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1. Jamaal Charles - One of the most
efficient RBs in NFL history with a coach who finally knows how to unleash him.
The Chiefs over-achieved as a team last year and are due a significant
regression, particularly on the defensive side of the ball. That won't effect
Charles though. No matter what the game situation, the Chiefs offense will run
through Charles. With check down McGee under center he's sure to be force fed
the ball through the air and ground. There's no other weapons on this team
and Charles career ypc is 5.6.
McCoy will be without his top lineman
for the first 4 games due to suspension. DeSean Jackson won't be there to keep
safety's out of the box. The addition of Sproles caps his receiving
production and his recent turf toe, no matter how slight, is nothing to
over look. Charles is in charge.
2. LeSean McCoy - The negatives
mentioned above are more reasons for Charles to be number one than actual
knocks on McCoy. He's an undoubted elite NFL back and fantasy weapon in
the prime of his career on the best running system in Football. There
really isn't anything more to say.
3. Adrian Peterson - AD is out to prove
no one can stop him, not even Father Time. It's hard to believe he's already
29. He's always been a freak and although past his true prime, he's not only
still an elite talent with the best offense he's had since the Brett Favre days,
but now under the guidance of a coordinator who will use him in the pass
game. The two seasons he has had at least 40 catches in have been his greatest
two fantasy seasons in his career. Under Norv Turner, Peterson is once again
set to receive 40 catches. Although I value Lacy and Peterson similarly this
season I side with AD as the superior talent and focal point of an underrated
offense.
4. Eddie Lacy - The Packers have been
looking for a workhorse runner for years and finally have their guy in Lacy.
He's sure to run early and often this season on an elite offense. From weeks
5-17 last year Lacy averaged 21 touches per game. He was without Rodgers
for essentially 8 of those games which may lead to the perception he will be
leaned on less this season. This is incorrect. His workload won’t fall but his
efficiency will rise (he had just 4.1 ypc last season). The Packers are
likely to be playing with leads in many 4th quarters this
season looking to Lacy to secure victories. The Packers are also
without their top two red zone targets from last season after the departure of
James Jones and loss of Jermichael Finley, which should lead to further usage
for Lacy near the goal line. His upside is massive. 1700-1800 total
yards and 15 TDs isn't out of the question this year.
5. Matt Forte - The last of the "elites"
at RB Forte comes in at number 5. Under Mark Trestman Forte had his best season
as a pro totaling 1933 yards from scrimmage 74 catches and 12 TDs. The offense
will once again be one of the league’s best, potentially taking another step
forward in Trestman’s second year. Couple that with his durability (he has only
5 missed games in his 6 year career) and Forte is one of the safest bets in all
of Fantasy.
6. Calvin Johnson - Astoundingly Calvin has averaged over 105 yards a game each of the last 3 seasons. Although I think Dez, Demaryius, Julio and even Nelson could all be the number one fantasy WR this season there is no safer bet at the position than the one they call Megatron.
7. Dez Bryant - For those of you just tuning in to the Football world here's the rundown on Dez.
Offensive guru Scott Linehan is now in control of the Cowboys passing game. For those unfamiliar with Scott Linehan, he called plays for the Lions from 09-13. Those teams were at or near the top of the league lead in pass attempts each of those years.
Linehan has coached Randy Moss, Torrey Holt and Calvin Johnson. Unlike the Cowboys schemes from the past, he doesn't keep his premier weapon locked into one position so that defenses may game plan to take them away. He moves them around and uses them in a variety of ways helping those past WRs reach the pinnacle of the position. Now its Bryants' turn.
Dez is in a contract year. The Cowboys seem set on making him play out this season prior to extension which will only further motivate him to a massive season.
In addition to those little fun facts the Cowboys defense is in line for a horrific season which should lead to numerous shootouts especially in their division. Dez is set for career totals across the board.
8. Demaryius Thomas - Back to back seasons over 1400 yards as the number one option on the most prolific offense of all time.... What's not to like ? Ohh yeah and last years number two WR is now gone leaving behind 136 targets and 11 TDs to be absorbed. Sure, many of those targets will go to Deckers replacement in Sanders, but Thomas is a good bet to add on a portion of those TDs. His ceiling is through the roof especially with Welkers' suspension.
9. Julio Jones - For those who haven't heard the stat Julio was on an absolute torrid pace of 1856 yards through 5 games before re injuring his foot last season. His upside is unquestioned. Health is the lone concern, but he's back to 100%. If you need proof you need only click here to see his ridiculous TD vs the Titans. A healthy Roddy White and Harry Douglass makes this a potent offense that will need to lean on its pass game with deficiencies in the run game and on defense. As the clear cut number one option on a pass first offense with Tony Gonzales' 121 targets up for grabs, Jones has near unlimited potential.
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10. Demarco Murray - With the addition of OG Zack Martin via the draft the Cowboys now have one of the top O-lines in place. The strong play from this unit should help bring efficiency and ball control to the offense, giving them the potential to be down right dominate. The addition of Linehan will also give a huge boost to Murray. Under his guidance Moe Williams caught 65 passes as lead back on the 2003 Vikings. Steven Jackson caught 90 in 2006. Jahvid Best hauled in 58 passes for the 2010 Lions. Joique Bell caught 105 balls over the past two seasons and Reggie Bush had 54 in 14 games last year alongside him. Murray Could eclipse 70 catches with ease. There are those who believe Lance Dunbar will slide into the Bell role for the Cowboys this season. Dunbar is talented so it isn't completely out of the realm of possibility, but unlike Bush, Murray is a true 3 down workhorse. So it's unlikely Dunbar will carve out a significant role without a Murray injury. If health holds Murray will contend for the number one overall fantasy RB crown.
11. Montee Ball - Ball is over the appendectomy and ready to fill the role that Knowshon Moreno parlayed into a top 5 finish at the position last season. As a superior runner to Moreno, the Broncos could lean more on the run this season. Another factor playing in his favor is lack of talent behind him. Ronnie Hillman is purely a change of pace option and CJ Anderson is very inexperienced. Experience is a major factor in having a role in a Manning offense as you have to be able to keep up with him mentally. As long as he stays healthy Ball should have little trouble being the workhorse for the leagues top offense. A situation that will provide a plethora of scoring opportunities.
