Tuesday, April 29, 2014

NFL DRAFT 2014: Round 1 Mock

1. HOUSTON TEXANS




JADAVEON CLOWNEY
DE South Carolina

The 6'6 270 pound South Carolina product boasts absolutely freakish upside, making him the most talented defensive line prospect since Julius Peppers. His speed (4.57 40 yd), quick feet, ridiculous length used to disrupt throwing lanes (83' wingspan), and athletic ability project very well to the next level as an elite level edge rusher. Some question his overall work ethic and football character, but similar whispers surrounded the aforementioned Peppers during the scouting process. In 2002, the Houston Texans selected David Carr with the first overall pick prior to their inaugural season. Who went #2 overall in the 2002 draft you ask? The Carolina Panthers drafted a lazy defensive lineman who "takes plays off" named Julius Peppers. How did that one work out?  

The Texans are best served building a dominant front line considering they play football in the same division as the future of the quarterback position in Andrew Luck. The thought of pairing Clowney and J.J. Watt on the same defensive line should prove too tempting for Rick Smith and new defensive coordinator Romeo Crenell. Welcome to every offensive lineman's own personal fear factor every Sunday. The NFL doesn't give many teams second chance to right past mistakes. With no quarterback in the 2014 class worthy of the number one draft pick, it's time to repent from 2002.

The following exchange took place on ESPN's "Sports Center" (Sometime in early March):

Teddy Bruschi: "Let's say the Texans draft you with the number one pick and put your locker next to J.J. Watt's. What are you gonna do then?"

Clowney: "I'm gonna take some notes."

Sharpen your #2 pencil, rookie.





Don't be Surprised if: 
Houston trades the pick for a pot of gold and a multitude of draft picks. GM Rick Smith and the rest of the Texans front office remain out of love with any of the top prospects. On March 28th, Dan Pompei wrote the Texans are "trying hard to trade the first pick." Adam Schefter and others reported  (4/21) Texans Smith prefers Buffalo's Khalil Mack over Clowney. The team's owner Bob McNair raved about Clowney in January. Bill O'Brien loves Johnny Manziel's competitiveness and Blake Bortles' poise in big games. TRANSLATION: They don't love any of these guys at the number one spot, and they hope someone else does. 

2. ST. LOUIS RAMS


JAKE MATTHEWS
LT Texas A&M
jakematthews


Jeff Fisher coached Bruce Matthews, Jake's Hall of Fame father, and said the former A&M offensive lineman "possesses similar traits." The Rams desperately need to fill guard and center holes on the offensive line and scouts believe Matthews could be an All-Pro at either position. Tremendous in pass protection, Matthews is the most versatile and technically sound offensive lineman in this draft. Greg Robinson has more more raw upside at the next level and is the number one overall offensive lineman on almost every scout's big board. I love the powerful run blocker as much as anyone, but St. Louis may value Matthews more. Jim Thomas of the St. Louis dispatched reported earlier this month he believes the Rams will draft Jake Matthews with the 2nd overall pick. I agree.

Don't Be Surprised If: The Rams can't pass on Sammy Watkins. He's the most NFL ready player in this draft and will instantly bolster any team's aerial attack. Sam Bradford's days as a Ram may be numbered but an investment in Watkins would make any quarterback break out into this little number. The team selected two receivers in each of the last three drafts and one in the 1st round last year(Tavon Austin), and I don't see the Rams front office expending any more picks on the position. But Les Snead could very well channel his inner Matt Millen and pull the trigger on the speedster from Clemson.

3. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

JOHNNY MANZIEL
QB, Texas A&M

Remember when the Texans passed on a beloved Houston legend named Vince Young, only to watch Bud Adams' franchise select him with the 2nd overall pick? UT fans in Houston fans jumped on the Titans bandwagon faster than you can say Hook Em.  Expect similar results when the Jaguars draft Johnny Manziel from the massive amounts of A&M fans living in Houston. Here are Manziel's thoughts regarding the Texans passing on him:

"It would be the worst decision they've ever made," he said. "I'd be in the same division playing against them twice a year. Sorry, but you just turned that chip on my shoulder from a Frito into a Dorito." 

I hope Johnny loves Cool Ranch. But I see him as more of a Nacho Cheese guy for some reason. History has a habit of repeating itself.

Don't Be Surprised If: 
Sammy Watkins goes at this pick to Jacksonville or through a trade to Detroit or San Francisco.

4. CLEVELAND BROWNS

SAMMY WATKINS
WR Clemson


Cleveland has busted on almost every first round pick since 1999. 
I'm not even mad, that's amazing. BUST LIST  However with a new competent and hungry GM in Ray Farmer, everything's about to change. The Browns are desperate for a long term solution at QB, but Watkins is far and away the best available talent left on the board. Josh Gordon emerged as one of the best wideouts in the league last season and drafting Watkins only makes its more difficult for opposing secondaries. The Browns are rolling deep in draft picks and own the luxury of being able to take a quarterback with their second pick in the first round or early 2nd. 


