Running Back Break Outs in 2013

The Art of YPC Analysis

"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" -Leonardo Da Vinci

Beauty is not often found amidst the complexity of life, but rather in the most customary of settings. A sunset, a single mother working two jobs to provide for her family, a friend selflessly standing up for another, a young child's laughter. This things move us. They create a stirring within our very being. And yet these moments are ordinary, every day occurrences. 

As fantasy analysts, we consistently search for the one statistical anomaly that will separate us from our opponents. Examining strength of schedule, trends, NFL draft combine results, offseason player movement, offensive line grades, and other methods, we hope to gain an advantage in our draft preparation. But frequently these efforts get lost in the complexity of meaningless numbers. We are bogged down in the lies of mass quantities and irregularities of information.
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The truth is found in the ordinary.


Running backs should be measured by one thing. Yards Per Carry. No stat in all professional sports more accurately gages the effectiveness of a player at any position. Aside from pass protection and receiving, a running back's only goal is to run behind his lineman and gain as many yards as possible. Conversely, a quarterback possesses a multitude of duties that include calling the play, reading the defense, finding open receivers, and keeping his team on the same page. There are a lot less intangibles with backfield players. YPC truly assesses the efficiency of a ball carrier. How good are you really at your job? 



Yards Per Carry is obviously not a perfect statistic. It fails to take into account performance of a running back's offensive line, which is vitally important. A great offensive line can take a mediocre ball carrier and turn him into a good one. But despite their efforts, 5 dominant men cannot transform a good back turn him into a great one. A great back simply is. Regardless of the big uglies in front him, a great runner makes plays happen that leave our jaws on the floor. An elite back makes cuts, jukes, and moves that make up for missed blocks and blow assignments. As a former offensive lineman (cue the fat jokes), I could pin my man on the ground but if I was blocking for someone with average speed, vision, and explosion, the results were four yards at best. Barry Sanders is this theory's best illustration. The lions offensive line defined mediocrity. And yet no rushing attack made defenses over prepare and cringe with fear like the Detroit Lions. Why? Because Barry was great. And his YPC demonstrates that to us.

Using YPC Analysis

YPC is not only a powerful statistic, but more relevantly a tremendous forecaster for future fantasy success. 

Let's give this discussion some context.

Over the years I've studied the running back position quite extensively. The point differential between the 1st and 25th best player is greater at RB than any other fantasy position, and this is where you can gain a huge leg on the competition. For the last 5 years, I've drafted RBs based strictly on the player's YPC and talent demonstrated on tape. I have had tremendous success using this method. Below are my rules for drafting RBs.

YPC Forecasting Rules:

1. Search for young players with near or above a 5.0 YPC. 
2. Must have a sample size of over 50 carries.
3. Must be receiving an increased workload from previous season

Prior Forecasts

Upon my 2009 fantasy draft, I scoured player lists searching for young sleeper running backs heading into the season. I had a strategy in place to draft two stud running backs, and the roll the dice on young talent in the later rounds for a flex position. A young player for the Kansas City Chiefs caught my eye.

Jamaal Charles

2008

• 67 Attempts
• 5.3 YPC
• 357 Yards Rushing

Even though 67 carries is a fairly small sample size, the 5.3 YPC over that period was staggering. Kansas City at the time boasted a very good offensive line(we salute you Willie Roaf), but Charles was amassing substantially more per carry than Larry Johnson or any of his other backfield mates competing for carries. Talent will usually win out, and Charles' quietly a cut above others on his team. I knew if he could just stay healthy and see an increase in workload, the yards and gaudy fantasy numbers would follow.

Jamaal Charles 

2009 

• Attempts: 190
• YPC: 5.8
• Rushing Yards: 1120

The rest was history. Jamaal currently possess the highest YPC in NFL history, and is viewed by fellow Reservations 4-Six contributor Joe Turnbull and I as the most efficient player in the history of the position. What do Barry Sanders (5.0), Adrian Peterson (5.0), Gayle Sayers (5.0), and Jim Brown (5.2) have in common? They all earned career YPCs over 5.0, and yet trail Charles' average of 5.8. His upside is only capped by his physical frailty and the coaches choice to limit carries. In 2013, he will easily eclipse 300 total touches and barring injury have his best season to date. Quite possibly the best season among NFL running backs. And why you ask? Because he's good. Really good. And his YPC demonstrates this to us.

Stevan Ridley 

2011:

• Attempts: 87 
• Yards: 441 
• YPC 5.1

2012: 

• Attempts 290
•  Yards 1263
• YPC 4.4

Same song, different dance. Ridley's 5.1 YPC in his rookie was a huge indicator of the ability to run for big numbers in his sophomore season. Large YPC's show a back's potential and need for a larger work load. And while his average diminished due to a greater workload, he far from disappointed fantasy owners putting solid yardage and a hefty 12 touchdowns. Cash money.

