Its The Most Wonderful Time of The Year (AFC West)

San Diego Chargers 12-4

Former First round pick Ryan Matthews is an exceptional talent who will provide many explosive plays in the run game making them a very dynamic offense. He brings great elusiveness, good speed and very good power for his size allowing him to run through many tackles. Phillip Rivers will have his number one wide out Vincent Jackson back for a full season. The two will terrorize defenses all season long. Antonio Gates was able to go in their last preseason game and practice afterwards without limitations. He's always an injury risk but he appears to be healthy. The chargers brought back FA WR Malcom Floyd, although he suffered a concussion just 2 weeks ago it is said to only be minor and he should be ready to provide the chargers with a nice deep option (19.4 ypc last season). Rookie WR Vincent Brown is a very good route runner and another sure handed option for Rivers. He brings them depth and could emerge as a legitimate part of the offense as the season progresses. Their defense has been very solid over the last few years (number 1 overall last year in total defense) and they added snake bitten Bob Sanders this offseason who has the potential (if he can stay healthy) to make this defense dominate. The Chargers play in a fairly weak division and should have little trouble this season taking it back over after a one year lapse.

Oakland Raiders 8-8

The Raiders accomplished something last year that no other team in NFL history has ever done. They swept their division but failed to win it or even make the playoffs. Their will be no divisional sweep for the raiders this season but they will again be very competitive. Breakout Star Darren McFadden will be the focal point of the offense and carry them to victory from time to time. The rest of their rushing attack will be filled by Michael Bush and the game breaking rookie Taiwan Jones. Completing what looks like the best trio of RBs in the NFL. Teams will be forced to stack the box early and often and in doing so will be susceptible to big plays downfield to lightning fast Jacoby Ford and his 2011 PIC Denarius Moore and even.... dare I say.... Darius Heyward-bay? If he ever learns how to catch he might even get into the mix with an occasional play downfield. Jason Campbell will need time to unleash the deep ball which is something the raiders could struggle with. If given time however, he should be able to make things happen in the passing game whether it’s going long to ford and company, throwing newly acquired Kevin Boss underneath or dumping it off to McFadden in space. The loss of Nnamdi Asomugha will hurt their defense (2nd against the pass last season) but given their high volume rushing attack their D is likely to stay fresh longer, alleviating some of the pressure. Despite the loss of their Defensive player the Raiders are a team on the rise and an exciting one with their vast group of game breakers.

Kansas City Chiefs 6-10

The loss of OC Charlie Weis will prove costly for the defending AFC West champs. In the two games without him last season Matt Cassel posted the following stat lines: 11-33 for 115 yards 2 INTs 0TDs 9-18 for 70 yards 3INTs 0 TDs. These stat lines, although a very small sample size, are quite alarming to say the least. The releasing of perennial pro bowl Gaurd Brian Waters and the loss of TE Tony Moeaki (torn ACL) will also prove problematic. Waters a more then dependable blocker and Moeaki a sure handed safety valve who doubles as a big play threat (was expected to see an increased role in the offense being a major contributor) will be deeply missed. The additions of FA Steve Breaston (familiar with the offense) and high upside Rookie Johnathon Baldwin do bring hope. Unfortunately due to Baldwins character issues he injured himself in a scuffle with teammate Thomas Jones, sidelining him for potentially 6-8 weeks, limiting his impact. Steve Breaston and the rest of the offense have proved non-existent in the preseason. Just preseason, I know, but hard not to notice how utterly abysmal their showcase has been. The Chiefs rode their elite run game to success last season as they took full advantage of a soft schedule. This year however they must face the likes of the Pats, Steelers, Packers, Jets, Lions, Colts and of course their divisional foes twice each. The 2011 outlook is not too good for the KC Cheifs.

