to look elsewhere. Jones should be where he looks the most, making Jones a nice play this week. Projected stats: 7 catches 90 yards 1 TD

Pierre Garcon - Curtis Painter may be a below average QB, but hes much more familiar with the Colts offense than Collins. Painter also has a strong enough arm to better utilize Garcon's skill set. They just missed hooking up for a TD against the Steelers but connected for 2 long scores against the Bucs. Garcon is the most explosive player on the colts roster and has a very beatable match up this week against KC who has surrendered the 5th most pass plays of 20 yards or more. Projected stats: 4 catches 70 yards 1 TD

Cincinnati Defense - The Bengals have the leagues top defense and a match up against the leagues 31st offense with a Rookie QB should have fantasy owners salivating. They held the high powered Bills to just 20 points and should have no problem holding the Jags offense to even less. Projected stats: 9 points allowed 3 sacks 2 Turnovers Forced.

Fliars/desperation plug ins:

Preston Parker/Arrelious Benn, Kendall Hunter, Stevan Ridley, Titus Young, Dane Sazenbacher, Jackie Battle, Victor Cruz, Mark Sanchez

SIT

Matt Schuab - The Texans were already in a run heavy mind set before the return of Foster and the injury to Andre Johnson. Now they will only run the ball even more especially in a match up against the leagues 29th run defense. Projected stats: 18-26 200 yards 1 TD

LeGarrette Blount - Will be facing the leagues 4th best run defense this week. A team that held Lesean McCoy to just 18 yards on the ground. Blount holds little upside in this gruesome match up. Projected stats: 17 carries 60 yards 0TDs.

Michael Turner -The Packers are likely to build a lead early in this game and they hold the leagues 2nd best run defense. Not the best of combinations for production. Tuner seems destined for a down game. Projected stats: 17 carries 68 yards 1 catch 8 yards.

Stevie Johnson - A match up against Nnamdi is a death sentence for fantasy production. Held Hakeem Nicks to just 25 yards and as good as Johnson is he isn't Nicks. Projected stats: 3 catches 36 yards

Wes Welker - The Jets held him under 60 yards in their playoff meeting in January and it has already been noted that Revis will match up against him often. Welker is virtually impossible to bench, but if your in a league with 10 men or less and have good WR depth the opportunity for crafty managing is here. Projected stats: 7 catches for 68 yards

Marques Colston - Colston is still coming back from injury and had just 9 catches for a total of 149 yards in his last 4 games against the Panthers (just a 37.25 ypg average). The Panthers are 31st against the run and Brees is always a spread the wealth QB with Jimmy Graham and Lance Moore as his guys in crucial situations. Unless he can find the endzone Colston will produce little for fantasy owners. Projected Stats: 4 catches for 41 yards

Others who could disappoint

Cedric Benson, Drew Brees, Beanie Wells, Steve Smith

Pick Ups of the Week. (bye week edition)

Must Adds in all Leagues

Stevan Ridley - After his 97 yard outburst on Sunday his ypc average is now 7.9. His the best RB in New England and his role is only growing. His schedule is tough over the next few weeks, but over the stretch run of Fantasy he has games against KC, PHI, IND, WAS, DEN, MIA, BUF weeks 11-17. Ridley has late season Gem written all over him. Stash him away now and reap the benefits later.

Ryan Torrain - Reports late last week were that Shanahan was close to benching Hightower in favor of Torrain during the game against the Cowboys. This week he pulled the trigger. The Redskins RB situation will continue to be hazy throughout the season but whoever starts is an RB2. Right now it appears The Torrain Train is a full go.

Isaac Redman - Early reports are Mendenhall and Moore will miss this weeks game against the Titans giving  Redman a full workload. He has been the most effective back for the Steelers on the season particularly in short yardage situations. He's a great bye week plug in.

Bernard Scott - Cedric Benson will be suspended at some point, missing multiple games. Scott would become a 3 down RB giving him plenty of Fantasy upside

Michael Crabtree - He's back the Niners offense is showing signs of life. Crabtree received 9 targets last week. He's a mid level WR3 as it stands now, but with further improvements to their offense Crabtree could become a WR2 by years end.

Victor Cruz - He's become much more than a Preseason sensation. Last week the Giants benched Mario Manningham in favor of Cruz. Cruz again produced. He's averaged 104 yards in his last 2 games. Even with Manningham in the mix the Giants can support 3 WR's and Cruz will still hold WR3 value especially with the bye weeks rolling in.

Bye Week Fliars

Pierre Garcon - Curtis Painter may be a below average QB, but hes much more familiar with the Colts offense than Collins. Painter also has a strong enough arm to better utilize Garcon's skill set. They just missed hooking up for a TD against the Steelers but connected for 2 long scores against the Bucs. Garcon is the most explosive player on the colts roster and has a very beatable match up this week against KC

Arrelious Benn - Benn Flashed his skill set on a 62 yard catch last night, breaking numerous tackles and exploding down field for a score which was negated. His targets are still scarce but his talent is undeniable. This week and weeks that follow the Bucs face teams stout against the run but suceptible to plays downfield. Leaving the potential for Benn to have productive games as the teams lone deep threat.

Kevin Walter/ Jacoby Jones - With Andre Johnson set to miss "some time" the Texans will have to look elsewhere for downfield option. Owen Daniels is likely to be the main beneficiary and their Run Heavy approach is make it tough to consistently support even one wide out. One of them should emerge as a good plug in play while Andre is sidelined. Walter being the safer option with Jones holding much more upside.

Donald Jones - Lead the team in targets this week and has a growing role in one of the most explosive offenses. He's a team favorite and HC Chan Gailey has already said he wants to get Jones the ball more. This week he faces the Eagles who are likely to shutdown Stevie Johnson leavin Fitzpatrick to look elsewhere and the Eagle have given up production to number 2 WRs thus far.

Beating the Spread Week 4

MIN -2 @ KC ---- MIN

NO -7 @ JAC ---- NO

BUF -3 @ CIN ---- BUF

DET +1.5 @ DAL ---- DET

SF -8.5 @ PHI ---- PHI

WAS -2 @ STL ---- WAS

TEN -1 @ CLE ---- TEN

ATL -5 @ SEA ---- ATL

NYG -2 @ ARI ---- NYG

MIA +6.5 @ SD ---- SD

DEN +12 @ GB ---- GB

NE -6 @ OAK ---- NE

NYJ +4.5 @ BAL ---- NYJ

IND +10 @ TB ---- IND