CJ Spiller

2011 

• 107 Attempts  
• 561 Yards   
• 5.2 YPC

After a nice sophomore season, Spiller was the back I had to have last pre season. His 5.2 YPC along with unbelievable speed, hands, and vision screamed a break out for him in 2012.

2012 

• 207 Attempts 
• 1,244 Yards 
• 6.0 YPC

I knew Spiller would burst onto the scene, but  I cannot honestly say I saw him turning the league upside down. CJ will be drafted in the first round for the next 5 years if he can stay healthy.



So what do these applications and stories have anything to do with 2013? 

The here and now?   

More than you ever thought possible. 

Running Back Break Outs in 2013

1. David Wilson

2012 Rookie Season: YPC 5.0

"I just can't draft a player that high in a timeshare. It's a 50-50 split for carries"

Fret no more scared of time share guy. The league's best young back will be running solo due to the unfortunate injury of Andre Brown, giving David Wilson the opportunity of a life time. For the first 4-6 weeks and possibly the entire 2013 season, the league will be mesmerized by the sheer talent and explosiveness of my favorite player heading into 2013. His 5.0 YPC in his rookie season is just the beginning of an illustrious career. Wilson exploded in the preseason, rushing for 90 yards on only 5 carries in one game. Not only is wilson's balance the best I have ever seen, he will also provide PPR support catching dump offs from Eli. Hop on the bandwagon while you still can and hold on for dear life.

2. Chris Ivory

This is where it gets controversial. The haters are trolling in droves to doubt Chris Ivory's fantasy potential in 2013. The negatives are evident to anyone who knows Ivory's situation. I GET IT. Historically horrendous health, terrible situation, zero ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. 

But take one look at these numbers, and I'll make you think twice.

YPC History
2010: 5.2 (139 Attempts)
2011: 4.7 (79 Attempts)
2012: 5.4 (40 Attempts)

Ivory has so much wiggle room on YPC it's scary. Even his workload increases dramatically(it will) and his average falls by an entire yard, all he has to hit is 228 carries to eclipse 1,000 yards. Shonne Greene rushed for over 1K on a ridiculous 276 attempts. And let's be honest, Shonne Greene might be one of the least talented players running the rock in the game today. Not the case with Ivory. Just watch his highlights on youtube. He runs like he's mad at the grass. Sure the Saints offensive line is one of the league's best, but don't forget all pro guard Carl Nicks left for Tampa in 2011. Injuries are the only thing in my mind that can stop the "Pain Train" from eclipsing 1,300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Fingers crossed and keep the ambulances at bay.

3. Lamar Miller

2012: 51 Attempts, 4.9 YPC

Did someone order another running back from "The U" with scary speed and acceleration? Lamar Miller at your service. In limited work for Miami last season, Miller demonstrated killer burst to get to the edge and the willingness to run hard between the tackles. Amassing a YPC of almost 5.0, we must pause and take notice. Oh yeah, and Miller put in WORK this offseason. All caps WORK. Miller trained at Bommarito Performance systems with other elite running backs across the league, including another Canes legend Frank Gore. For those unfamiliar with Pete Bommarito, he is a man that has trained a number of elite-level backs for many years.  Basically he's seen more talent walk through the door than a "We Are the World" music video. So when he states Miller is "the fastest running back" he's ever seen, we must again pause and take notice. Pause. Take Notice. Repeat.

Miller is by far the most talented player in the Fins backfield if not the most talented back in the AFC East behind CJ spiller. RIP to the rumors of a timeshare developing between him and Daniel Thomas. Miller won the job outright and according to Dolphins' writer Armando Salguero has "sewn up" the starting role. Massive amount of carries, catches, yards and touchdowns to follow. It's Miller Time. And yes, I do hate myself a little for that pun.

It's Time

Yards per carry forecasting is far from an exact science. But there is no greater meter of a running backs ability, efficiency, and means to predict future success. These three names will light up scoreboards, highlights reels, and opposing fantasy teams this season. I just hope for your sake they are on your roster. 

On the last Sunday before a full slate of games and mass national hysteria, enjoy the peace and quiet. This is the calm before the storm.

Welcome to the art of YPC.

Kenbrell Thompkins: A top-20 WR in 2013?

I am a short, white wide receiver. Not in the NFL, no, but I do play in my share of competitive flag football leagues. Every game when I start making plays, the other team yells at each other "Hey! Who has Welker?" - Welker? I can only assume they are referring to Wes Welker, another short, white wide receiver.

I HATE this comparison. I play nothing like Welker. If anything I would compare the way I play to Davone Bess, or former NYG Steve Smith during '08-'09 seasons.