Don't Be Surprised If:

Kevin Costner steals the show. I MEAN DID YOU GUYS SEE DRAFT DAY!!? Real Oscar stuff (I really hope we get a sequel directed by Michael Bay starring Nick Cage). If Jacksonville passes on Manziel, anticipate the Heisman winner to bring Drake and the rest of the Young Money fam along with him to Ohio. And then it's really fun times in Cleveland.


5. OAKLAND RAIDERS


MIKE EVANS
WR Texas A&M


Full disclosure: Mike Evans is my favorite player in this year's draft based on perceived value and projected draft spot. On tape he jumps out as a hybrid of Jimmy Graham and Vincent Jackson. At 6'5 225, Evans stretches the field with exceptional speed for his size(4.57 40 yd). The A&M standout runs the go route like Jackson and is also unafraid to run across the middle, elevate above defensive backs, and create yards after contact in similar fashion to Graham. The combine only furthered demonstrated Evan's monster upside to the world. Don't look now, but Oakland's offense may actually be formidable in 2014. Both Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Schaub are past their primes but very well could have one last ride in them. Add Evans to the mix and the Raiders may become nationally relevant and fly onto your fantasy football radar. And for you annoying Aggies at home keeping score, that's three of your boys in the top 5 of the 2014 NFL draft. Congrats and Gig em.


Don't Be Surprised If: 
Blake Bortles comes off the board here. Matt Schaub is not a long term option at quarterback, and Oakland is surely looking for a future gunslinger in this draft. Bortles raw ability and need for polishing makes Oakland's situation ideal. 

6. ATLANTA FALCONS



KHALIL MACK
DE Buffalo


RUN, don't walk to the podium. Khalil Mack remains on this draft's best prospects and directly fills a need at pass rusher for the falcons' defense.

Don't be surprised if: The Falcons trade up for either Mack or Clowney. Their biggest team need is pass rusher, which is this class' greatest strength. Born and raised in the ATL, Clowney told the media he hopes his childhood team trades up and grabs him before it's too late.


7. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

GREG ROBINSON
OT Auburn


Scouts salivated over the size and athletic ability of Greg Robinson during April's NFL Combine. I'm talking jaws wide open and some seriously uncomfortable lingering. The Auburn offensive tackle instantly went from a relatively unknown offensive lineman in the mainstream media to folk legend in one day. Dominant as a run blocker, Robinson plowed over defensive lineman and linebackers and created huge running lanes for Heisman candidate Tre Mason last season. Lance Zierlein, a Houston Sports personality and son of former NFL Offensive line coach Larry Zierlein, covers the position extensively and believes Robinson is one of the best talents he's ever evaluated. Tampa Bay needs help in a lot of spots and Robinson instantly improves their run game. If he develops as a pass protector, he could very well develop into All Pro on Sundays.

Don't be surprised if:

Robinson is selected way before the seventh overall selection. Most scouts believe Robinson comes off the board in the top 5 and his talent more than justifies that belief. St. Louis, Jacksonville, and Houston (trading back into the draft) all very likely candidates.


8. MINNESOTA VIKINGS



BLAKE BORTLES
QB Central Florida



No team desperately needs a signal caller more than Minnesota. The Vikings offense regularly sees 8-9-sometimes even 10 man defensive fronts to counter Adrian Peterson and simply put they cannot put the ball in the air successfully. Last season their passing attack was ATROCIOUS. I mean my goodness, even Josh Freeman got a start under center last season. Peterson rushed for over 2000 yards in 2012 but last year his output fell by almost 800 yards largely in part due to defensive coordinators stacking the box. Bortles displays many traits scouts look for but is still raw and needs 1-2 years to sit on the sidelines and learn. Matt Cassell played decently last season and should provide a nice stop gap for the team. Get AP a quarterback and some hope for the future. He deserves it.

Don't be surprised if:

Houston trades down to Atlanta's selection and drafts the Bortles at #6. I covered extensively why I believe Houston may love the QB here. If I'm forced to bet on any of this year's crop of quarterbacks having long term sustainable success at the next level, my money is on Blake.


This entire video displays Bortles tremendous cerebral capabilities, but just do yourselves a favor and skip to 3:32. 

Swag ain't cheap. 

9. BUFFALO BILLS


TYLER LEWAN
OT Michigan



Tyler Lewan is a bad, bad man. Some would even say NASTY.  He grabs face masks like they're going out of style. 