12. Jordy Nelson - In the 9 games Nelson played with Rodgers last season his 16 game pace was 94 catches 1559 yards and 12 TDs which would have placed him 2nd at the position. Sure Cobb wasn't in many of those games but its very clear Nelson is the man in the Packers pass game. Already with 29 TDs in his last 37 games with Rodgers, Nelson has a pretty good track record for scoring. Now with the Packers minus their top two red zone targets from last season his TD total could creep into the 14-15 range making him a dark horse for the number one overall WR.
13. AJ Green - The switch from Jay Grudens' pass first scheme to Hue Jacksons' run heavy offense in addition to Andy Daltons limitations at QB will hinder Green from keeping pace with the other elite WRs. I've watched his highlights from last season and was disturbed to find only once was Green hit in stride. Time after time he had to wait on a long ball. Turn back to catch a pass behind him on slants and crossing patterns, costing him many opportunities to run ahead into clear areas. Who knows what kind of numbers he could've ended with had he had better QB play. You may be thinking of the numbers both he and Dalton posted last season and question my judgment. To that I will back up my prior statements about Dalton efficiency. He was 5th in interceptions with 20. 16th in completion percentage. 16th in Total QBR and 16th in passer rating. Pretty pedestrian totals for someone in the user friendly Jay Gruden offense. Green made many of his big plays from Dalton heaving up prayers and Green making exceptional plays to come down with the ball. Now in Hue Jacksons' run heavy conservative offense Dalton will have less opportunities to make big plays which could lead to a drop in production for Green.
14. Jimmy Graham - The leagues premier TE and major weekly difference maker due to lack of premium talent at the position should be once again highly coveted. He's one of the safest players in the game and best bets to repeat elite production. The optimism surrounding Gronk and upside of Julius Thomas, Jordan Cameron and Kyle Rudolph knocks Graham down my ranks a bit. Not because I doubt him but rather because I see the difference between him and Gronk to be minimal.
15. Peyton Manning - Coming off the greatest season the league has ever seen at the position a regression is almost a certainty. Who cares ! If he "drops" to 5000 yards and 45 TDs he will still be the number one QB and overall scorer in the fantasy game.
16. Rob Gronkowski - Ok I know he holds a lot of health risk but there is a lot of optimism surrounding his outlook. Even if he's only 50/50 to play week one and misses a couple games this season here is why he's worth it. From 2011-2013 Gronk has 11 games with MULTIPLE TDs and just 12 games without a TD. An astounding figure and a great look at what he's capable of doing when he's on the field. His weekly scoring differentials will make him a fantasy god.
17. Brandon Marshall - His two year average in Chicago is 109 catches 1401 yards and 11.5 TDs. Jeffery is on the rise and will likely siphon some red zone targets, but there's no denying his high floor and consistency. I look for the Bears to take another step forward in year two of Trestman which should add to his yardage total from last season making up for any regression in TDs.
18. Antonio Brown - How many games with less than 5 catches did Brown have last season ? ZERO. Ok, well how about games under 50 yards receiving ? ZERO. Brown is the king of week to week consistency. He's also one of the most dangerous players with the ball in his hands. The departures of Sanders and Cotchery leaves 17 TDs from last season to be replaced. Although the return of Heath Millers' health will make him the primary red zone target, Brown should still see an uptick in red zone looks. Brown will once again be near the top of the reception and yardage totals and a potential uptick in redzone usage makes him a lethal fantasy weapon in every format.
19. Alshon Jeffery - The sophomore sensation tipped the yardage scales with 1526 total yards (105 rushing) last season yet still has room for improvement. Despite his freakish measurables and massive yardage totals, he only splashed pay dirt 7 times. A number that is likely to go up significantly this season.
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20. Doug Martin - The injury to potential RBBC partner Charles Sims gives a massive boost to Martins' outlook. The O-Line looks to be shaky, but the offense is much improved with the additions of Mike Evans, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and Josh McCown. Martin can play all 3 downs and is just 2 years removed from a number 2 finish at the RB position. Add in Login Mankins, a run blocking dynamo and Martin is primed for a massive bounce back year.21. Marshawn Lynch - His slide to 21 in my rankings doesn't mean I "hate" Lynch because I don't. I just don't see much of a difference between him and some of the other backs further down the ranks. Yes, he is the workhorse on a run heavy team, but the roles of Robert Turbin and Christine Michael should grow and he doesn't play on 3rd downs as it is. I also believe Russell Wilson will steal some TDs from Lynch this year. Lynch is also heavily worked and history hasn't been kind to RBs with 3 straight seasons of 250+ carries. Last season there were 3 backs who fell in that category. Stevan Jackson, Ray Rice and Chris Johnson. SJax and Rice certainly didn't lead any teams to championships and Johnson posted a 3.9 ypc. I don't think Lynch will be a bust, but I do think his production will dip.
22. Andre Ellington - His running style is Jamaal Charles-esk and so is his ypc of 5.5 from last season. He's in line for 300 touches this season without a legitimate running mate. Im very anxious to see what he does with that kind of workload as he weaves his way through defenses effortlessly. He's a great receiver and excels in space. The lone knock being his size for it brings about durability questions. Guys like Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles have been able to thrive in the NFL and they have very similar frames and running styles. Yes, those guys are rare breads but I believe Ellington is as well.
23. Drew Brees - All the guy does is throw for 5000 yards. The loss of Sproles and Lance Moore will be supplemented by the arrival of Brandin "Sonic Boom" Cooks. A truly special talent. The Saints defense was much improved last season particularly against the pass where they ranked 2nd. They also finished 4th in sacks and 4th in points allowed. They added Jarius Byrd in the offseason which will only add to their new defensive prowess. Its not out of the realm of possibility the Saints will look to become more like Seattle and utilize their 3 backs heavily. Limiting drop backs from Brees and capping his upside. When you factor in the potential their defense has he may not have to throw for flashy numbers in order for them to win. Still he's Brees. The floor is HIGH.
