I will list my top target in ADP increments of 10 beginning with number 11 from fantasy football calculator
| 11 | 1.11 | Dalvin Cook | RB | MIN | 12 | |
| 12 | 1.12 | Julio Jones | WR | ATL | 9 | |
| 13 | 1.12 | Todd Gurley | RB | LAR | 9 | |
| 14 | 2.03 | Michael Thomas | WR | NO | 9 | |
| 15 | 2.03 | Tyreek Hill | WR | KC | 12 | |
| 16 | 2.04 | Joe Mixon | RB | CIN | 9 | |
| 17 | 2.04 | Pat Mahomes | QB | KC | 12 | |
| 18 | 2.05 | Odell Beckham Jr | WR | CLE | 7 | |
| 19 | 2.06 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | PIT | 7 | |
| 20 | 2.07 | Travis Kelce | TE | KC | 12 | |
Odell Beckham Jr - There is something to be said about an elite talent playing with a chip on his shoulder. Beckham clearly still feels slighted by the Giants. He's publicly stated his desire to win and that the Giants were not goal congruent. He believes he was sent to Cleveland to "Die". It's hard to say how long ago if ever he was happy playing for the Giants, but he's most certainly in his "happy place" now. Much like Happy Gilmore watching his Grandma win the jackpot, with Virginia Bennett in lingerie all the while Chubbs plays the piano. I think we all know what that did to Happy's short game. So just imagine what it will do to Beckham. All kidding aside Beckham is playing alongside one of his closest friends in Landry with the most talented QB of career. Now let's take a look at some numbers.
Beckham has produced WR1 numbers 47.5% of the weeks he's played for his career. Since he's been in the league that is the highest percentage of games ending as a WR1. Yes ahead of Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, EVERYONE. His weekly blend of upside and floor is unmatched. 30.5% of his games have gone for 25 or more points in ppr while just 6.8% of his games have gone for 8 points or less. That is also the HIGHEST percentage of games of 25 points or more since he's been in the league and the LOWEST percentage of games resulting in 8 points or fewer. All this with a deteriorating Eli Manning and his noodle arm throwing him passes. Through Beckham's first 2 seasons he averaged 102.04 yards per game. He added 25 TDs over his first 27 games as well. I point to the first 2 years because that's before Manning completely fell off a cliff as a passer. That's a 1,632 yard 16 game pace with nearly a TD per game. You could argue that was years ago. You'd be right. It was, but Beckham is just 26 years old. Odell is an absolute must own player as someone who possesses historic potential this year.
| 21 | 2.07 | Damien Williams | RB | KC | 12 | |
| 22 | 2.10 | Mike Evans | WR | TB | 7 | |
| 23 | 2.10 | Leonard Fournette | RB | JAX | 10 | |
| 24 | 2.11 | Antonio Brown | WR | OAK | 6 | |
| 25 | 2.12 | Chris Carson | RB | SEA | 11 | |
| 26 | 3.02 | Adam Thielen | WR | MIN | 12 | |
| 27 | 3.04 | Kerryon Johnson | RB | DET | 5 | |
| 28 | 3.04 | Aaron Jones | RB | GB | 11 | |
| 29 | 3.05 | Devonta Freeman | RB | ATL | 9 | |
| 30 | 3.05 | Keenan Allen | WR | LAC | 12 | |
This group is oozing with upside. My favorite, however, is Aaron Jones.
Aaron Jones was hyper efficient with the touches he received last year averaging 5.5 ypc. If you exclude week 3 (his first game back from suspension) and week 15 (the game he went down with injury) he was on a 1,408 yard 16 game pace. Over those 10 games he scored 9 Touchdowns. Jones accomplished all of this on just 14.8 touches per game over this span as the Packers were dead last in rush attempts. Rodgers also played most of the year on one leg. Now with a healthy Rodgers and a new coach the Packer offense is near lock to score more. Jones also ran circles around backfield mate Jamaal Williams last season (5.5 ypc for Jones compared to 3.8 for Williams). Jones in all likelihood will get more touches this season as the far superior talent giving him upside to eclipse 1500 total yards and score 12 + TDs
Honorable mentions for this group:
Leonard Fornette - His only real concern is his health and that is built into his ADP. Nick Foles will provide stability to the offense and their defense is a prime candidate to bounce back to elite status with the addition of rookie Josh Allen on defense wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. If Fornette can just give 14 healthy games he will be a major value this season.