(3/26/14) Michigan's Taylor Lewan to be charged with three misdemeanors...Michigan senior OT Taylor Lewan will be charged with three misdemeanors following an altercation last December in Ann Arbor, according to court records (first reported by The Ann Arbor News). He is scheduled to be arraigned on April 8 on one count of aggravated assault and two counts of assault or assault and battery. The incident occurred outside an Ann Arbor bar at 12:30 a.m. on Dec. 1 when two Ohio State fans claimed an unprovoked Lewan punched and attacked them only hours after Ohio State defeated Michigan. Bucknuts, an Ohio State insider website, first reported the story on Dec. 23. When asked about the altercation at the NFL Combine, Lewan downplayed the events. "I wasn't in any fight," Lewan said. "I was actually breaking something up. Some guy said I slugged him." Detective Lt. Robert Pfannes confirmed that Lewan was the only person facing charges from that specific incident.

 - Dane Brugler, NFLDraftScout.com

You be the judge, but this guy's character is questionable from an outsider's perspective. NFL executives reportedly dismissed the charges as a "non issue", but I'm more skeptical. Either way he's a very talented left tackle that should be able to start from day 1. So talented that Buffalo grabs him here and gives even more help to CJ Spiller, Fred Jackson, and an already potent rushing attack.


10. DETROIT LIONS


ANTHONY BARR
OLB UCLA


The Lions need an OLB. Barr is the best player available. You do the math.

Don't be surprised if:
Detroit grabs Eric Ebron or Odell Beckham Jr. Even though the Lions inked Golden Tate in the offseason, they are still in the market to add offensive weapons to take attention away from Calvin Johnson.

11. TENNESSEE TITANS


JUSTIN GILBERT
DB Oklahoma State University




Alterraun Verner left Tennessee during the free agency period, leaving a huge hole in the team's secondary. Lucky for Tennessee, the 2014 class' strongest position outside of wider receiver I believe is defensive back. Some guys are fast, but Gilbert can flat out fly. Not only is JG exceptional in coverage but also will add an extra dimension on special teams for the Titans as a punt/kick returner. The Titans struggled in the third phase of the game last season and head coach Mike Munchak fired special teams coach Alan Lowry in January. Time to put a band aid on the defense and the return game.

Don't be surprised if: 

The Titans draft a defensive back not named Gilbert. This draft boasts a lot of talented dude and the overall separation between Dennard, Roby, and Gilbert is minimal, if at all.

12. NEW YORK GIANTS



AARON DONALD
DT Pittsburgh 



A true force in the middle, Donald dominates the line of scrimmage and makes the backfield his place of residence. Quarterbacks are his front porch(where he sits), and running backs are his bed (where he lies). He quietly led the NCAA in sacks (1.6) and tackles for loss (2.4) per game at Pitt. Donald above all of his defensive line counterparts produced at an elite level on Saturdays and I believe could very well be a productive player on Sundays. Despite concerns of short stature(6' feet tall), Donald quieted many skeptics and tested extremely well at the combine showing surprising speed (4.68 40 yd) to go along with his power and explosiveness. I love guys who just play football the way it's meant to be played. Donald leaves it all on the field and consider me in his corner. And the New York Giants as well.

Don't be surprised if:

The G-Men consider Beckham Jr. They could use a wideout to replace Hakeem Nicks who signed with the Colts in the offseason, and the former LSU tiger is a tempting option.

13. ST LOUIS RAMS


CALVIN PRYOR
S Louisville



Here's where I get bold. Pryor seems to be in every scout's top 20, but most don't believe he'll go this early. A short compact safety in the physical mold of Bob Sanders, Pryor lights up opposing receivers and lowers the boom across the middle. St. Louis will be looking to improve their secondary with their second pick of the 1st, and Pryor may be their man.





Don't be surprised if: Clinton Dix goes here. Both are the 1 and 2 safeties of this draft. It just depends which guy is higher on their big board.


14. CHICAGO BEARS 





HA HA CLINTON DIX
S Alabama













HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH. That was me laughing at this guy's first name. But wide receivers aren't laughing at him. And neither are the Bears. 

Don't be surprised if: 

The Bears look at Timmy Jernigan or Aaron Donald (if available). After losing Henry Melton to FA, the team will address defensive line depth in either the first round or days 2 and 3.


15. PITTSBURGH STEELERS 




DARQUEZE DENNARD
CB Michigan State


Mel aka "DA HAIR" aka "DA HYPERBOLE" aka "I've never used an ATM" Kiper believes Dennard plays like a "Steeler". I'm not sure what that exactly means, but the kid can straight BALL. Darqueze (which is coincidentally what I want to name my son now) demonstrates outstanding ball skills in coverage but also comes up to the line of scrimmage and stick receivers. Physical, fast, and an outstanding play maker, Dennard is my favorite DB from the 2014 class. Don't believe me, just roll the tape.




Don't be surprised if:


The Steelers select Odell Beckham Jr. Pittsburgh has stated they need a wide receiver and there is growing speculation that Beckham Jr. is rising up many teams' draft boards. Darqueze is too talented to pass up in my opinion, but I would not be shocked to see a WR drafted at 15.