24. Aaron Rodgers - This offense is ready to push for number one in the league. With Lacy moving the chains on the ground and keeping pass rushers on their heels, Rodgers should be able to throw for 4500+ yards with ease.
25. Zac Stacy - The loss of Bradford shouldn't be too much cause for pause. He was without him for much of last season and still had over 1100 yards in just 12 games. Stacy will be an absolute workhorse for a very run heavy team.
26. Le'Veon Bell - Things look bleak I know, but he's unlikely to be hit with a suspension any time soon and even if he does it will only be a first time offense costing him one game. Blount will factor in and steal some goal line work, but Bell will be the workhorse behind a much improved Steelers line. He is a great receiver and the Steelers have promised to run more no huddle this season which Blount won't be on the field for. If the Steelers defense struggles again this year they will also be needing more passing packages which again will be utilizing Bell for. He's going to have 1000 yards rushing and close to 500 receiving with 6+ TDs.
27. Randall Cobb - Another slice of that sweet Packer pie. Cobb is a dynamic playmaker with 100 catch upside as a moveable chess piece in this elite offense. He lacks elite scoring potential but will make up for lack of TDs with huge yardage totals and is in a contract season.
28. Julius Thomas - Although greatly separated from the top two TEs I still give Thomas an elite label at the position. The absence of Decker gives him 15 TD potential (he had 12 in 14 games last season). With serious questions marks surrounding Welkers health in addition to his 4 game suspension, Thomas could also enjoy a nice uptick in targets as well giving him potential for a truly special season at the position.
29. Arian Foster - A player coming off back surgery, who battled a hamstring injury throughout camp is not someone I look to build my team around. His contemplation of retirement this offseason makes me really question his passion for the game this season. He certainly has a chance to be very productive if his health holds, but with so many red flags surrounding Foster, he's someone I won't be having on any of my teams.
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30. Shane Vereen - He caught 47 passes in just 8 games last season. With or without Gronk in the line up Vereen will be the catalyst for the Patriots offense. He's a mismatch everywhere he lines up (i.e. game vs Panthers). He will lead the backfield in snaps. 160-180 carries with 80-90 catches is a real possibility.
31. Ben Tate - The lone bright spot for the Browns this preseason. Tate is a natural fit for the zone blocking scheme. Even if the Browns don't find continuity on offense Tate should have little trouble settling into a grove. HC Mike Pettine has already anointed Tate with the every down role, giving him added value especially in PPR. If the Browns do find a spark on offense especially if it comes from Manziel, Tate could have a breakout similar to what Alfred Morris had his rookie season. RB1 is a real possibility if he stays healthy.
32. Toby Gerhart - One of the rare 3 down workhorses in the league this year. Gerhart, a severely underrated athlete, will be run into the ground this season. He's a near lock for 300 touches with lack of competition and is a dark horse to lead the league in carries. Although almost certain to come down it is worth noting that his career ypc is 4.7. Even if he averages just 4 yards a carry he will eclipse 1000 rushing with 300+ receiving. If Bortles makes the offense serviceable it will only better his opportunity to thrive.
33. Rashad Jennings - Laughably underrated. He's not your typical old veteran stop gap. Jennings has real talent. He always makes the first man miss. He has excellent hands and he has enough speed to take it the distance. Andre Williams will get work around the goal line, but he offers zero in the passing game. Jennings will be a total yardage machine despite how horrid the Giants offense could potentially be. He's in great shape and as hungry as any back in the league to make the most of his starting opportunity.
34. Gio Bernard - Incredibly inefficient. 4.1 ypc last year and just 2.45 ypc this preseason. Sure, he's a very shifty back who's great in space and as a receiver but he's not a workhorse. Sooner or later the Bengals will realize the need to even out the workload of Jeremy Hill and Bernard.
35. Andre Johnson - He has over 3000 yards the last two seasons. He may be past his prime, but he's incredibly productive and mightily overlooked. His yardage total should once again be high as the teams top WR especially if Foster goes down and his TDs could rise back to the 7-8 range under new head coach Bill O'Brian.
36. CJ Spiller - Ahh CJ Spiller.
First he has owners bragging to their friends about their future fantasy
plunders. Then he’s causing owners early baldness and weekly nightmares because
of his playing time blunders. What do we make of Mr. CJ Spiller? Will he lose
3rd down snaps to Fred Jackson limiting his receiving totals? Yes. Will he cede
goal line work to Jackson as well capping his scoring upside? Yes again. So why
should we invest in Spiller?
For starters he's truly an elite runner
who still eclipsed 1100 total yards and averaged 4.6 ypc with four 100 yard
rushing games last season, playing essentially on one leg. A performance
more deserving of a medal than verbal abuse. Doug Marrone is the most run
heavy coach in football and the addition of Sammy Watkins should help alleviate
a little defensive pressure. Fred Jackson is over 33 years old and while the
case can be made that a Jackson injury would only bring the name Bryce Brown into
the Spiller house of horrors, that is not necessarily the case. Spiller would
assume the 3rd down role while also seeing an uptick in red zone usage which
would be all he needs to produce elite weekly totals. Even without a Jackson
injury Spiller’s top 5 skill set and other worldly explosion could run him
right through all these blockades and right back into fantasy owners hearts.
37. Ryan Mathews - Despite his fragile
frame, his history of injuries, and his team signing Donald Brown and extending
Woodhead’s contract, its hard to ignore the value of a 26 year old
coming off a career season in rushing yards (1255). He also registered the
second most fantasy points per snap last year behind only Jamaal Charles.
Mathews also received at least 26 touches in each of the last 4 games in the
2013 season totaling over 100 yards in each with 3 TD splashes, perhaps giving
a preview of a true workhorse in the making.
38. Reggie Bush - Bush enjoyed a career
year of over 1500 total yards in his first season as a Lion and there’s little
reason to doubt he will duplicate that in year two, despite Joique Bell’s
rising role. Under new OC Joe Lombardi 75+ catches is on the horizon. Bush has
become a very efficient player (he averaged 5.5 yards per touch last
year) and is just as explosive as ever, as shown by his 86-yard TD scamper
in his last preseason game.