Denver Broncos 5-11

The Josh McDaniels era has ended and the John Fox era is about to kickoff. Fox will run the ball as much as he can, force feeding Moreno and McGahee, but when he’s had the weapons his offenses have had good passing totals. Remember once upon a time Jake Delhome was a pro bowler with 3,886 yards and 29 TDs season to his credit and Steve Smith was regarded as the best WR in football. Last season Kyle Orton threw for over 3600 yards and 20 TDs in just 13 games and Brandon Lloyd had a career high 1448 yard 11 TD out burst. Their Defense isn’t without flaws (finishing 32 last year.... dead last). The team will be forced to pass much more than John Fox would like but they will have success through the air via the cast of Lloyd, Demaryius Thomas, Eddie Royal and the emergence of Eric Decker. Von Miller will help improve their defense, leaving much less time for opposing QBs to throw, but miller can't bring back their defense to respectability on his own. The broncos will once again have opposing offenses foaming at the mouth the entire week leading up to their match ups.

The San Diego Chargers look primed to finally breakout of this division and emerge as the AFC representative in the Super Bowl

The Talents in South Beach

Not 1, Not 2, Not 3..... Not 7.... Wins for the Dolphins in 2011

Two seasons ago the Bills hosted the Patriots in the first act of the opening Monday Night Football  doubleheader and were just a fumbled kickoff away from stunning the Pats. Last season we saw the Chiefs takedown the San Diego Chargers in the Opening Monday Night Football contest and went on to wear the Division Crown.The Dolphins will kickoff the season hosting the New England Patriots and they will be looking to send a message to the rest of the league.

        The Dolphins enter the 2011 season with little to no expectations. Head coach Tony Sparano will be coaching for his job. He will be looking to do anything and everything to keep it. Enter offensive coordinator Brian Daboll. He will spice up their bland offense with more down field plays and some creative gaget plays such as this http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bM77uExPycY&feature=related
2011 may also be Chad Henne's last chance as a starting NFL QB. He will be more motivated than ever to prove all his doubters wrong. He won't have to carry the team himself. He has help.

Brandon Marshall is one of the most physically gifted WRs in the game today. He has tremendous after the catch ability. Marshall had posted a 3 year average of 102 catches and 1236 yards 7.7 tds (eclipsing 100 catches and 1120 yards and 6tds each season ) before last years 86 catch 1014 yards 3td out put (in 14 games). Marshall struggled with injuries for much of last season which prevented him from providing his usual big plays. Marshall is completely healthy this season having all his past abilities back as shown by his 60 yard TD reception against the Bucs in wk 3 of the preseason. Something Marshall will be doing often this season. Making big plays. Then comes the Reggie Bush Factor. He's a matchup nightmare who can prove to be quite the offensive asset even as a decoy. He will be used all over the field in many different packages. He will not only give the dolphins another big play threat He will also open things up for the rest of the offense, making life a lot easier on Henne. The domino effect that Bush brings will help a guy like Davone Bess with his great route running skills and even better hands thrive. Bess is a more than reliable WR who catches everything thrown his way. His catches, yards and TD totals have increased every year of his career. Brian Hartline also stands to benefit as he’s a speedy sure handed WR who will be able to make many plays downfield with defenses keying in of Marshall and Bush. Then there’s rookie wide out Clyde Gates, just another weapon for Brian Daboll to cook up things with. Once adapted to the NFL and comfortable with his role Gates and his sub 4.4 speed will thrive in the offense. The drafting of Pouncy will help open things up in the running game, particularly in short yardage situations. Helping them extend drives and punch in short yardage TDs. The signing of Larry "grandmama" Johnson coupled with his immediate anointment of the number two back role should be more than enough to light a fire under 2nd round pick Daniel Thomas who has taken a lot of heat in camp for "tentative running at the goaline" and "tip toeing". If the 230 lb Thomas can change to a more hard nosed style he will be an added weapon for the dolphins.

        The dolphins will be a team to watch this season as they have the potential to be one of the surprises (they had the 6th best statistical Defense last year, if they can stay near that good they will receive help with the offense primed for a big leap). Unfortunately they have to compete with the Jets and Patriots for a divisional title but football is a crazy unpredictable game. The Stars align for even the unlikeliest of teams sometimes. Will it be the dolphins in 2011? We will all find out the answer to that soon enough, but the most certainly are a team with sleeping giant potential.

