Week 4 Game Breakdowns

DET +1.5 @ DAL


The Lions go to Dallas to face their toughest test to date. Possibly catching the Cowboys at the perfect time with all their injuries they currently have. The Dallas defense is 2nd in the league against the run thus far and should make the Lions one dimensional. Rob Ryan's defense will apply pressure to Stafford whos coming off a 5 sack game. When given time Stafford should have no problem finding holes in the Cowboy secondary. This is one of the games of the week even with the injuries on both sides (particularly the cowboys). I'm unsure as to how effective Dez Bryant will be if he plays as he was a shell of himself last week. Without him the Cowboys are very limited on weapons which I think will be the deciding factor. Lions win 20-17


NO -7 @ JAC


Greg Williams will be dialing up different looks and blitzes at Blaine Gabbert. The Jags will lean heavily on MJD, but he will need more than a 100 yard effort to keep this game within reach. Points will be scarce for the Jags, but will be a plenty for the Saints. Brees and the Saints have put up over 34 ppg so far this season and shouldn't have any problem continuing their pace. The Jags should do a good job of stifling Ingram and Thomas limiting the Saints rushing production, but Brees again will hook up with Jimmy Graham and his favorite pass catcher Lance Moore early and often, connecting with either Meachem or Henderson on a deep pass or two and Sproles on check downs screens and swing passes. He will also be getting Colston back from injury, but he might be brought along slowly thus I look for Moore to lead the team in receiving, eclipsing 70 yards and a score with Graham producing similar totals. Yards will be hard to come by for the Jags offense, with Mike Thomas again leading the receiving totals with 50+ and MJD eclipsing the 80 yard mark. Saints win 27-13


SF +8.5 @ PHI


The Eagles will be looking to rebound after back to back loses. Vick will be looking to make a statement. They can't allow the wheels to come off. I look for Desean Jackson to get back on track with Maclin doubtful to play and the Niners have allowed the second most plays of 40 yards or more. Steve Smith should also jump into relevancy, absorbing a good portion of Maclin's would be targets. The Niners are 3rd in the league against the run, but Vick and McCoy should be able to wiggle their way to adequate totals. Alex Smith will be hard pressed to find open WR's. Frank Gore's availability is in question at this point but Kendall Hunter is likely an upgrade over the sluggish Gore. If Hunter gets the start he stands a good chance at a 100 total yards against the soft Eagle run D. The Niners will need more than just a valiant performance from Hunter to steal this one. Eagles win 24-14


TEN +1.5 @ CLE


Tennessee has the leagues number one Defense along with the most efficient 3rd down offense. The loss of Kenny Britt is huge, but Hasselback has been more than proficient. He will spread the ball around nicely. Chris Johnson is off the a career worst start. He's said to have finally picked up the changes in the offense after missing all of the preseason and to be back in football shape. So far Johnson has been a hesitant runner, looking for the home run. I look for him to turn it around this week providing football fans with his one or two of his Highlight runs. The Browns 26th ranked offense will have trouble getting in rhythm and finding themselves in scoring opportunities. The Titans will key in on stopping the run, making the browns one dimensional. Titans win 20 - 13


BUF -3 @ CIN

The Bills going on the road against a team that is easily looked past after coming off an emotional/triumphant win against the Patriots could equate to a letdown in week 4. I'm going to say otherwise. The Bills offense is just too potent for the Bengals to keep pace with. Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson should again post big numbers. The Bengals should be able to put together some good drives but ultimately fall short. Bills win 27-17

ATL -5 @ SEA

Seattle surprisingly sits as the tenth best defense in totals yards through the first 3 weeks of the season. Their defense should be able to keep this game close throughout. Lynch and the Rushing attack looks destined to once again post pedestrian totals with Tavaris Jackson not having too much more success. Sidney Rice is their lone threat who I look for to once again eclipse the 100 yard mark. Unless the defense can force some Turnovers the Seahawks won't be lighting up the score board. Matt Ryan should have a quality day hooking up with Roddy White and Julio Jones throughout the game. Turner will get his opportunities but will likely have a lackluster game as Seattle is fairly stout against the run (allowing less than 100 yards per game). Atlanta wins 20-13

