Its the Most Wonderful Time Of the Year

After a long scare from the lockout we are just a week away from the 2011 season officially kicking off. Just one week from being able to kick back on Sundays and watch the greatest sport in the world being played. The Packers hold the crown but repeats are hard to come by. So who will reign supreme in 2011? What teams will surprise, which will disappoint? Heres a look at the NFC


NFC East

1. Philadelphia Eagles 12-4

I look for the Eagles to just beat out the Dallas Cowboys after splitting the regular season match ups. The Eagles are incredibly explosive, but they lack the ability to play tough grind it out ball. Its because of this I look for their play making ability to carry them early on before later wearing down and backing into the playoffs. It's bold but I believe the eagles will make their way to 9-0 before suffering back to back losses to first division rival Giants and then the New England Patriots. Over that stretch I see their games against the Rams, Bills, Redskins, Cardinals, Bears, and 49ers as virtual locks. They are far superior on both sides of the ball then the Rams, Bills, Cardinals and 49ers. The Bears a great job of containing (with the help of some terrible field conditions) Vick last year, but One, you cant contain Vick forever (example NYG) and Two the eagles are improved with Andy Reid having an entire offseason to better morph the offense to fit Vick. I also see the bears taking a step back this season from where they were last year. They are tested right away in week two against the Falcons in the Georgia dome, but I don't see anyway Vick goes back to the dome and takes a loss. He will be too motivated, too focused. And he will take full advantage of Atlanta’s questionable secondary. Eagles win 31-17. Their game against the Cowboys will be tough as well, but its a home game and they are coming off a bye so I will give them the benefit of the doubt that they will continue their win streak. Their home stretch (weeks 15-17) will be against the NYJ, @DAL and WAS (who will be looking to play spoiler if there is anything to spoil). A December matchup against the Jets means a heavy dose of Shonn Greene and some good ole smash mouth football. The Jets will be too physical too handle as they will be trying to keep pace with the Pats and will just pound the ball and wear down the eagles eventually breaking away in the 4th. Cowboys come up next who will be in a very tight race with these Eagles. I see the Boys riding the momentum of a late season win streak to victory marking the Eagles 4th loss. Eagles rebound to clinch the division with a victory over Washington Week 17

2. Dallas Cowboys 11-5

The Boys will fall just short of the Division crown but will ride into the playoffs hot (potentially a 9 game win streak). The formula to reaching the Super bowl. Rob Ryan will have their defense improving as the year goes on. Their Offense will blossom with Romo back under center with Miles Austin, Dez Bryant, Jason Witten, Kevin Ogletree and Felix Jones out of the backfield. They may not get off to the best of starts, but they will come together at some point during the year and won’t look back

3. New York Giants 8-8

Facing a very tough schedule including the likes of the Pats, Saints, Packers, Jets and of course their tough divisional game. Lacking the dominate D that once carried them to a Superbowl there’s only so much the Jet Blue Offense can do.

4. Washington Redskins 7-9

Year 2 under Shanahan should bring more highs for the redskins than in year one. They will be much more aggressive on D which will exploit teams weak in pass protection and help create Turnovers. Tim Hightower and company will provide solid production from the Running game and their Passing game should have some big plays mixed in with their underrated group of WRs. Ultimately though, the skins lack the talent to keep up with the rest of the division.

NFC NORTH

                                                            Green Bay Packers 14-2

The drafting of Randall Cobb and Alex Green will provide explosiveness in the return game and youth off the bench to fill in for or spell the likes of Donald Driver or Ryan Grant. Grant and Green will much improve their Running game. The Return of Jermichael Finley Completes the most extensive arsenal in Football. The packer’s offense should be nearly unstoppable as it was already dynamic without their Number one Pass Catcher. With a healthy Finley they will have nothing but mismatches for Aaron Rodgers to exploit. Their Defense should pick up right where it left off as well, lead by Clay Matthews and Charles Woodsen the Packers are ready for their Title Defense.