Chris Carson - I'm all in on Chris Carson. He's the lead back for the team that is a lock to be in the top 5 in rush attempts. The hype from reports of him getting 50+ targets this season has skyrocketed his ADP to a point that has severely limited his upside. For this reason I prefer Jones and Fornette over him.
| 31 | 3.06 | Josh Jacobs | RB | OAK | 6 | |
| 32 | 3.07 | David Montgomery | RB | CHI | 6 | |
| 33 | 3.09 | George Kittle | TE | SF | 4 | |
| 34 | 3.10 | Amari Cooper | WR | DAL | 8 | |
| 35 | 3.11 | Derrick Henry | RB | TEN | 11 | |
| 36 | 3.11 | Sony Michel | RB | NE | 10 | |
| 37 | 4.01 | Melvin Gordon | RB | LAC | 12 | |
| 38 | 4.02 | Zach Ertz | TE | PHI | 10 | |
| 39 | 4.02 | Stefon Diggs | WR | MIN | 12 | |
| 40 | 4.02 | Mark Ingram | RB | BAL | 8 | |
For this section I thought I'd throw a little wrinkle in and give brief explanations for the guys I'm not targeting in this range first.
Josh Jacobs - I do not think the Raiders are going to be a good team leading to many negative game scripts. Jacobs may have a 3 down skill set, but rookie RBs struggle the most with pass protection. Jalen Richard could very well be used in most passing down situations. This also doesn't project to be a top 15 offense which will cap his TD upside. I don't think he will be a bust, but I prefer other RBs in this range.
George Kittle - Simply put I'm not an advocate for drafting TEs early. I want to be as loaded as can be at RB and WR. I also prefer the value of OJ Howard and Vance McDonald at the position.
Amari Cooper - Cooper was one of my top targets early in the summer. His somewhat mysterious foot injury has given me cause for pause. First it was labeled as plantar fasciitis. Then "intrinsic muscle strain". What in the hell does that even mean ?? Next, it was just "more of a strain". Whatever it's labeled as it is currently impacting his ability to cut during his routes. If this is something that lingers into the season it could severely limit his playmaking ability.
Derek Henry - Henry needs positive game scripts. I know it's just preseason, but it's hard to ignore just how atrocious the Titans have looked.
Melvin Gordon - Recent reports of Chargers beat writer having a "hunch" he plays week one seems more wishful thinking than optimism to me. Gordon is looking for roughly an additional 4 million per year from the Chargers. They have no reason to budge. Gordon has never played all 16 games and they have 2 younger backs that will form a very productive one-two punch. Let someone else take the risk and scour Twitter daily for any positive update on this situation.
Zach Ertz - See above with Kittle.
Stefon Diggs - I like Diggs a lot if you went RB heavy early. He's a safe play as someone who is coming off a 1000 yard 100 catch campaign, but as my man Mike McDermott in Rounders said "if you're too careful, your whole life can become a grind". Drafting Diggs is being careful. He doesn't have league winning upside. The dude averaged just 10 yards per catch for Godsakes. That almost makes old Man Larry Fitzgerald seem like a deep threat.
Mark Ingram - Ok honestly, who is going into drafts saying "Man I gotta get Ingram" ? Over the last few years the Ravens have had a repeated cycle of replacing their top back midseason. Justin Forsett to Bernard Pierce to Terrance West to Alex Collins to... Gus Edwards? Now the Ravens finally have a top tier talent in Justice Hill. I see no reason the trend doesn't continue.
Now for the guys I am targeting from this group.
Sony Michel - What do Benjarvus Green-Ellis Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount all have in common??? I know I know ! They are all guys you can find on the island of misfit RBs ! Well perhaps, but I was looking for RBs that had double digit rushing score seasons for the Patriots. Sony played 16 games last season including the playoffs and also eclipsed that mark with 12. Michel is playing the same role as those guys and entering year 2 in the system as a superior talent. He's a legit threat to lead the league in rushing scores and has been hyped up this offseason for improving his pass catching skills. Michel missed week 1 last year after having a knee scope late in camp. He returned week 2, but didn't really take over the backfield till week 4. In his full games from week 4 on he averaged 82.5 rushing yards per game. If you include his playoff totals he averaged just over 89 rushing yards per game. Those come out to totals of 1320 and 1429 over 16 games. He can realistically fall somewhere in that range with double digit scores. Now just imagine if he actually does improve in the pass game and adds on 200+ receiving yards ? That's an every week RB1.