Its the Most Wonderful Time Of the Year

After a long scare from the lockout we are just a week away from the 2011 season officially kicking off. Just one week from being able to kick back on Sundays and watch the greatest sport in the world being played. The Packers hold the crown but repeats are hard to come by. So who will reign supreme in 2011? What teams will surprise, which will disappoint? Heres a look at the NFC


NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles 12-4

I look for the Eagles to just beat out the Dallas Cowboys after splitting the regular season match ups. The Eagles are incredibly explosive, but they lack the ability to play tough grind it out ball. Its because of this I look for their play making ability to carry them early on before later wearing down and backing into the playoffs. It's bold but I believe the eagles will make their way to 9-0 before suffering back to back losses to first division rival Giants and then the New England Patriots. Over that stretch I see their games against the Rams, Bills, Redskins, Cardinals, Bears, and 49ers as virtual locks. They are far superior on both sides of the ball then the Rams, Bills, Cardinals and 49ers. The Bears a great job of containing (with the help of some terrible field conditions) Vick last year, but One, you cant contain Vick forever (example NYG) and Two the eagles are improved with Andy Reid having an entire offseason to better morph the offense to fit Vick. I also see the bears taking a step back this season from where they were last year. They are tested right away in week two against the Falcons in the Georgia dome, but I don't see anyway Vick goes back to the dome and takes a loss. He will be too motivated, too focused. And he will take full advantage of Atlanta’s questionable secondary. Eagles win 31-17. Their game against the Cowboys will be tough as well, but its a home game and they are coming off a bye so I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they will continue their win streak. Their home stretch (weeks 15-17) will be against the NYJ, @DAL and WAS (who will be looking to play spoiler if there is anything to spoil). A December matchup against the Jets means a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and some good ole smash mouth football. The Jets will be too physical too handle as they will be trying to keep pace with the Pats and will just pound the ball and wear down the eagles eventually breaking away in the 4th. Cowboys come up next who will be in a very tight race with these Eagles. I see the Boys riding the momentum of a late season win streak to victory marking the Eagles 4th loss. Eagles rebound to clinch the division with a victory over Washington Week 17

2. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

The Boys will fall just short of the Division crown but will ride into the playoffs hot (potentially a 9 game win streak). The formula to reaching the Super bowl. Rob Ryan will have their defense improving as the year goes on. Their Offense will blossom with Romo back under center with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Kevin Ogletree and Felix Jones out of the backfield. They may not get off to the best of starts, but they will come together at some point during the year and won’t look back

3. New York Giants 8-8

Facing a very tough schedule including the likes of the Pats, Saints, Packers, Jets and of course their tough divisional game. Lacking the dominate D that once carried them to a Superbowl there’s only so much the Jet Blue Offense can do.

4. Washington Redskins 7-9

Year 2 under Shanahan should bring more highs for the redskins than in year one. They will be much more aggressive on D which will exploit teams weak in pass protection and help create Turnovers. Tim Hightower and company will provide solid production from the Running game and their Passing game should have some big plays mixed in with their underrated group of WRs. Ultimately though, the skins lack the talent to keep up with the rest of the division.

NFC NORTH

                                                            Green Bay Packers 14-2

The drafting of Randall Cobb and Alex Green will provide explosiveness in the return game and youth off the bench to fill in for or spell the likes of Donald Driver or Ryan Grant. Grant and Green will much improve their Running game. The Return of Jermichael Finley Completes the most extensive arsenal in Football. The packer’s offense should be nearly unstoppable as it was already dynamic without their Number one Pass Catcher. With a healthy Finley they will have nothing but mismatches for Aaron Rodgers to exploit. Their Defense should pick up right where it left off as well, lead by Clay Matthews and Charles Woodsen the Packers are ready for their Title Defense.