2. Detroit Lions 10-6

Yes, I'm all aboard the Detroit bandwagon. Their Defensive Line is flat out scary. Teams will be left one dimensional as they wont be able to run against this dominate group. When you make teams one dimensional good things happen for you defense. They will be able to force many turnovers and wreak havoc on opposing QBs anytime they decide to blitz. Their Offense Lead by Matthew Stafford, will be hard to keep pace with. They are loaded with talent. They lack a bruiser who can help protect leads by picking up tough firstdowns and killing clock, but I don't think it will deter them from too many wins. Calvin Johnson Is uncoverable. Nate Burleson is an excellent compliment opposite of Megatron. He runs very precise routes, is sure handed and has great body control. They have two Great pass catching TE's in Schefler and Petigrew, a good deep threat in rookie Titus Young and the game breaker Jahvid Best out of the backfield. This team is ready to go as far as Stafford is prepared to take them. As long as he can stay on the Field he will lead this young team into the playoffs.

Chicago Bears 7-9

Their Offense is run by Mike Martz who loves to air it out, but the Bears aren't built to do so. It just doesn't work. To execute many of his 5 and 7 step drops Cutler needs time to throw, time for the routes to develop. Unfortunately their O-line just simply can't provide him with the allotted time. I know winning patches up bad blood. It heals all wounds, but how much will Cutlers alleged quitting in the NFC championship game be in the minds of bear players? Perhaps its insignificant, but that’s not something players forget, unless of course you're winning. With games against the Falcons, Saints and Packers the first 3 weeks the wheels could come off rather quickly.

Minnesota Vikings 5-11

McNabb won't be able to lead them back to winning ways. Christian Ponder will see at least 6 starts. Maybe McNabb can be competent enough for the weapons of AP and Harvin to carry the offense which is possible, but All in all this teams outlook is not promising

 

NFC SOUTH

New Orleans Saints 13-3

WHO DAT nation will return to the top of the NFC South. A fairly easy string of games on the schedule this year will allow the Saints to just keep on rolling. I believe sweeping the Falcons is quite possible given Atlanta’s switch to an up tempo offense. Who does up tempo better than Drew Brees and the Saints - The addition of Mark Ingram will have the saints doing what makes them such a dominate offense, Running the ball effectively (28th in the league with just 95 yards a game last season. 6th in the league the year before with 131 ypg and second in the NFC in rush attempts) to set up Drew Brees and this high powered offense. With Brees also being healthy his 22 INT season will be a complete anomaly as he will be back to his incredibly efficient ways thanks to a very productive Run game. Pierre Thomas is also back and healthy giving them a very nice one two punch. The emergence of Jimmy Graham will only give this offense yet another dimension. A very big, very athletic target who will thrive on thirdowns and the red zone. The addition of Shaun Rodgers and drafting of Cameron Jordan will help sure up their Run D (16th in the league) which will have a domino effect on the rest of their Defense making everything else better. The Saints looked primed for another Superbowl Run in 2011.

Atlanta Falcons 9-7

How can a young team coming off a 13-3 season miss the playoffs the following year when they only improved in the offseason? "If it ain't broke don't fix it" The falcons and their more conservative run heavy style works for them. It takes pressure off their defense by shortening the game and winning the Time of Possession battle. It’s also good in holding onto the ball preventing Turnovers. Something the Falcons have thrived on. Now an expected change in offensive philosophy to an up tempo style in a lockout shortened offseason could be a recipe for disaster. Although they have the horses to do it with the Addition of Julio Jones and the emergence of Harry Douglas, so did the Cincinatti Bengals last season with TO, Ochocinco, Jordan Shipley and Jermaine Gresham when they went  from a division sweep (as a ground and pound team) to a miserable 4-12 season with an air it out style. I'm not saying they are going to be terrible because they won't. I just believe they stand a good chance to take a major step back as they get used to the switch. It will leave their Questionable secondary (22nd last year) more vulnerable as games are likely to be extended the more passes are thrown. The more drop backs you have the more teams will be inclined to throw blitzes at you leaving more room for Turnovers (as throwing more passes alone leads to a likely increase in INT's) They are a very talented team without question, but bumps in the road could indeed put a SuperBowl Run on hold as they will face the likes of the Eagles, Packers, Texans, Colts (later in the year when they should have things together) Detroit and of course the Saints Twice.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8

