Week 3 Picks: Spread Formation

The house always wins (with time). This is the law of Las Vegas. The same is true for Vegas oddsmakers that set the point spreads on each NFL game. The more a season progresses, the better they get at setting lines with more data and insight available to them. Early on in the season, we always see more upsets than expected because we are all still learning the NFL landscape together, one week at a time.

Some interesting stats after the first two weeks of play:

• Vegas Favorites have a record of 17-15, not calculating the spread
• Vegas Favorite have a record of 11-20-1, with the spread factored in
• The spread has changed the winning pick in 6 games, 18.75%
• 17 games (53%) have been won by 10 points or more, virtually making the spread irrelevant in those games
• 9 games (28%) have been won by 16 points or more
• 7 games (21.8%) have been won by 3 points or less

My main takeaway from these stats is don’t worry about the spread this early in the season. Simply pick who you think will win the game. Look for underdogs, especially if they are playing at home. Underdogs are winning close to 50% of the games, without even adding the point spread. Find an underdog with +3.5 or more at home and you have a good shot at winning it.

Again, this advice only goes for week 3 and 4 and then we will have to adjust our strategy. But here are my picks, full of underdogs for week 3. Spreads are according the Vegas Consensus (most frequent betting line across all Vegas and Online sportsbooks).

Atlanta Falcons (-6) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ATL -6.5

Buffalo Bills (-2.5) vs. San Diego Chargers – BUF -2.5

Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ St. Louis Rams – STL +1

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) vs. Washington Redskins – PHI -6.5

Houston Texans (-2) vs. @ N.Y. Giants – NYG +2

New Orleans Saints (-10) vs. Minnesota Vikings – NO -10

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) vs. Tennessee Titans – TEN +7

Baltimore Ravens (-1.5) @ Cleveland Browns – CLE +1.5

Detroit Lions (-2) vs. Green Bay Packers – GB +2

Indianapolis Colts (-6.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars – JAX +6.5

New England Patriots (-14) vs. Oakland Raiders – NE -14

San Francisco 49ers (-3) @ Arizona Cardinals – ARI +3

Seattle Seahawks (-4.5) vs. Denver Broncos – SEA -4.5

Miami Dolphins (-4) vs. Kansas City Chiefs – MIA -4

Carolina Panthers (-3) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers – CAR -3

New York Jets (-3) vs. Chicago Bears – NYJ -3