16. DALLAS COWBOYS


TIMMY JERNINGAN
DT Florida State




I readily admit anything any projection I make regarding this pick is more than likely useless. Jerry Jones is less predictable than Miley Cyrus' weekly behavior. The Cowboys ran through defensive lineman last year as a result of injuries and slightly addressed the issue by signing Henry Melton in the off season. However, Melton is coming off an ACL injury so the team may look to add further depth. They might draft Jernigan in this spot, who is the best available defensive lineman and a guy I really like. He only started one full season at FSU but plays like a man possessed and helped lead the Seminoles defense to a National Championship. But then again, they probably won't. Who knows. It's the Dallas Cowboys.



Don't be surprised if:

Jerry Jones behaves like Jerry Jones. And does something that makes all of America shake their heads.

17. BALTIMORE RAVENS


ODELL BECKHAM JR. 
WR LSU



Baltimore never truly replaced Anquan Boldin after their miraculous run where the won the Super Bowl in 2012. The big bodied receiver came up with big catch after big catch in seemingly every crucial moment and was a powerful leadership presence on and off the field for the franchise. Talk about big shoes to fill, but Beckham Jr. has the ability. Although he's only 5 11' he plays so much bigger with raw physicality. Using his tremendous hands and a crazy vertical that allows him to snag on defensive backs, Jr. provides any team with a punt return and wide receiver threat. He's a game breaker.

Don't be surprised if:

Beckham Jr. doesn't last this far. On the basis of talent and upside, he shouldn't.


18. NEW YORK JETS




ERIC EBRON

TE North Carolina




19. MIAMI DOLPHINS



ZACH MARTIN














Zach Martin could be the most underrated offensive line prospect in this year's class. He played OT masterfully at Notre Dame, shined at the Senior Bowl, performed well at the combine. Yet the majority of media attention falls squarely squarely on Matthews and Robinson. The Dolphins suffered one of the worst media fall outs in NFL history last season after the Johnathan Martin-Richie Ignito scandal. Martin played the role of captain at Notre Dame is considered a high character prospect. Seems like an appropriate change for a group of guys who used to hold their meetings at strip clubs. Extremely versatile, Martin can play  left and right tackle as well as both guard positions.



Martin's tape against Stanford last season. Only missed maybe one-two protections and completely shut down Trent Murphy, second round projected talent and a very good football player. Maintained his run blocks and successfully got on LBs in the second level almost every run play. Impressive stuff.


20. ARIZONA CARDINALS




DEREK CARR
QB Fresno State



At age 34, Carson Palmer isn't getting any younger. Bruce Arians is looking for a young, big armed quarterback to run his vertical down-field passing attack. No one boasts a stronger arm in this year's quarterback class than Derek Carr. Scouts are slowly falling in the love with the brother of David Carr, the former first overall pick of the Houston Texans. Peter King reported the Cardinals are "sweet" on Derek Carr and McCarron. If they want to grab Carr, they better do it here or he'll more than likely miss their opportunity as he's projected to go early or middle of round 2 to either Houston, Cleveland, Oakland, or other potential suitors.

Don't be surprised if: 

The Cardinals pass on a quarterback in the 1st and wait for McCarron in the 2nd-3rd.

21. GREEN BAY PACKERS

.
CJ MOSLEY
ILB Alabama



Talk about a discount. Hip and knee injuries are causing a once projected top 10 pick in CJ Mosley to be available in the latter half of the 1st. Whether are not the concern are valid depends entirely upon the competency of each team's medical staff. Mosley played with passion and determination in Birmingham, winning the hearts of Crimson Tide nation. Mosley's great at covering wide receivers across the middle of the field in pass coverage and this should suit him well in today's modern NFL. More and more ILBs are called to play zone coverage to counter slot receivers in the spread attack and fortunately CJ excels there. Sometimes great football players wrongly fall in the draft and land in your lap. The Packers could use defensive help and some depth at the linebacker position. Mosley is a value play for Green Bay at 21.

Don't be surprised if: 

Green Bay grabs OLB Ryan Shazier if Mosley doesn't fall to 21.


22. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES












  • BRANDIN COOKS
    • WR Oregon State


I hate gushing over players. Who am I kidding, I love it. And maybe more than any other player in this year's draft, Brandin Cooks looks the part of a play maker. Put him in Chip Kelly's wide open, up tempo spread offense and watch out for some yards after the catch. Cooks ran a 4.33 40 yd (not slow) and may actually be faster in game situations with the lights on and pads strapped. Great at catching in space and in crowds, Cooks does not shy away from contact despite his minute frame. He's good at getting to the corner, returning kicks and punts, and running reverses to keep defenses honest. More play makers in today's modern NFL are small in stature but large in ability (Welker, Austin Woodhead, Sproles). Cooks fits a similar bill as as slot receiver.  From a fantasy perspective, Cooks should be a guy with the right situation you may be able to take a flyer on in the later rounds. If Cooks does land in Philadelphia, don't expect them to miss Desean Jackson very much next season.