39. Alfred Morris - The Redskins
offense looks abysmal in preseason action. Yes, its only preseason but if that
is any preview of what the regular season has in store there is sure to be
headaches. Morris is a gifted runner but lacks receiving ability. That will
limit his snaps in Jay Gruden’s pass first scheme. The offense has a lot of
potential with RGIII, Garcon, DJax and Jordan Reed. If they get it together he
will be a tremendous value as an efficient TD scorer, but with this offense’s
flop potential he gets bumped down the ranks for now.
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40. Vincent Jackson - VJax has back-to-back
seasons over 1200 yards in Tampa and this looks to be the best offense yet with
Doug Martin healthy and Josh McCown tossing him passes. The addition of Mike
Evans shouldn't be seen as a negative as it makes the offense more potent and
helps keep defensive pressure off Jackson. McCown knows how to utilize big
targets. In his 6 starts last season McCown averaged 291 yards with 12 TDs.
Jackson should eclipse last years totals of 1224 and 7 with McCown giving him plenty
of opportunities to make big plays, especially in "50/50" ball
situations where Jackson’s skills can thrive.
41. Cordarrelle Patterson - Everyone's
WR darling in drafts this year should prove his worth in the pass heavy
vertical style of Norv Turner. He won't be Josh Gordon but he is playing his
position in the same offense that saw Gordon average over 100 yards a game last
season. Even with significant regression of those numbers there's still plenty
to be excited about. Patterson is absolutely hellacious with the ball in
his hands. He can turn any route into a house call. Matt Cassell appears to be
a natural for Turner’s offense and should provide more than enough under center
competency to launch Patterson into the high end WR 2 stratosphere.
42. Joique Bell - Underwhelming as a runner but exceptional in the pass game and serviceable in short yardage and goal line situations. Back to back seasons with over 50 receptions and now the offense is under the controls of Joe Lombardi who coached TWO RBs to over 70 catches last season in Sproles and Thomas. Bell may not be ripe with talent but his situation is one of the best among RBs this season. He will be fed 180-200 carries and catch another 50+ passes playing the Pierre Thomas/Mark Ingrim role to the Sproles/Bush role of Bush himself in a top ten offense.
43. Torrey Smith - Playing the same target monster "X" position Garcon and Andre Johnson played last season. Garcon led the league in targets playing that role and Andre is always among the league leaders in that category. His route tree has expanded. Smith is primed to build off last seasons career best 1128 yards (only 65 receptions) with his scoring total rising back to the 7-9 range.
44. Emmanuel Sanders - Sanders brings yet another element to the most prolific offense of all time. An explosive vertical threat who will never have coverage rolled to his side of the field playing alongside Julius and Demaryius. Manning doesn't zone in on any one man. He looks for mismatches and Sanders will find himself in plenty which was put on display against Houston when he posted 128 yards and 2 scores in one half of play. Welker is seemingly one concussion away from retirement and set to miss the first 4 games due to suspension providing further usage for Sanders. He's oozing with upside.
45. Roddy White - As stated above with
Julio Jones, the Falcons have 120 targets left behind by Tony Gonzales. Julio
and Roddy will be the main beneficiaries. His abysmal 2013 was due in
large part to injuries. As he regained health, he returned to form down the
stretch, posting 8.6 catches for 100.6 yards per game from weeks 13-17.
With the Falcons defense still set to be in the bottom half of the league,
White makes for a strong WR2 this year.
46. Keenan Allen - Despite his fantastic
rookie campaign, I don't expect Allen to be such a sensation in year two.
He doesn't do anything special at the position, particularly speed (he ran just
a 4.7 at his combine). Even with what is looked at as a major breakout
season, he still had 6 games with less than 50 yards receiving. Now with a
whole year of tape on him for defensive coordinators to utilize in game
planning, I see Allen as more of a disappointment.
47. Victor Cruz - Set to play the
moveable chess piece slot position in Ben McAdoos offense, Cruz will be heavily
targeted. He's not only a great possession WR, he's dynamic with the ball
in his hands. He has 100 catch upside in this system, but due to the Giants
significant struggles this preseason expectations must be tempered for
now.
48. Michael Floyd - Floyd is entering
his 3rd season and already coming off a breakout 1,000 yard campaign. Bruce
Arians loves to throw the ball and loves to throw the ball deep. With a solid
line in place, the emergence of John Brown, and the ever versatile Andre
Ellington in the backfield, this offense could very well play fast. I don't
expect Floyd to be the first read, but I do expect him to build off last year’s
numbers as the main vertical threat in an emerging offense that could be
surprisingly dynamic if Carson Palmer can prove to be above average.
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50. Larry Fitzgerald - At 31, his skills have started to diminish. He's lost a step which played a major role in him failing to eclipse the 1000 yard mark last season despite 82 receptions. He's now running mostly short and underneath patterns with Floyd working the downfield routes. Still their best red zone option however, Fitzgerald should be able to match last seasons stat line of 954 10.51. Matt Stafford - His massive totals the last 3 seasons have come hand in hand with massive volume. The Lions still look to be pass heavy under the guidance of new OC Joe Lombardi, but now with Golden Tate (Staffords best WR opposite Calvin ever) and TE Eric Ebron (10th overall pick in this years draft) added to the mix his efficiency should spike. Matt Stafford as an efficient passer is a very scary thought for defensive coordinators. He has 5000 yard 40 TD upside.
52. Stevan Ridley - The name Stevan Ridley is usually followed by "Dog House". He has fumbling issues. He's also by far the best between the tackles runner on the team by a mile and the best bet for goal line work in a high end offense. Remember just 2 years ago he was a top ten back thanks to a 1263 yard 12 TD season on the ground. Vereen will lead the team in snaps, but Ridley will be heavily used as well. 1000 yards and double digit TDs is very likely with upside for more if he can just hang on to the ball.
53. Michael Crabtree - Looking back at Crabtree in 2012 he was incredibly lethal after the catch looking every bit the highly touted WR coming out of Texas Tech. His chemistry with Kaepernick was by far the best on the team which gave his 2013 outlook a lot of hype. That is until he tore his Achilles. After an essentially lost 2013, Crabtree is once again healthy and ready to rock. The Niners defense won't be the stalwarts of seasons past, which should lead to more dependence on the pass game. Crabtree is only 26. He has high end WR2 upside.