2. Detroit Lions 10-6

Yes, I'm all aboard the Detroit bandwagon. Their Defensive Line is flat out scary. Teams will be left one dimensional as they wont be able to run against this dominate group. When you make teams one dimensional good things happen for you defense. They will be able to force many turnovers and wreak havoc on opposing QBs anytime they decide to blitz. Their Offense Lead by Matthew Stafford, will be hard to keep pace with. They are loaded with talent. They lack a bruiser who can help protect leads by picking up tough firstdowns and killing clock, but I don't think it will deter them from too many wins. Calvin Johnson Is uncoverable. Nate Burleson is an excellent compliment opposite of Megatron. He runs very precise routes, is sure handed and has great body control. They have two Great pass catching TE's in Schefler and Petigrew, a good deep threat in rookie Titus Young and the game breaker Jahvid Best out of the backfield. This team is ready to go as far as Stafford is prepared to take them. As long as he can stay on the Field he will lead this young team into the playoffs.

Chicago Bears 7-9

Their Offense is run by Mike Martz who loves to air it out, but the Bears aren't built to do so. It just doesn't work. To execute many of his 5 and 7 step drops Cutler needs time to throw, time for the routes to develop. Unfortunately their O-line just simply can't provide him with the allotted time. I know winning patches up bad blood. It heals all wounds, but how much will Cutlers alleged quitting in the NFC championship game be in the minds of bear players? Perhaps its insignificant, but that’s not something players forget, unless of course you're winning. With games against the Falcons, Saints and Packers the first 3 weeks the wheels could come off rather quickly.

Minnesota Vikings 5-11

McNabb won't be able to lead them back to winning ways. Christian Ponder will see at least 6 starts. Maybe McNabb can be competent enough for the weapons of AP and Harvin to carry the offense which is possible, but All in all this teams outlook is not promising

 

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 13-3

WHO DAT nation will return to the top of the NFC South. A fairly easy string of games on the schedule this year will allow the Saints to just keep on rolling. I believe sweeping the Falcons is quite possible given Atlanta’s switch to an up tempo offense. Who does up tempo better than Drew Brees and the Saints - The addition of Mark Ingram will have the saints doing what makes them such a dominate offense, Running the ball effectively (28th in the league with just 95 yards a game last season. 6th in the league the year before with 131 ypg and second in the NFC in rush attempts) to set up Drew Brees and this high powered offense. With Brees also being healthy his 22 INT season will be a complete anomaly as he will be back to his incredibly efficient ways thanks to a very productive Run game. Pierre Thomas is also back and healthy giving them a very nice one two punch. The emergence of Jimmy Graham will only give this offense yet another dimension. A very big, very athletic target who will thrive on thirdowns and the red zone. The addition of Shaun Rodgers and drafting of Cameron Jordan will help sure up their Run D (16th in the league) which will have a domino effect on the rest of their Defense making everything else better. The Saints looked primed for another Superbowl Run in 2011.

Atlanta Falcons 9-7

How can a young team coming off a 13-3 season miss the playoffs the following year when they only improved in the offseason? "If it ain't broke don't fix it" The falcons and their more conservative run heavy style works for them. It takes pressure off their defense by shortening the game and winning the Time of Possession battle. It’s also good in holding onto the ball preventing Turnovers. Something the Falcons have thrived on. Now an expected change in offensive philosophy to an up tempo style in a lockout shortened offseason could be a recipe for disaster. Although they have the horses to do it with the Addition of Julio Jones and the emergence of Harry Douglas, so did the Cincinatti Bengals last season with TO, Ochocinco, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham when they went  from a division sweep (as a ground and pound team) to a miserable 4-12 season with an air it out style. I'm not saying they are going to be terrible because they won't. I just believe they stand a good chance to take a major step back as they get used to the switch. It will leave their Questionable secondary (22nd last year) more vulnerable as games are likely to be extended the more passes are thrown. The more drop backs you have the more teams will be inclined to throw blitzes at you leaving more room for Turnovers (as throwing more passes alone leads to a likely increase in INT's) They are a very talented team without question, but bumps in the road could indeed put a SuperBowl Run on hold as they will face the likes of the Eagles, Packers, Texans, Colts (later in the year when they should have things together) Detroit and of course the Saints Twice.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

I love Josh Freeman. I'm also a fan of Mike Williams and Blount. I just feel the Bucs over achieved a bit last year. I know you shouldn't read too much into preseason but it’s hard to ignore how awful their O-line has been. If they can't protect Freeman his 25-6 TD:INT ratio will most certainly come down. Blount is a nasty runner but he needs blocking just as much as the next guy. I still think they will be respectable just not in the playoff hunt as they were a year ago.