Don't be surprised if: 

The Eagles address the wide receiver position differently. Marquise Lee is bigger and arguably a better NFL prospect. Chip Kelly could want more of a possession receiver on the outside for Foles. But I doubt it. They need speed to stretch the field.


23. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS




MARQUISE LEE
WR USC




I'm rooting for Marquise Lee. Raised by a deaf father and growing up in the projects of Baldwin Village near USC's campus, Lee narrowly escaped the horrors of gang and drug violence. His story, like many professional athletes, is one of narrow escape and a triumph of the human spirit. For more READ HERE Malcom Gladwell's book David and Goliath tells readers how many prominent figures in society rose to greatness not only because of their skills but due to adversity that required the individuals to rise up and overcome their deficiencies. Once a top 5 projected pick, injuries and a less than stellar 2013 season caused Lee to fall down many team's big boards. That's just more adversity to fuel the fire. Expect big things from Lee on Sundays.

24. CINCINNATI BENGALS




RYAN SHAZIER
LB Ohio State




25. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS



BRADLEY ROBY
CB OSU




26. CLEVELAND BROWNS 



TEDDY BRIDGEWATER
QB Louisville




No one disappointed scouts more this off season than Teddy Bridgewater. He looked terrible at his own pro day(How does that even happen?) and did not further his own cause at the combine. If you put any stock into Gruden's QB camp(If you do, you might want to ponder your life choices.) he was very impressive regarding his offensive IQ and understanding of pro style schemes. He needs work on his accuracy and body but he's worth a pick here for the QB starving Browns.


27. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS




KONY EALY
DE Missouri




28. CAROLINA PANTHERS



ALLEN ROBINSON
WR Penn State




Robinson remains the best WR available and CAR has to be looking to provide more outside weapons for Cam Newton. Dude has no one to throw to right now. Extremely strong off the line of scrimmage and an exceptional route runner, Robinson's game is NFL ready.

29. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 



RASHEDE HAGEMAN
DT Minnesota




30. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 





  • JORDAN MATTHEWS
    • WR Vanderbilt


Same situation as Carolina, except not quite as dire. WR needed. Matthews best available talent left.


Don't be surprised if:

The 49ers are reportedly looking to make a "big move" in the 2014 NFL draft according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen. I could easily see them trading into the top 10 to select either Mike Evans or Odell Beckham Jr, two higher quality WR prospects. Don't leave your television sets because San Fran is surely going to make Thursday night very entertaining

31. DENVER BRONCOS



JASON VERRETT
CB TCU
Anyone who watched Denver last season will tell you the 2013 team didn't have a lot of weaknesses. Peyton Manning led perhaps the greatest offense of all time and achieved the greatest statistical output for a quarterback in NFL history. A receiving core comprised of Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, and Wes Welker along with the emergence of former basketball player Julius Thomas at TE made the Bronco aerial attack virtually unstoppable. Despite the offensive fortitude, Denver time and time again let teams hang out due to poor play in the secondary.The Broncos are going for a title NOW as they signed Aquib Talib, Emmanuel Sanders, and Demarcus Ware to fill holes on offense and defense. Verrett provides a shot of youth to a defense that started Champ Bailey (35 years old) last season. With Talib and Verrett in the back end of the defense, it's going to be extremely difficult for opponents to keep up on the scoreboard in 2014.


32. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS




KELVIN BENJAMIN
WR Florida State



Remember that really tall receiver with dreads that Jameis Winston always threw to all of last season?
BREAKING: The Seahawks LIKE drafting players with dreads. And guys that are really, freakishly athletic. Benjamin lacks speed and acceleration compared to his counterparts in the 1st round, but more than makes up for it with all world size (6'6) and leaping ability (33 inch vert) and a wingspan the same as Jadaveon Clowney's (83 inches). Some scouts see Benjamin moving to TE and making an even bigger impact at the next level. Regardless, Pete Carroll and the rest of the Seahawks staff will do a stand up job as usual of drafting talent and molding their selected player into their system. Benjamin provides an instant red zone threat for the Hawks and more receiver depth to counter the loss of Golden Tate. The rich get richer.


Friday, April 18, 2014

NFL Pre-Draft Thoughts: April 18th

Supply and Demand

How Wide Receiver Became the NFL's Most Employable Position



The Effects of Regulation

Enron. Tyco International. WorldCom. 

Three of the worst corporate frauds in history occurred within an 18 month span, sending the financial markets into a death spiral. The general public lost any faith remaining in Wall Street and white collar society. Reckless decisions and almighty avarice destroyed investor portfolios and wiped out employee pension plans. Penniless in the streets we cry.

Greedy, ruthless bastards.