David Montgomery - My thought process is simple. Last season the Bears gave Jordan howard 250 carries despite his 3.7 ypc. They gave him an additional 26 targets as well. Montgomery has far greater passing down skills than Howard. Cohen will still dominate 3rd down work, but even if Montgomery just gets the same opportunity Howard did last year he will turn a nice profit for his fantasy owners. Why do I think he can be more efficient than Howard ? Only one player is college football history has broken 100 tackles in a season. David Montgomery... and he did it twice. He passed the eye test this preseason by shedding off numerous would be tacklers. I believe he can average around 4.5 ypc. On 250 carries that equates to 1125 yards. I think he will receive 30-35 receptions which would put him around 1400 total yards making him a high end RB2.
| 41 | 4.05 | Brandin Cooks | WR | LAR | 9 | |
| 42 | 4.05 | Marlon Mack | RB | IND | 6 | |
| 43 | 4.06 | Julian Edelman | WR | NE | 10 | |
| 44 | 4.07 | Chris Godwin | WR | TB | 7 | |
| 45 | 4.08 | Robert Woods | WR | LAR | 9 | |
| 46 | 4.09 | Tyler Lockett | WR | SEA | 11 | |
| 47 | 4.09 | Deshaun Watson | QB | HOU | 10 | |
| 48 | 4.11 | Phillip Lindsay | RB | DEN | 10 | |
| 49 | 5.01 | Cooper Kupp | WR | LAR | 9 | |
| 50 | 5.02 | T.Y. Hilton | WR | IND | 6 | |
When I look at this group a certain song comes to mind. RETURN OF THE MACK. Andrew Luck's retirement has plummeted Mack's ADP and Mack has returned to value town because of it. The Colts have a top 5 offensive line if not the best line in the league. They are loaded with offensive weapons and despite receiving numerous offers all offseason for Brisset they kept him. Mack was the 3rd down back his rookie year and last year he proved to be a workhorse between the tackles. In year 3 he could combine both skillsets to emerge as a rare 3 down back. Losing Luck definitely downgrades the offense, but probably not to the degree the public thinks and it could lead to more volume for Mack as well. He's a dark horse to lead the AFC in rushing.
| 51 | 5.03 | Miles Sanders | RB | PHI | 10 | |
| 52 | 5.03 | Tevin Coleman | RB | SF | 4 | |
| 53 | 5.05 | Aaron Rodgers | QB | GB | 11 | |
| 54 | 5.05 | Kenny Golladay | WR | DET | 5 | |
| 55 | 5.06 | Mike Williams | WR | LAC | 12 | |
| 56 | 5.07 | O.J. Howard | TE | TB | 7 | |
| 57 | 5.07 | A.J. Green | WR | CIN | 9 | |
| 58 | 5.09 | Calvin Ridley | WR | ATL | 9 | |
| 59 | 5.10 | Josh Gordon | WR | NE | 10 | |
| 60 | 5.11 | Austin Ekeler | RB | LAC | 12 | |
This is where we get down to the nitty gritty.
Miles Sanders and Tevin Coleman are expected to be lead backs of committee backfields. We know what we are getting with Coleman. A player who can play all 3 downs, but needs a running mate to share the load so he can remain effective. Miles Sanders is a bit of a mystery box. We fantasy owners love the mystery box. What we do know is Doug Pederson loves to use the RBBC. Sanders looked elusive in the preseason, but based on Pedersons history I do not think he will see enough volume to give much of a payoff at this price. This is where I like to pivot (Ross voice) to WRs.
Mike Williams - He was a top 10 pick in 2017 for a reason. He's a monster. He has elite ball skills that helped him score 10 TDs last year on just 66 targets. Not only is he entering the fabled breakout 3rd season, but he's also stepping into an every down role. I give him the 3rd best odds to lead the league in receiving TDs behind only Beckham and Adams.
Josh Gordon - Could this finally be the year ? Is it possible? There's no analytics needed for this breakdown. Josh Gordon is a truly special talent. If he is finally mentally healthy he will be a league winner. I'm all in either way. As Steve Rodgers said to Bucky " I'm with you till the end of the line ". I just want this man to succeed. I believe his time has come to show the world he can still dominate.