Carolina Panthers 3-13

When I look at their schedule I just don't see where I can pick out wins. 1-15 is very possible, but there is a lot of parody in the NFL and I guess I'm in a generous mood so I will say 3-13. Maybe Cam Newton comes in and has a Vince Young like rookie season, but I don’t see it. Newton will make plays with his legs and be a force near the Goaline but he will have a tough time reading defenses and .... well.... completing passes to his own team. The panthers were a joke of an offense last year. I don't see a huge improvement here.

 

NFC WEST

St Louis Rams 8-8

Am I crazy to think 8-8 is good enough to win this division back to back years? Maybe, but not a lot has changed. Sure the Cardinals have Kolb now which will be enough to push for this division title, but this division is still weak and has a relatively tough schedule. The progression of Bradford and the added weapons of Lance Kendricks and Mike Sims-Walker coupled with Josh McDaniels offense should be enough to win the division taking Steven Jackson to the place that has long eluded him since his rookie season. The playoffs. A shame for a complete workhorse with 6 straight thousand yard seasons to his credit. Its ok though for 2011 will provide a return to postseason football. After a rough start to the season (I'm projecting a 1-6 start due to a murderers row of Philly, NYG, Baltimore, NO, GB and DAL in the first 7 weeks) the Rams will make a historic return to the top of the division Finishing on a 7-2 run, claiming the division from the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals 7-9

Kevin Kolb is a huge upgrade over the cast the Cardinals had last season. The Cardinals lack an O-line capable of providing consistent protection. It will also be hard pressed to create holes for Beanie Wells to run through. The Cardinals are good enough to win this division given its weakness. I just think the Rams have a better chance.

San Francisco 49ers 6-10

Not a lot to excite here. Alex Smith once again enters as the Starter, but rookie QB Colin Kaepernick waits in the wings. He’s a skilled runner but lacks the passing ability needed to succeed at this level. It just doesn't look good either way. If Gore stays healthy and Smith can play a Trent Dilfer like role at QB they might be able to put some wins together and contend for the division. As of right now I just don’t see it happening

Seattle Seahawks 4-12

With Tavaris Jackson under center and a defense mediocre at best (27th last season) The outlook is very very bad. There will not be a return trip to the playoffs. Seattle will be a bottom dweller in 2011

 

PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Packers

2. Saints

Wildcard Weekend

3. Eagles vs

6. Lions

4. Rams vs

5. Cowboys

Divisional Round

Packers vs Lions

Saints vs Cowboys

NFC Championship

Packers vs Cowboys

NFC Champ

I Love the Packers chance at repeating at least as NFC champs but in todays game it's just so difficult to repeat. Their Offense Will be nearly unstoppable through the Air, but In the one and done format of the NFL playoffs anything can Happen. I think it may just be time for the Cowboys who seem to be out of the spotlight without the Super Bowl or Bust campaign going to finally reach the Pinnacle and capture an NFC tittle. Like the Packers they are loaded on offense. The Emergence of Felix Jones who may just be the Key to a Super Bowl run as deemed by Jerry Jones "If Jones does well, we will do well the better he does the further we go" will be huge. A threat to take it the distance anytime he touches the ball. Health will be a huge factor for the cowboys as health concerns surround their best two weapons (Dez and Jones). Their Health will be key, but 2011 just may indeed bring a return of Jerrys World.

Threes Please

With more and more Freakishly Athletic Vertical weapons entering the NFL every year and more Young Gun QBs with elite potential, Offensive philosophies are opening up. Making 3rd WRs fantasy relevant.