54. Pierre Garcon - Garcon led the league in targets last season. With DeSean Jackson added and Jordan Reed healthy, he will easily lose 50+ targets. Do not expect a repeat of last years number. You can however, expect an uptick in efficiency with Jackson clearing out space and attracting attention Garcon should rise from the 11.9 ypr back to around 14. That will keep his value from completely plummeting and still sit him firmly in the WR2 category.
55. Percy Harvin - Seattle will do everything in their power to keep Harvin fresh for another SB run. They don't need him to make the playoffs. They are the most conservative team in football when it comes to rushing attempts and that's not going to change much this season. Harvin is one of the most talented WRs with the ball in his hands and should prove to be incredibly efficient with the targets he's given. That however, will likely make him a better value to Seattle than to your fantasy team.
56. Ray Rice - Rice looks much quicker thanks to his weight loss this offseason. The quickness should help him bounce back nicely after a horrid, injury riddled 2013. Sitting out the first two games could actually work in his favor by having him a little more on the fresh side down the stretch. Bernard Pierce is a very capable back, but he is not by any means a superior runner to Rice (Pierce had just a 2.9 ypc last season). He has also suffered a concussion this preseason which could cause him to miss significant time down the road if he receives another. Rice can play all 3 downs and excels in the pass game. Still just 27 and with new OC Kubiaks system in place, Rice could reemerge as one of the games best all purpose backs.
57. Kyle Rudolph - Looking for this years Jordan Cameron ? Look no further than Kyle Rudolph. In the same system Cameron enjoyed his breakout campaign, Rudolph will be a main focal point in Norv Turners offense. The Vikings paid him 36.5 million this offseason and he's already proving his worth. After dropping 15 lbs this offseason to ready himself for a bigger receiving role, Rudolph has added more explosiveness to his game as showcased on his 51 yard TD verse the Cardinals this preseason. He is by far their best red zone option after Adrian Peterson and is just two years removed from a 9 TD campaign. All signs point to a big time breakout for Rudolph.
58. Jordan Cameron - I must admit Cameron could very easily finish much higher than this ranking expectation. I just don't have a lot of hope for the Browns passing game providing much of anything. Yes, He should be the focal point of the pass game but unless the play gets at least serviceable under center, I feel a lot of head aches are in store.
59. DeSean Jackson - Most likely Jackson will be a boom or bust play each week this season. Prior to last years breakout he never had more than 63 catches. Never eclipsed the 1200 yard mark and only had more than 6 TDs in a season once. Enter Chip Kelly, add in the injury to Jeremy Maclin and his numbers shot through the roof. Now without Kelly and playing opposite of last years target leader he could easily fall back on the previous statistical path.
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60. Andrew Luck - Boring conservative OC Pep Hamilton isn't getting the most out of the Colts offense. Instead of attempting to find a rhythm for Trent Richardson and the run game, he needs to do what his offense is best manned to do. Throw the ball. It appears the Colts have at least started to realize this as they brought in Rob Chudzinski to help spice up the offensive philosophy. With Reggie Wayne, Hakeem Nicks, T.Y. Hilton, Da'Rick Rodgers and two plus pass catching TEs, the personnel reads spread. With a very fantasy favorable schedule, the plethora of weapons at his disposal and the likelihood of an opened up offense, Luck is dripping with Aaron Rodgers upside.
61. Golden Tate - A unique athlete with incredible acceleration is Tate who is now in the best spot for production of his career. Playing Robin to Calvin Johnsons Batman should provide regular mismatches for Tate to exploit. Career totals across the board are in store for Tate in this pass happy offense.
62. Mike Wallace - Wallace was poorly utilized last season, being stuck on one side of the field for the defense to account for. Now, under the guidance of new OC Bill Lazor, Wallace could enjoy a DeSean Jackson like 2013 season. Lazor promises to move Wallace around to prevent defenses from keying in on him and peppering him with targets as the best vertical weapon on the team. The chemistry with Ryan Tannehill is still in question, but the upside is here.
63. Terrance Williams - Could be mightily inconsistent, but as the number 2 WR on a team ripe with weekly shootout potential, Williams should provide plenty of big games. The coaches have praised him all offseason and as a 6'2" nimble athlete opposite Dez Bryant, he should find himself in consistent mismatches.
64. Steven Jackson - Not a "sexy" player by any means, but Jackson could very well prove to be a vital difference making piece on teams this season if health holds. Yes, he carries all the red flags in the world, but he is set to play week 1 and will be the lead back for a likely top 10 offense. Many scoring opportunities will be provided and with Julio Jones and Roddy White healthy, he could see a limited number of stacked boxes. Jackson could easily be an RB3/Flex who produces like a mid-level RB2
65. Brandin Cooks - First, wins the Biletnikoff award as the nations top collegiate WR. Then, posts the top 40 and shuttle times for WRs at the combine. Next, the Saints trade up to select him 20th overall in the draft. Followed by non-stop rave reports all offseason and preseason. Wait, who is he playing for again ? The Saints. Oh, who is their QB ? Drew Brees. Yeah..... Cooks is ready to hit the ground running filling the Darren Sproles and Lance Moore roles.
66. Bishop Sankey - He's still listed as the number 2 back, but the Titans didn't select Sankey as the first RB in this years draft to sit the bench behind an underwhelming journeyman in Shonn Greene. He's going to play frequently and will be running behind one of the best lines in football. Sankey should have his role increased more and more as the season progresses. He should eventually become an every week RB2.
67. Reggie Wayne - By all accounts he is fully recovered from his ACL injury and ready to once again be Andrew Lucks top target. Even at 35 Wayne can still run routes with the best of them and should prove to be a consistent back end WR2.
68. Mark Ingram - Could this finally be the year Ingrim proves to be who the Saints traded up in the first round for ? I think so. The light finally came on for him as he ran with tenacity, averaging 4.9 ypc. A full yard higher than each of the previous two seasons. He has built on that momentum this preseason averaging 7.05 ypc. Looking explosive. The Saints know if they want to win another SB they have to get past Seattle and San Francisco. Playing their usual finesse style won't cut it. That's why have quietly reshaped their team this offseason. They traded away Sproles and invested mightily in Jarius Byrd at safety. The Saints defense was 2nd against the pass last year, 4th in sacks and 4th in points allowed. Now they just need to kick start a power run game to control the clock. Ingram will be used to do just that.