Which brings me to the point. Analysts need to stop comparing Amendola, another white, short receiver, to Wes Welker.

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It's not hard to find an analyst on the web raving about the possibilities of Amendola catching 100+ balls, seamlessly stepping into Welker's old role on a pass-heavy, Brady led offense. But I just don't see this happening after going over film on both players.

Here are some of the key differences I've noticed:

1. Welker is a physical receiver.

You have to be physical running quick slants over the middle, or sitting in the gap in a zone defense. Welker is superb on plays that are not making any YouTube Highlight videos anytime soon. He uses his body as well as any WR I have seen. He creates separation between the ball and the defender by pivoting on a dime and boxing out like Dwight Howard in the paint, all at top speeds.

Amendola has just not been willing to body up with defenders so far in his career like Welker has. This lack of physicality will give defenders better position on the football and more chances to break up plays.

2. Helping out the QB.

True Amendola is shifty, and quick out of his breaks like Welker is. However, Amendola is always looking for the big play. He gets separation out of the break and then runs to open field wanting to be led by his QB for big gains. While this seems logical, it is not always the smart thing for a WR to do.

After he gets separation, Welker does not run in the direction that will most likely lead to him making a big play. He runs to where it will be the easiest for his QB to make the throw. He often cuts hard, back towards the line of scrimmage, or across field, into his QB's throwing lanes. He doesn't wait for the ball to come to him. He simply goes and gets the football.

3. Ball skills and security

Amendola has a pretty impressive catch rate (receptions/catchable passes). However this is with a pretty small sample size of targets relative to Welker, and after watching game tape, Amendola's ball skills are not up to par with Welker's.

Amendola catches the ball against his chest too often. This could be a problem on fast passes thrown across the middle into traffic. When the ball is caught with the body first, it is easy to lose possession upon immediate contact by a defender. This is because the ball is not properly secured by the hands at 2 pressure points. You know those passes where you swear the receiver should have held on to the ball because it seemingly went all the way into his belly. Yeah, it was in his stomach, just not in his hands.

Welker gets the ball at it's highest or first available point, and then quickly tucks the football into his body. He also does a fantastic job of covering the ball up with both hands when he senses high traffic. These may seem like small nuances to the casual viewer, but can make all the difference in the flow of a game. Because Welker excelled at the little things, he gained Brady's full trust.

Now this brings us to the key similarities I have noticed between the two WRs:

White. Short. WR. Texas Tech.

I could make more comparisons about the two, but this article is about how they are different. Question anyone that makes the assumption that Welker and Amendola are similar players. Ask them why they think this is true. I firmly believe Amendola will fall short of analysts expectations in 2013.


Insert Kenbrell Thompkins, the true star of this article.

If you haven't heard of Kenbrell Thompkins, everyone's favorite sleeper pick, then you are probably A) playing fantasy Fútbol not Football, or B) drifting off into space further than Sandra Bullock in the new GRAVITY trailer.

In a recent Yahoo article, Brad Evans captions a photo of Kenbrell, "Thompkins' sleeper label just expired." I beg to differ.

Thompkins' is currently the 34th receiver coming off the board, according to Fantasy Football Calculator's ADP. I fully believe he will crack the top-20 at the position this year and will emerge as the Patriots' leader in receiving yards and receptions.

Kenbrell is a physically gifted WR at 6-1, 195 lbs, with massive hands that make an NFL football look like the 2-colored Nerf ones we all used to play with back in elementary school. He has already locked up a starting spot as the Patriots primary outside WR and deep threat. He gets off the line of scrimmage quickly, catches the ball at its highest point when downfield, and controls his body nicely in traffic.

Plus, he has earned Brady's trust as they have developed excellent chemistry in the preseason to the tune of a 13 catch, 142 yards stat line. Yes, it's "only" the preseason, but that was also done in about 6 quarters of football, against first team defenses.

I am fully aware of the other weapons the Patriots have available. Vereen taking away targets in the passing game. Dobson not far behind on the depth chart. Gronk dominating targets when he comes back from injury.

Thompkins will be the go-to guy at the beginning of the season when it's time for a big play. Tom Brady has a nack for making good, although unheard of WRs, great. Once Kenbrell gets going in 2013 he will not slow down and can realistically lead the Patriots in receptions and yards. Think around AJ Green rookie numbers. The difference being: AJ had Dalton, Thompkins has Brady.

Amendola is going in the late 3rd/early 4th round according to his ADP. Let someone else take the risk on him there and instead try to build RB depth with Eddie Lacy, Lamar Miller, or Giovani Bernard at this point in the draft.

Target Kenbrell as early as the 6th round and draft with confidence.

2013 Reservations for Danny Amendola: 76-855-5

2013 Reservations for Kenbrell Thompkins: 88-1075-9