I love Josh Freeman. I'm also a fan of Mike Williams and Blount. I just feel the Bucs over achieved a bit last year. I know you shouldn't read too much into preseason but it’s hard to ignore how awful their O-line has been. If they can't protect Freeman his 25-6 TD:INT ratio will most certainly come down. Blount is a nasty runner but he needs blocking just as much as the next guy. I still think they will be respectable just not in the playoff hunt as they were a year ago.

Carolina Panthers 3-13

When I look at their schedule I just don't see where I can pick out wins. 1-15 is very possible, but there is a lot of parody in the NFL and I guess I'm in a generous mood so I will say 3-13. Maybe Cam Newton comes in and has a Vince Young like rookie season, but I don’t see it. Newton will make plays with his legs and be a force near the Goaline but he will have a tough time reading defenses and .... well.... completing passes to his own team. The panthers were a joke of an offense last year. I don't see a huge improvement here.

 

NFC WEST

St Louis Rams 8-8

Am I crazy to think 8-8 is good enough to win this division back to back years? Maybe, but not a lot has changed. Sure the Cardinals have Kolb now which will be enough to push for this division title, but this division is still weak and has a relatively tough schedule. The progression of Bradford and the added weapons of Lance Kendricks and Mike Sims-Walker coupled with Josh McDaniels offense should be enough to win the division taking Steven Jackson to the place that has long eluded him since his rookie season. The playoffs. A shame for a complete workhorse with 6 straight thousand yard seasons to his credit. Its ok though for 2011 will provide a return to postseason football. After a rough start to the season (I'm projecting a 1-6 start due to a murderers row of Philly, NYG, Baltimore, NO, GB and DAL in the first 7 weeks) the Rams will make a historic return to the top of the division Finishing on a 7-2 run, claiming the division from the Arizona Cardinals.

Arizona Cardinals 7-9

Kevin Kolb is a huge upgrade over the cast the Cardinals had last season. The Cardinals lack an O-line capable of providing consistent protection. It will also be hard pressed to create holes for Beanie Wells to run through. The Cardinals are good enough to win this division given its weakness. I just think the Rams have a better chance.

San Francisco 49ers 6-10

Not a lot to excite here. Alex Smith once again enters as the Starter, but rookie QB Colin Kaepernick waits in the wings. He’s a skilled runner but lacks the passing ability needed to succeed at this level. It just doesn't look good either way. If Gore stays healthy and Smith can play a Trent Dilfer like role at QB they might be able to put some wins together and contend for the division. As of right now I just don’t see it happening

Seattle Seahawks 4-12

With Tavaris Jackson under center and a defense mediocre at best (27th last season) The outlook is very very bad. There will not be a return trip to the playoffs. Seattle will be a bottom dweller in 2011

 

PLAYOFF TEAMS

1. Packers

2. Saints

Wildcard Weekend

3. Eagles vs

6. Lions

4. Rams vs

5. Cowboys

Divisional Round

Packers vs Lions

Saints vs Cowboys

NFC Championship

Packers vs Cowboys

NFC Champ

I Love the Packers chance at repeating at least as NFC champs but in todays game it's just so difficult to repeat. Their Offense Will be nearly unstoppable through the Air, but In the one and done format of the NFL playoffs anything can Happen. I think it may just be time for the Cowboys who seem to be out of the spotlight without the Super Bowl or Bust campaign going to finally reach the Pinnacle and capture an NFC tittle. Like the Packers they are loaded on offense. The Emergence of Felix Jones who may just be the Key to a Super Bowl run as deemed by Jerry Jones "If Jones does well, we will do well the better he does the further we go" will be huge. A threat to take it the distance anytime he touches the ball. Health will be a huge factor for the cowboys as health concerns surround their best two weapons (Dez and Jones). Their Health will be key, but 2011 just may indeed bring a return of Jerrys World.