69. Justin Hunter - He's still listed as the number 3 WR so don't expect box scores to be blown up early on, but he has freakish talent waiting to be unleashed. He's uncoverable in the red zone. If the stars align just right he could end up being this years Alshon Jeffery.
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70. Lamar Miller - Knowshon Moreno is here to stay regardless of how well Miller performs this season. Miller is going to be in a major committee with Moreno, severely capping his upside.
71. Knowshon Moreno - Will be in a near even split with Miller and play 3rd downs and goal line situations. Think Fred Jackson.
72. Fred Jackson - He's ancient, but has a great role locked down. He will fall short of last years numbers, but he remains an RB2/Flex.
73. Marques Colston - Colston comes up on a lot of "undervalued" lists. I disagree with that term. Over the last two seasons he has 17 games UNDER 70 yards. Last season he had 5 games where he scored LESS than 5 points and 8 games scoring 6 points or less. I'm not a fan of starting a guy you are clueless as to what he will produce. With so much dud week potential and no way of knowing I'd rather someone else deal with it.
74. Kelvin Benjamin - Benjamin has looked stellar thus far. If he and Cam stay on the same page their is no reason Benjamin can't produce a 900+ yard total with double digit scores. He will be dynamite in the red zone. Could easily end up being a nice WR2 as a rookie.
75. Jordan Reed - I don't doubt the talent, but with the concussions he has piled up in his young career he does carry a major health risk. If his health holds he will be a tremendous value running free underneath in mismatches while Jackson and Garcon warrant the defensive attention.
76. Matt Ryan - Ryan looks to me as the safest bet out of this tier. He has back to back seasons over 4500 yards and his defense will be much worse than Cams, Bradys, and Cutlers. Julio Jones looks primed to chase records and Roddy White is healthy and motivated. I know we have all heard it before, but Devin Hester actually looks like he will be a significant offensive contributor for the Falcons as well. He's not on the fantasy radar, but for Matt Ryans' value he does give a slight boost.
77. Cam Newton - His rib and ankle injuries are cause for concern as are the offensive line woes. He's not without flaws but has arguably the best weapons of his career and never finished outside the top 5 at the position.
78. Jay Cutler - Cutler is behind the best line since he arrived in Chicago. He has the best supporting cast of his career and now in year two of Mark Trestmans QB friendly offense he is ready to explode. 4500 yards and 35 TDs is a real possibility with the weapons he has.
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79. Tom Brady - Brady was the number 4 QB last year while Gronk was in the line up. Now that he's back I see no reason why Brady can't resurface as a top 5 QB. The weapons are in place and if Vereen does in fact dominate the backfield snaps this offense will be an absolute juggernaut.
80. Colin Kaepernick - Kaepernick is all world talent. The team added Stevie Johnson and Brandon Lloyd in the offseason while drafting Bruce Ellington. He also gets his favorite target Michael Crabtree back healthy and ready to go. This receiving group is deep and talented. The Niners defense is also a good bet to struggle with the losses to key personnel. He didn't look sharp this preseason, but with his talent and weapons around him he is going to be a major fantasy contributor.
81. Nick Foles - It is becoming more apparent to me that Foles actually can replicate last years production. Will he throw more picks ? Of course, but he isn't going to suddenly contend with Eli for the league lead in that category. Chip Kelly is an offensive master mind. Trust in Chip Kelly. Foles will once again pay your fantasy tolls.
82. Tony Romo - Injury risk, but with the worst defense in the league and Scott Linehan dialing up plays the upside is great.
83. Robert Griffin III - Washington has looked absolutely awful. RGIII looks as if he has forgotten how to play football. I don't have much confidence in him especially since he doesn't have a very high floor, but he's healthy and still carries tremendous upside if the light ever comes back on.
84. Russell Wilson - Wilson looks as sharp as ever. He will still lack the volume to hang with the elites at the position, but he has a great weekly floor thanks to his athleticism. He's an ideal QB pair for Cutler, Cam and Romo.
85. Maurice Jones-Drew - MJD looked vintage in his TD scamper vs the Packers this preseason. As long as he stays healthy he will be a weekly RB3/Flex.
86. Rueban Randle - Randle has major breakout potential with an every down role in Ben McAdoos' offense. He is great after the catch and should serve the teams vertical threat in addition to number one red zone target.
87. Eric Decker - The case of going from Peyton Manning to Geno Smith completely killing his value is a little over blown. Decker is a TD scorer. Even when Tebow was under center, Decker still caught 8 TDs. I think Geno will be more than serviceable as a passer, giving Decker a lot of value. He will be a weekly WR2/3.
88. Bernard Pierce - Will be an RB2 the first two weeks and possibly remain in the Flex discussion if he performs well. He isn't going to hold on to the job over Rice however so don't invest much in him. Also carries concussion concerns.
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89. Jeremy Hill - As mentioned above, Bernard is a very inefficient runner. Jeremy Hill averaged 6.9 ypc in the SEC last year and 4.6 ypc this preseason. In the preseason finale he proved his every down work horse ability by gaining 90 yards on 20 carries and catching all 6 of his targets for another 70 yards. Green-Ellis was cut shortly after as a result of the confidence the team has in the 55th overall pick in the draft. Hue Jackson wants a power running game. Hill will provide just that. Don't be shocked if he passes Bernard at some point this season as the featured back.
90. T.Y. Hilton - Hilton had 9 games where he scored LESS than 5 points last year and his targets will only go down this year with Hakeem Nicks in the mix and Dwayne Allen healthy. He's plenty talented, but nothing more than a boom or bust WR3.
91. Julian Edelman - So many mouths to feed in NE if health holds all around, but Edelman has earned his fair share of targets. He should be able to haul in around 80 passes this season and if the injury bug once again hits the Patriots he could be huge.