| 61 | 5.11 | Evan Engram | TE | NYG | 11 | |
| 62 | 6.01 | Tyler Boyd | WR | CIN | 9 | |
| 63 | 6.01 | Hunter Henry | TE | LAC | 12 | |
| 64 | 6.02 | Derrius Guice | RB | WAS | 10 | |
| 65 | 6.03 | Baker Mayfield | QB | CLE | 7 | |
| 66 | 6.03 | James White | RB | NE | 10 | |
| 67 | 6.04 | Duke Johnson | RB | HOU | 10 | |
| 68 | 6.07 | Latavius Murray | RB | NO | 9 | |
| 69 | 6.08 | Matt Ryan | QB | ATL | 9 | |
| 70 | 6.08 | D.J. Moore | WR | CAR | 7 | |
After firing Hue Jackson Baker Mayfield had a pace of 4508 yards and 38 TDs. QBs historically have their biggest statistical leaps in year two. Recent examples would be Carson Wentz 2017 and Pat Mahomes 2018. Both monster year twos. On top of that he now has a generational WR talent in Beckham. Baker has sky high upside this season. 4600 40 is in his range of outcomes.
Latavius Murray - He's inheriting the Ingram role in a backfield that has been a fantasy goldmine during the Brees/Payton era. 1000+ total yards and double digit scores is a real possibility.
| 71 | 6.09 | Robby Anderson | WR | NYJ | 4 | |
| 72 | 6.11 | Carson Wentz | QB | PHI | 10 | |
| 73 | 6.11 | Jared Cook | TE | NO | 9 | |
| 74 | 6.12 | Alshon Jeffery | WR | PHI | 10 | |
| 75 | 7.01 | Jarvis Landry | WR | CLE | 7 | |
| 76 | 7.03 | Drew Brees | QB | NO | 9 | |
| 77 | 7.03 | Tarik Cohen | RB | CHI | 6 | |
| 78 | 7.04 | Kenyan Drake | RB | MIA | 5 | |
| 79 | 7.05 | Dede Westbrook | WR | JAX | 10 | |
| 80 | 7.06 | Vance McDonald | TE | PIT | 7 | |
Vance McDonald - This is my number one TE target. He has George Kittle breakout written all over him. He's an explosive athlete and a tank to tackle. The only thing that could hold him back is health. I believe if he turns in just 12 healthy games he will be a top 6 TE and if his health can hold all 16 he will crack the top 3.
| 81 | 7.07 | Will Fuller | WR | HOU | 10 | |
| 82 | 7.08 | Allen Robinson | WR | CHI | 6 | |
| 83 | 7.09 | Russell Wilson | QB | SEA | 11 | |
| 84 | 7.11 | Darwin Thompson | RB | KC | 12 | |
| 85 | 7.11 | Christian Kirk | WR | ARI | 12 | |
| 86 | 7.12 | Rashaad Penny | RB | SEA | 11 | |
| 87 | 8.01 | Jared Goff | QB | LAR | 9 | |
| 88 | 8.01 | Curtis Samuel | WR | CAR | 7 | |
| 89 | 8.02 | Darrell Henderson | RB | LAR | 9 | |
| 90 | 8.04 | Matt Breida | RB | SF | 4 | |
Will Fuller, Christian Kirk and Rashaad Penny have massive weekly upside. Penny will need an injury to Carson, but if that happens Penny becomes a league winner and is worth the investment to wait and see. Samuel, Thompson and Brieda should all be very worthwhile fantasy assets.
| 91 | 8.05 | David Njoku | TE | CLE | 7 | |
| 92 | 8.06 | Jordan Howard | RB | PHI | 10 | |
| 93 | 8.07 | Cam Newton | QB | CAR | 7 | |
| 94 | 8.07 | Emmanuel Sanders | WR | DEN | 10 | |
| 95 | 8.08 | Marvin Jones | WR | DET | 5 | |
| 96 | 8.09 | Chicago Defense | DEF | CHI | 6 | |
| 97 | 8.10 | LeSean McCoy | RB | BUF | 6 | |
| 98 | 8.10 | Sammy Watkins | WR | KC | 12 | |
| 99 | 8.11 | Kareem Hunt | RB | CLE | 7 | |
| 100 | 8.12 | Royce Freeman | RB | DEN | 10 | |
Marvin Jones is a safe floor play here. Sammy Watkins is the Home Run upside pivot.
High upside bench stashes
Tony Pollard
Justice Hill
Marquez Valdez-Scantling
James Washington
Geronimo Allsion
Donte Moncrief
Dante Pettis
DeSean Jackson
Anthony Miller
Malcom Brown
Michael Gallup
Justin Jackson
Jaylen Samuels
Marquise Goodwin
Tre'Quan Smith
Deebo Samuel
Damien Harris
Courtland Sutton
Tune in next time for more insight.
Till then.... Godspeed
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