In response President George W. Bush signed into law The Sarbanes Oxley Act on June 30th, 2002. "SOX" required executive management to bear responsibility for all information presented on company financial statements. Despite accounting's dominant role in the fraudulent activity, legislation dramatically raised the global need for accountants in a sick twist of irony. The SEC and Public Company Accounting Oversight Board raised overall audit requirements. The sun rose and firms couldn't hire enough bean counters. Accountants suddenly became the pretty girl everyone wanted to ask to prom, even though most of them were too nerdy to attend their own.

Speaking of nerds, one particularly handsome man strikes a cord in the hearts of NFL fans everywhere. Some remember him from his legendary battles with a meat head named Sean Salisbury(I mean his last name was a friggin STEAK) Others refer to him as "The Professor." I personally like to think of him as a prophet.



"The league's enforcement of illegal contact will have a huge impact this season. More teams will have the ability to passfor 4,500 yards. Games will be higher scoring."

-John Clayton 2004

The NFL saw a 6% increase year over year in total passing yards for 2004. And that was just the tip of the iceberg.

*QBs (position players omitted)

llegal Contact Rule Enforced in 2004

"Defenseless Receiver" rule enacted during 2011

  • Total passing yards increased by nearly 20% over the 10 year period.
  • TPY increased every year except for 2005 & 2007.
  • Before 2004, only Dan Marino accumulated a 5,000 yard passing season. (1984)
  • Since 2004, NFL QBs have thrown for 5,000 yards 7 times.
    • Brees(08',11',12',13'), Manning(13'), Brady(11'), Stafford(12')


Brain damage, like corporate fraud, is not for the faint of heart. Big wigs across NFL front offices feared the financial reaper heading for their pocket books and renowned reputations. Surely they heard the horror stories. Whispers of Super Bowl Shuffle winning quarterback Jim McMahon suffering from early stages of onset dementia and struggling to find his keys in the morning. Numerous former players taking their own lives due to the darkness of depression. Rumors began to swirl about when the league actually knew about the negative effects of concussions and why they chose to do sit and do nothing. It was time to act and act in a big way. And so began the most aggressive 10 years of regulation in NFL history.

2004's enforcement of illegal contact prohibited a defensive back from grabbing, touching, or physically berating a receiver farther than 5 yards off the line of scrimmage. Rule 12 Section 1 in the NFL's Code of Conduct fully describes the nature of "illegal contact", but the regulation actually first appeared in 1978. The lack of enforcement allowed Ronnie Lott and other hall of fame defensive backs to crush receivers up and down the field before the ball was in the air. After five yards, receivers can now run free leading to more offense and in theory less chance for player injury. It was a win-win in the eyes of every quarterback, wide receiver, and offensive coordinator.

More points, more yards, more fun for everybody right?

The "Defenseless Receiver"


September 1st, 2006.

Exit Paul Tagliabue. Enter Roger Goodell. 


In his own words, Roger Goodell likes "protecting the shield". For Goodell, protecting the NFL is about fostering the league's integrity, maintaining its tremendous domestic brand, and stretching the game into un-chartered global waters.  In the face of an 18,000 player lawsuit and intense media scrutiny, Goodell demonstrated his passion for the game's integrity. So much so that he decided to instill further regulation.

Definition of a Defenseless Player (December 27, 2011)

It is a foul if a player initiates unnecessary contact against a player who is in a defenseless posture
(2) A receiver attempting to catch a pass; or who has completed a catch and has not had time to protect himself or has not clearly become a runner. If the receiver/runner is capable of avoiding or warding off the impending contact of an opponent, he is no longer a defenseless player;

Rules are often controversial in nature, but rarely are they so subjective. If you ask 10 former players to define a "defenseless posture", I'm betting you will hear 10 diverse responses. Referees began whistling defenseless receiver calls during the 2011 season. From 2010 to 2011, the NFL experienced another significant increase of 3.56% total passing yards YOY. It may be hard to define causation, but there is certainly correlation. Safeties and corners are now less willing to hit receivers high leading to some gruesome lower body injuries.

Make no mistake, I am huge proponent of player safety. To Goodell's credit, the NFL experienced a 13% decrease in concussions this season.  I certainly don't want to see my childhood heroes go the tragic way of Junior Seau. Here's to hoping for another concussion decrease in 2014.

Now Hiring


This year's wide receiver class is the deepest and most talented group in recent memory. Sammy Watkins is a home run and a can't miss prospect.  Mike Evans displays shades of a smaller, faster version of Jimmy Graham every time he touches the football. Marquise Lee and Brandin Cooks are burners that will take the top off of secondaries at the next level. Odell Beckham Jr. is an explosive and powerful talent considering his stature. And those are just a few of the marquee names. ESPN's Mel Kiper projects there could be as many as 8 wideouts selects in the first round of this year's draft.