The ones to own:


 Danny Amendola STL - Yes, He's listed as the teams number one wide out, but the pride of Woodlands, Texas will do his damage from the Slot. Amendola quietly hauled in 85 catches last season. This year in the new Josh McDaniels Offense Danny will fit perfectly in the "Welker Role". He's not as strong or quite as fast as welker but his hands, quickness and route running is all the same. Here’s a sample http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kX6kAu7zQ4s
Amendola has a great chance to have a 100 catch season in this pass happy offense. If he can improve on his incredibly low 8.1 ypc to anything more respectable he's likely headed for a thousand yard season.

 Austin Collie IND - If he can avoid losing his head this season and Manning can step on the field soon Collie will produce and produce big. Remember he had 649 yards and 8 TDs in just 9 games last season with some of those being partial games. Collie is also entering his 3rd season in the NFL. There is a lot of uncertainty and risk buying into this situation at the moment but it is one that can pay off big.

Mike Sims-Walker STL- He's currently the teams 3rd WR, but that should be short lived. He has great breakout potential with the likelihood of being Bradford’s go to guy in a Josh McDaniels offense that turned NFL journeyman Brandon Lloyd into a 1448 yard 11 TD WR last season. That potential alone warrants everyone’s attention. He won't post numbers quite that big but he definitely stands a chance to produce 1000 yards and 7 TDs

 ones to take a chance on

Antonio Brown PIT - Coming on in the playoffs last year with his 58 yard helmet catch to set up the game winning TD in the divisional round and then the game sealing first down reception then next week to send his team to the Super Bowl. Brown Has built on that momentum and become a preseason sensation (9 catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs against first team defenses). Brown possesses great hands and game breaking after the catch skills.  He will enter the season as the Steelers 3rd WR, but could emerge as much more if aging Hines Ward falls off the shelf. Either way the second year wide receiver out of central Michigan will make his mark by make many big plays

 Harry Douglas ATL- Two years removed from an ACL tear, Douglas is finally 100% back. He has regained all his explosiveness that he had coming out of Louisville "shows good upper-body muscle definition...Has rare timed speed and sudden burst to stretch the defense, demonstrating the soft, natural hands..." -  NFL scouting report - His skills were put on full display with his 76 yard TD against the jags in week two of the preseason. With Atlanta airing it out much more this season and with Roddy White and Julio Jones demanding much defensive attention Douglas will have ample opportunity to make more big plays like this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_W7iVVRcyo

Denarius Moore OAK - Listed as the 3rd WR I fully expect Moore To supplant Darrius Heyward-Bust... I mean bay as a starting WR. Moore looks very similar to Mike Wallace. He’s yet another burner for the Raiders. Moore has earned raves at camp, said to be "not only the best WR on the team but the best player". If you're looking for this years Mike Williams (TB of course) you may not have to look any further than Denarius Moore. He and Jacoby Ford will be matchup nightmares for defenses as they both possess great speed and good ball skills. One of them if not both will breakout and have a very nice season. Moore will have a good impact in his rookie season either way.

ones to consider

Davone Bess MIA - Bess has Improved his catch yardage and TD totals every year of his career. He has some of the best hands in the NFL and is a great route runner. Bush may take some catches away from him but with him and Marshall requiring a lot of defensive attention Bess and his precise routes should thrive. With Miami becoming much more aggressive with their play calling this season their will be more balls to go around. Bess is someone who makes the most of his opportunities.

Lance Moore NO - Lace-alot is one of Drew Brees's favorites. He loves throwing to Moore on third downs and even near the goaline on quick slants and screens. Brees pleaded with the Saints organization to retain this FA WR and they did just that handing him a 5 year 20 million dollar deal. The saints do have a plethora of weapons and are likely to run the ball more this season but moore will still get his fair share of looks. If the shaky knees of Colston give him problems Moores production will shoot up largely as he will become a very enticing option.



ones to watch

Anthony Armstrong WAS - Big yards per catch guy with breakout potential

Earl Bennett CHI - A favorite of Cutler in the Mike Martz Offense

Titus Young DET - deep threat in a pass heavy offense. will get better as the season goes on