92. Carlos Hyde - Hyde has exceeded expectations thus far, earning what I believe to be a significant role in the offense. He's done well in pass protection too which could result in a 3rd down role in addition to the change of pace role. Hyde is an incredibly talented runner and must own for Gore owners as I believe he would have more value as the starter than Gore himself. Definite RB1 if Gore collapses.
93. Wes Welker - The suspension could actually end up working in his favor as it will give him more time to recover from his concussion and possibly stay healthy the remainder of the season. I'm not in any way opposed to buying low on him right now.
94. Chris Johnson - An inefficient 28 year old RB, with severe wear, switching from one of the best lines to one of the worst isn't a ripe situation. Chris Johnson has had at least 293 touches in all 6 of his NFL seasons. His effort is always in question and now he has the insatiably hungry Chris Ivory as a running mate. Ivory is healthy and could easily win lead back duties for the Jets, relegating Johnson to change of pace duties. For those thinking he will be big in the pass game, know that Chris Johnson can't pass protect. He lost the 3rd down job to Javon Ringer once upon a time. He struggles with drops as well. Best case scenario for him is Bilal Powell plays 3rd downs, Ivory short yardage and goal line, leaving the between the 20's role for him. Not much appeal. If you have him, hope he shows well early and then trade him for whatever you can.
95. Mike Evans - Playing opposite Vincent Jackson will provide a lot of opportunities for Evans to excel. He should have no problem beating single coverage especially in the red zone. Josh McCown doesn't mind throwing "50/50" balls, giving his WRs chances to make plays. Evans could wind up being a strong WR3 play.
96. Pierre Thomas - With Sproles gone Thomas will remain heavily used in the pass game. He's an RB3/Flex
97. Dennis Pitta - For those of you who don't know the Ravens new OC Gary Kubiak, he has a strange TE fetish. He loves getting the ball in the TEs hands especially in the red zone. Flacco has no problem feeding Pitta targets. He once threw him the ball 18 times in a single game. Pitta will be a relatively safe weekly play this year.
98. Jason Witten - Witten plays on a team with weekly shootout potential. Witten however provides very little after the catch and is now 32. 32 historically is the age TEs begin to take nose dives in production. Although the situation is good I remain skeptical that he can be anymore than a back end starter.
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99. Kendall Wright - He's a 24 year old 3rd year WR coming off a 94 catch 1079 yard season. Their is question on whether Locker will be able to get him the ball accurately enough to match those totals as well as the concern of Justin Hunters emergence. I don't see these as being significant road blocks to his value. Hunter plays an entirely different role and Wright runs many high percentage routes. He can match last years totals just don't expect many TDs.100. Trent Richardson - If he gets it together or simply just gets what's blocked he will be a strong RB3. His preseason play didn't really inspire much confidence. He was truly worthless last year and because of that I don't want any share of Richardson.
101. Chris Ivory - He is 100% the best runner on the team. Only a matter of time before Rex Ryan realizes it. Ivory runs like he's mad at the ground. He averaged the most yards after contact per carry last season (Chris Johnson finished 30th out of 32 who qualified). He's truly tenacious as a ball carrier. If his health holds he will receive significant carries coupled with goal line work. His style will win the hearts of Jet fans, coaches and fantasy owners.
102. Sammy Watkins - Can his talent over come woeful QB play? I'm not going to bet against him being serviceable. Bills should go to great lengths to get the ball in his hands.
103. Danny Woodhead - Should once again be a nice RB4 and bye week plug in with weekly flex consideration.
104. Jonathan Stewart - Looks back to his old self. Could easily take over lead back and goal line duties as by far the best runner on the team. If he does, he's a weekly RB2.
105. Dwayne Bowe - A nice WR4. Bowe is a good bye week plug in.
106. DeAndre Hopkins - Received rave reviews from coaches and beat writers all offseason. Should be a solid WR3 for much of the season.
107. Hakeem Nicks - Looked like the fluid athlete of old in the preseason. A rejuvenated Nicks catching passes from Luck has a lot of WR3 appeal.
108. Ben Roethlisburger - Team promises to implement more no huddle. Defense looks to struggle. Annually underrated, Ben has top 8 upside.
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109. Phillip Rivers - Same weapons and scheme of last season. Excellent QBBC partner for match ups.
110. Heath Miller - Two years removed from an 800 8 campaign. Could easily recapture those numbers finally fully healthy again. The Steelers lost their main red zone target in Cotchery. Miller should lead the team in receiving TDs.
111. Zach Ertz - Should be main red zone offense on an offense that will be there often.
112. Lance Dunbar - Full extent of his role is still unknown, but talent and system are ripe. Murray doesn't exactly carry an "unbreakable" label either.
113. Terrance West - West had a horrendous showing in the preseason, allowing UDFA Isiah Crowell to make the team. West has loads of talent and is the handcuff to Ben Tate, but until he adjusts to the NFL he isn't going to see the field much.
114. Devonta Freeman - Incredibly explosive back, but would still be in a committee if Jackson goes down.
115. Shonn Greene - Made it out of preseason remaining the starter. Underwhelming yes, but will at least have early season flex value.
116. Deangelo Williams - Very little appeal here. Strictly 2 down back. Now at age 31 with a healthy Jonathan Stewart.
117. Greg Olsen - Could have a career year if Cams' health holds.
118. Vernon Davis - Upside severely capped with Crabtree healthy.
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119. Ladarius Green - Lost a lot of appeal with Gates still starting but a good stash and should over take Gates at some point.
120. Travis Kelce - Truly looks like Gronkowski on the field. KC lacks weapons and doesn't have any mismatches other than Kelce himself. He's behind Anthony Fasano, but Andy Reid is no fool. Kelce will be heavily involved particularly in the red zone.
121. Ahmad Bradshaw - Bradshaw has a true 3 down skill set. If Richardson falters again, Bradshaw could easily take over lead back duties in a rising offense.
122. Cecil Shorts - Bortles will be under center sooner rather than later and when he does Shorts value will spike.
123. Anquan Boldin - Niners offense will be more aggressive. Boldin will have some WR3 value.
124. Aaron Dobson - Finally healthy, Dobson immediately over takes Kenbrell Thompkins. Dobson is extremely talented. If he can just get on the same page with Brady he will be a high upside WR3.