But even if these guys sucked, it wouldn't matter. Scouts and GMs would still salivate at their "potential." Why? Because someone has to catch passes from quarterbacks who now throw the ball 50 times a game. Someone has to rack up yards and touchdowns so freely given, and so freely taken. Talk about a market need.


Wide Receivers in the modern era are like accountants. Ever so employable.


Tuesday, February 11, 2014

Pre-Combine Thoughts

The #1 Pick

 
 

The Houston Texans were perhaps the NFL's biggest disappointment in 2013. Correction: They WERE the league's biggest disappointment. In fact, it wasn't even close.

Houston opened the year as the league's 7th best team according to the ESPN's Power Ranking system. Where did they finish you ask? Dead. Last.




2012 Season: 12-4 regular season. Wild Card victory against Cincinatti.
                       Divisional Round Loss to New England.


2013 Season: 2-14 Regular Season. 14 straight losses.

Casualties: Gary Kubiak, Ray Marciano, Wade Phillips, Rick Dennison, Matt Schaub ability's to throw the ball to his own team.

Complete List of Terminations


How could a unit with so much supposed talent, so much promise, find themselves free falling to bowels of the NFL? As a Houston native I've stayed up many nights crying into my pillow a la Tobais Funke wondering the exact same thing. In summary many aging players who did not deserve lofty contracts(Schaub, Foster, Reed, Walter) inked huge deals and underperformed mightily. The lack of cap space proved deadly, leading to the departure of Mike Brisel and most notably right tackle Eric Winston. The importance of the offensive line cannot be understated. Injuries ensued and an offensive scheme appeared dated. If you are a self-loathing Texans fan my boy Bill Barnwell has you covered with more details. Barnwell is the G.O.A.T.

But for the rest of us after any bad breakup, it's time to move on.

Make no mistake, this is a destitute team with many issues and numerous needs. One draft selection will NOT make this team a contender or even a postseason threat. But as much as any other professional sports league, the #1 pick in the NFL is a powerful beast. Don't believe me? Have a sip of this.

(Per +NFLStats)

Hall of Famer's Selected by Round:

1st: 102
2nd: 32
3rd: 21
4th: 8
5th: 6
6th: 1
7th: 9
8th or more 26
Undrafted: 15

Andrew Luck, Cam Newton, Eli Manning, Peyton Manning, Orlando Pace, Troy Aikman, Steve Young, John Elway, Earl Campbell, Jim Plunkett, Bruce Smith, Bo Jackson, O.J. Simpson, Chuck Bednarik.

All #1 Overall Picks.

Tim Couch, Jamarcus Russell, Courtney Brown, Ryan Leaf, Ki-Jana Carter, and last but not least David Carr.

All #1 Overall Picks.

The #1 overall pick boasts more leverage than any financial instrument an investment bank can offer. It's for many teams the first step to super bowl glory, but for other organizations another mistake that sets their franchise back another 5 years. When a #1 overall pick misses coaches are fired, GMs are replaced, and fans are left with bitter tastes in their mouths.

Trey Wingo echoed it best on Twitter yesterday by stating "In the NFL, there is no offseason."

Every day is an opportunity to improve or retrograde. Just as the new Texans coaching staff(THE HOUSTON PATRIOTS) is working intensely to make their mark in the AFC South, as am I. Here are the three primary routes for the Texans to travel in the Bill O'Brien era.

*Assessments to change post combine/pro-day workouts

1. Blake Bortles



I firmly believe O'Brien has found his gunslinger of the future in Blake Bortles. Media reports are swirling that the Texans are closing in on two QB's, presumably Manziel or Bortles.

Blake Bortles has deep ties to O'Brien. Last season at Central Florida, Bortles led UCF to a 27-20 win against O'Brien's Penn State University. The Texans HC got an up close and personal look at the physical and cerebral abilities of Bortles and was impressed to say the least.

Here's what O'Brien had to say regarding Bortles in his opening presser as Texans HC:

“I was able to see Blake Bortles up-close because we played Central Florida at Penn State and they beat us.  He was a smart player. An accurate passer. A guy that could do a lot of different things.  You could tell he was really a student of the game.  He’s a good football player.”

George O'Leary, Bortles college coach at UCF, first hired Bill O'Brien as a graduate assistant in 1995 at Georgia Tech. (Irish Much?)

O'Brien and O'Leary

O'Brien also recently hired George Godsey to serve as Houston's QB coach. Godsey developed a rapport with O'Brien when he coached along side him in New England.(TE's coach)  Oh and did I forget to mention Godsey coached at the University of Central Florida until 2008, Bortles' first season on campus as red shirt freshman? You can't make this stuff up.

Sure there are some strange relational connections between Bortles and O'Brien, but are these legitimate reasons to draft him at the #1 overall pick? No, but Bortles skill set, physical ability, and style of play are reasons to either trade down and draft him or select him before everyone else.