MIN -1.5 @ KC

Adrian Peterson should be able to lead the Vikings to their first win of the season. The Cheifs have been terrible on defense particularly against the run where they rank 28th against the run. The Vikings defense however is 4th against the run. The Vikings should be able to yet again build a nice half time lead forcing the KC to play catch up in the second half leaving Jared Allen and the Vikings pass rush to do what they do best. Get to the QB. Ground success coupled with the lead should help Percy Harvin's chances at getting open deep downfield for a long score off play action. The teams are both 0-3 but the Vikings have had every chance to be 3-0 in their games and still have actual playmakers on both sides of the ball (Peterson Harvin Allen) where the Cheifs playmakers are on IR. Vikings win 24-13

NYG -2 @ ARI

With Mario Manningham back this week Eli and the Giants have their full arsenal of weapons back. Hakeem Nicks should break out after failing to produce elite totals the last two weeks. Manningham and Cruz should post nice days as well. Bradshaw and Jacobs will put this game on ice as they should have no problem finding room to run against the 27th run defense. The Cardinals will have little room to run whether Beanie Wells plays or not. Kolb will yet again be throwing up prayers to Larry Fitzgerald who should provide 100+ yards and a score, being the lone cardinal with significant success on the day. Giants win 24-17

MIA +7.5 @ SD

With Daniel Thomas Now out for the Dolphins they will be forced to turn to Reggie Bush. The yards Thomas produces on First and Second down will be dearly missed for the Dolphins. They will be forced into a more pass heavy scheme this week where the Chargers rank 9th in defending the pass. Bush will need to come up big on 3rd downs on draws and as a reciever to help extend drives. Henne will lean Heavily on Brandon Marshall in this one. The two have posted nice totals thus far but have been completely out of sync when entering the redzone (connecting on just 1 of 11 passes). Ryan Mathews should once again post strong totals carrying the ground game for the Chargers and Rivers too will post good totals likely leading the Chargers to victory. With Gates looking to be held out again I look for McMichael to step in with a score or possibly even two. In the end Chargers win 28-20


DEN + 12.5 @ GB

Denver should be able to find some scoring opportunities but they just won't be able to keep up with scoring pace of the Packers. Rodgers just has too many weapons to exploit defenses with. Especially against Denvers mediocre cast. Rodgers should eclipse the 300 yard mark hooking up for big plays with his top guns Jennings and Finley. Starks will be able to ice the game away in the second half going over 100 yard total. On the flip side opportunities for Eric Decker and Brandon Lloyd to make plays will be there as teams have been able to get to the Packers secondary thus far this season (31st against the pass).
Packers win 34-20

NE -4.5 @ OAK

There could be a little hangover effect here for the Patriots and the Raiders will be motivated to prove they are legit. McFadden will carry the Raiders with Rookie sensation Denarius Moore playing Robin to his Batman. The Raiders finally have a winning vibe surrounding them. Whispers of Just Win Baby making their rounds. This game is a showcase of perhaps the top two candidates for League MVP as early as it is in McFadden and Brady. McFadden has emerged as the best RB in the NFL this season and will be looking to put the team on his back this week. The deciding factor in this game will be the Defensive line of the Raiders. If they can apply pressure to Brady they will win. If they can't their secondary will be picked apart. I look for another high scoring affair, Patriots 35-28

NYJ +3.5 @ BAL

A matchup against two teams who mirror each other. This will be the most physical game of the week. The Jets have gotten away from what their Identity has been under Rex Ryan. If that continues they will fail to meet expectations. Their O-Line has failed to open up consistent running lanes which is one of the reasons for the increased pass frequency. The Jets will need to establish some semblance of a run game in order to have success. Sanchez will also need to play no mistake football, leaving his defenses in favorable situations and play field position. Ray Rice has the ability to post solid totals against the Jets Defense, but he won't do anything close to what McFadden was able to do a week ago. The Teams are near equals so I will side with the Home team in this one. Ravens 20-17

IND +10 @ TB

The Colts are in complete disarray now. The injuries are piling up and the team was lucky to be in the game last week. Now on the road this week under the command of Curtis Painter I look for the Colts hole to deepen. Joseph Addai will likely be the focal point of the attack for the Colts and he should provide nice totals for them however, Josh Freeman is one of the great young leaders in the NFL. He will lead his team to a win on Monday night, connecting with Mike Williams and company for over 250 yards. The Colts did a great job last week against Rashard Mendenhall but I look for Blount to have a very nice evening on the ground. Bucs win 27-20