125. Cody Latimer - Great roster stash before Welker suspension, now has the opportunity to earn significant snaps in his absence. He's an athletic monster that can excel in both vertical routes and red zone jump balls.
126. James Starks - I believe he will be used more than just a mere back up. The Packers SB hopes ride largely on Eddie Lacy and they will want to keep him fresh. Starks could have flex value as the garbage time and change of pace back in some weeks. Must own if you have Lacy.
127. Markus Wheaton - A better route runner and more explosive athlete than Emmanuel Sanders. Has plenty of upside with an every down role locked up.
128. Jordan Mathews - Eagles offense is one to invest in. Maclins' knee looks sketchy and Matthews is the most gifted WR on the roster.
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129. Jarret Boykin - Plenty to go around in the Packers offense. His 2013 tape is impressive and now is firmly placed into the James Jones role. Cobb isn't exactly injury proof either.
130. Kenny Britt - Shaun Hill will be serviceable. Britt will have every opportunity to be a reliable WR3.
131. Benny Cunningham - Run heavy team. Zac Stacy handcuff and the Rams really like him.
132. Knile Davis - RB1 upside if Charles goes down.
133. Brian Quick - Definite 3rd year breakout appeal even without Bradford. Physically gifted and getting rave reviews all offseason.
134. Seattle Defense - Far and away the best bet for fantasy defenses. Rare weekly floor at the position and dynamite at home.
135. LeGarrette Blount - Could see 8-10 carries a game with some goal line work without any injury to Bell.
136. James Jones - Arrow pointing up with Derek Carr starting.
137. John Brown - Will play the T.Y. Hilton role in Bruce Arians offense. Could become a nice WR3 if the offense truly opens up.
138. James White - Strictly a handcuff to Vereen or Ridley, but not unthinkable that either Vereen gets hurt or Ridley fumbles his role away.
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139. Steve Smith - Looked good in the preseason. Still plenty left in the tank and playing with a chip on his shoulder once again.
140. Danny Amendola - Simply a hail marry fliar at this point behind Edelman.
141. Jerricho Cotchery - Sneaky bet for 70+ catches if Benjamin goes through rookie growing pains. Coming off a 10 TD season will be a nice red zone target as well.
142. Darren Sproles - Shouldn't receive many touches, but under Chip Kelly will have value.
143. Roy Helu - Could have stand alone value in PPR. Would become borderline RB1 with a Morris injury.
144. Greg Jennings - With Nor Turner calling the shots, Jennings could eclipse 900 yards and 5-7 TDs.
145. Darren McFadden - Carr could breath some life into the Raiders offense this season. McFadden might just become a weekly flex play.
146. Robert Turbin - Sadly the better handcuff for Lynch.
147. Christine Michael - Despite the talent, won't shake Robert Turbin from the picture under any scenario.
148. Bryce Brown - Will be border line RB2 if Jackson or Spiller goes down.
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149. Odell Beckham Jr - Outlook becoming more bleak by the day, but a legit playmaker when healthy.
150. Mohamed Sanu - As long as Marvin Jones is out Sanu will have WR4 value
151. Riley Cooper - With DeSean Jackson gone Cooper will serve as teams big play threat.
152. Khiry Robinson - Will need an injury to either Pierre Thomas or Mark Ingrim to have any real fantasy value.
153. Martellus Bennett - So many mouths to feed in the Bears offense. Bennett offers very little upside.
154. Ryan Tannehill - Has a little 2013 Nick Foles vibe under new OC Bill Lazor. Athletic enough to approach 350 rushing yards in the system will make Tannehill a sneaky serviceable fantasy plug in.
155. Jake Locker - Very low floor, but the upside is real with his athleticism and guided by Ken Whisenhunt.
156. Andy Dalton - Top 5 QB last year won't fall completely off a statistical cliff in Hue Jacksons run first offense.
157. Carson Palmer - Looked completely out of sync in the preseason, but with the weapons in place and Bruce Arians system he retains mid QB2 value.
158. Josh McCown - Bucs offense is on the rise. McCown has 4000 yard 25 TD upside
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159. Johnny Manziel - Still an intriguing stash in deeper leagues or 2 QB leagues with the weekly upside he brings as a runner and improvisational player. Even Terrelle Pryor was a top 16 QB.
160. Andrew Hawkins - Someone other than Jordan Cameron has to catch passes this season for the Browns. Hawkins has the most upside particularly in PPR formats.
161. Kenny Stills - A boom or bust WR3 you can utilize in deeper leagues or leagues with deep benches and plug in when you need a hail marry.
162. Ronnie Hillman - Any back with ties to Peyton Manning is worthy of rostering. Strictly a change of pace back even if Ball were to go down, but would have significant PPR value with Ball down.
163. CJ Anderson - Would be the likely lead back if Ball goes down. Better handcuff than Hillman in standard leagues.
164. Charles Clay - Mid level TE2 coming off a career year. Could do a lot worse for a TE committee partner.
165. Bobby Rainy - Simply a Doug Martin handcuff, but is a talented runner.
166. Alfred Blue - Superior runner to Grimes. Would have the most upside if Foster goes down.
167. Harry Douglas - Atlanta could be in a lot of shootouts this season giving Douglas WR3 appeal.
168. Coby Fleener - Despite numerous mouths to feed he is still one of Lucks favorite targets.
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169. Dwayne Allen - Dark horse to lead the Colts in TDs.
170. Denarius Moore - Coaching proclamations of him "taking the next step" coupled with cannon arm Derek Carr under center is all the reason needed to stash Moore away.
171. Jonathon Grimes - The direct back up to Foster, but underwhelming as a runner.
172. Donald Brown - Would see the biggest jump in value if Mathews gets injured. He's the actual handcuff for Mathews owners as Woodhead would keep the same change of pace and 3rd down role.
173. Kenbrell Thompkins - If injuries take place amongst Patriot WRs, Thompkins will once again be fantasy relevant.
174. Andre Caldwell - Short on talent, but with Welker out for 4 games he will get on the field.
175. Ka'Deem Carey - Carey was recently promoted to the number 2 job behind Matt Forte which puts him back on the fantasy radar.
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