O'Brien's offense is the poster child of a modern day "pro style" attack. He uses multiple tight end sets and loves to use the fullback in the running game. In a league where many full backs are disappearing from rosters due to the integration of the spread, O'Brien still enjoys sending a run blocker in motion.

Running his variation of the pro style requires a heady quarterback who is able to make many checks at the line. His system is "highly complicated." In New England he worked with a future hall of famer in Tom Brady. He won't have that luxury this time around. But he did refer to Bortles as a "student of the game."

Bortles' physical attributes equate to O'Brien's offense better than Manziel's. Bortles is 4 inches taller and possesses a more traditional quarterback style in comparison to Manziel's erratic and often spectacular style of improvisation. Manziel's ability to thrive in a spread offense may make him better suited in Cleveland. (But more on that later)

Bortles Full Game Highlights @ Penn State




Game Winning Drive @ Louisville ^


Trent Dilfer believes one of the most important traits found in a successful NFL quarterback is "competitive poise". Competitive poise is hard to quantity but think of it as the ability to maintain your entire emotional capacity while increasing your competitive edge. Quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck rarely change their facial expressions or berate their teammates for screwing up in pressure situations. When tensions are high it's easy for human beings to lose their sense of poise. Instead these players look within themselves to take responsibility for their team's wins and losses in crunch time. Competitive poise is one of the main qualities I look at in quarterback evaluations.

 Bortles embodies the very essence of this quality. Leading comeback wins against South Carolina, Memphis, Louisville, Temple, and Baylor, Bortles does not waver in moments of pressure. When the moment gets bigger, so does his level of play. He often throws errant passes but manages to move to the next play quickly. He possesses the rare ability to put mistakes in the rear view.

Physically he is the most gifted signal caller in the 2013 class. At 6'4 240 pounds scouts have said he resembles Andrew Luck when moving in and out of the pocket. He is no where near as polished as Luck as far as throwing the ball down field to open receivers. UCF's offense relied on many quick outs and wide receiver screens so the combine will help us know more about his ability to throw the ball down the middle of the field accurately and effectively.


2. Jadeveon Clowney

 


The smart money may be found in drafting Jadaveon Clowney. At least the owner's money is.

 McNair Envisions Watt & Clowney Tandem

The dude defines the word FREAK. If Clowney tests anywhere near where I think he's capable at the combine, he will shatter records of size and speed. Many people say he has a lack of worth ethic citing his dismal Junior season and overall demeanor. What if Clowney was merely sleep walking with his eyes on NFL glory? He's predicted "amazing" numbers for himself and is saying he "should be the #1 pick."

A Watt and Clowney tandem in the 4-3 as edge rushers would unbearable for opposing offensive lines. Watt's sternness and laser focus on perfection could inspire Clowney to reach his full potential. The great way to negate a future HOF QB in Andrew Luck is to put him on his backside.
Clowney just may be the Texans #1 overall pick if Bortles performs poorly in March.

3. Johnny Manziel



 Certain athletes evoke emotions of love and hatred in the same breath. Johnny Manziel is one of the chosen few.

"Johnny Football" is more than just a quarterback. He's a brand. When you are friends with Drake, you lose the right to be called a student athlete. Sitting courtside at Miami Heat games. On a first name basis with Lebron James. Swagger through the roof. Not a bad life, kid.

Forget the fame and controversy let's talk about that action boss. What Manziel was able to accomplish at the collegiate level was astonishing. 


He followed up his Heisman winning freshman season with 4114 yards, 37 touchdowns, and only 13 interceptions. Coupling that with 800 yards and 9 touchdowns on the ground, these are almost video game numbers.

His performance against Alabama sticks out in my mind reflecting on his sophomore campaign. Against the country's best defense Manziel was unstoppable. Time and time again he led A&M's offense down the field at will. That day he told the world I am a legitimate NFL prospect.

I believe Manziel is poised for success at the next level. Whether that success is short lived or long lasting is another story entirely. His style of play may be to the detriment of his physical being. Then again his build is very compact at 6'1 210 similar to Russell Wilson's thickness. I wish him success and tremendous health and hope he can learn to protect his body at the next level.

When I watch Manziel escape the pocket as he spins to his left, I see shades of Tony Romo. What Manziel needs is a coach to adapt to his style, not the latter. His skill set is rare.

Manziel to Cleveland makes sense to me. Kyle Shanahan is the new OC in town and he lit the world on fire with a variation of the pistol/zone-read with a mobile quarterback named Robert Griffin III.

Wade Phillip's told the Texans before he exited the door they should draft Johnny Football.

Could you imagine Manziel in a Texans uniform? The amount of revenue the Texans could generate off a ticket and jersey sales from the local A&M base would be some AUTOGRAPH STACKS.


Key Upcoming Dates:

  • NFL Combine (February 19-25)
  • Free Agency Period Begins (March 11th)
  • NFL Annual Meeting (March 23rd-26th)
  • 2014 NFL Draft (May 8th-10th)