The game I love

Every summer I get sick. Like clock work after each NFL draft I get hit with a fever. A fever so strong nothing can break it. At least not yet. It's fantasy football fever. I am able to maintain  it by logging into my draft app and beginning to draft best ball teams. My desire for drafting becomes insatiable. Every day I will draft at least one team. Drafting countless teams before even the month of June arrives. Round 18 dart throws of names like Jaylen Hurd and Arcega-Whiteside bring happiness to my very soul. I find myself devoting all my free time into Fantasy Football research. With the NFL season just a week away I decided to share some of my thoughts.

I will list my top target in ADP increments of 10 beginning with number 11 from fantasy football calculator

11	1.11	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	12
12	1.12	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	9
13	1.12	Todd Gurley	RB	LAR	9
14	2.03	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	9
15	2.03	Tyreek Hill	WR	KC	12
16	2.04	Joe Mixon	RB	CIN	9
17	2.04	Pat Mahomes	QB	KC	12
18	2.05	Odell Beckham Jr	WR	CLE	7
19	2.06	JuJu Smith-Schuster	WR	PIT	7
20	2.07	Travis Kelce	TE	KC	12

Odell Beckham Jr - There is something to be said about an elite talent playing with a chip on his shoulder. Beckham clearly still feels slighted by the Giants. He's publicly stated his desire to win and that the Giants were not goal congruent. He believes he was sent to Cleveland to "Die". It's hard to say how long ago if ever he was happy playing for the Giants, but he's most certainly in his "happy place" now. Much like Happy Gilmore watching his Grandma win the jackpot, with Virginia Bennett in lingerie all the while Chubbs plays the piano. I think we all know what that did to Happy's short game. So just imagine what it will do to Beckham. All kidding aside Beckham is playing alongside one of his closest friends in Landry with the most talented QB of career. Now let's take a look at some numbers.

Beckham has produced WR1 numbers 47.5% of the weeks he's played for his career. Since he's been in the league that is the highest percentage of games ending as a WR1. Yes ahead of Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown, EVERYONE. His weekly blend of upside and floor is unmatched. 30.5% of his games have gone for 25 or more points in ppr while just 6.8% of his games have gone for 8 points or less. That is also the HIGHEST percentage of games of 25 points or more since he's been in the league and the LOWEST percentage of games resulting in 8 points or fewer. All this with a deteriorating Eli Manning and his noodle arm throwing him passes. Through Beckham's first 2 seasons he averaged 102.04 yards per game. He added 25 TDs over his first 27 games as well. I point to the first 2 years because that's before Manning completely fell off a cliff as a passer. That's a 1,632 yard 16 game pace with nearly a TD per game. You could argue that was years ago. You'd be right. It was, but Beckham is just 26 years old. Odell is an absolute must own player as someone who possesses historic potential this year.

21	2.07	Damien Williams	RB	KC	12
22	2.10	Mike Evans	WR	TB	7
23	2.10	Leonard Fournette	RB	JAX	10
24	2.11	Antonio Brown	WR	OAK	6
25	2.12	Chris Carson	RB	SEA	11
26	3.02	Adam Thielen	WR	MIN	12
27	3.04	Kerryon Johnson	RB	DET	5
28	3.04	Aaron Jones	RB	GB	11
29	3.05	Devonta Freeman	RB	ATL	9
30	3.05	Keenan Allen	WR	LAC	12

This group is oozing with upside. My favorite, however, is Aaron Jones.

Aaron Jones was hyper efficient with the touches he received last year averaging 5.5 ypc. If you exclude week 3 (his first game back from suspension) and week 15 (the game he went down with injury) he was on a 1,408 yard 16 game pace. Over those 10 games he scored 9 Touchdowns. Jones accomplished all of this on just 14.8 touches per game over this span as the Packers were dead last in rush attempts. Rodgers also played most of the year on one leg. Now with a healthy Rodgers and a new coach the Packer offense is near lock to score more. Jones also ran circles around backfield mate Jamaal Williams last season (5.5 ypc for Jones compared to 3.8 for Williams). Jones in all likelihood will get more touches this season as the far superior talent giving him upside to eclipse 1500 total yards and score 12 + TDs

Honorable mentions for this group:

Leonard Fornette - His only real concern is his health and that is built into his ADP. Nick Foles will provide stability to the offense and their defense is a prime candidate to bounce back to elite status with the addition of rookie Josh Allen on defense wreaking havoc on opposing offenses. If Fornette can just give 14 healthy games he will be a major value this season. 

Chris Carson - I'm all in on Chris Carson. He's the lead back for the team that is a lock to be in the top 5 in rush attempts. The hype from reports of him getting 50+ targets this season has skyrocketed his ADP to a point that has severely limited his upside. For this reason I prefer Jones and Fornette over him.

31	3.06	Josh Jacobs	RB	OAK	6
32	3.07	David Montgomery	RB	CHI	6
33	3.09	George Kittle	TE	SF	4
34	3.10	Amari Cooper	WR	DAL	8
35	3.11	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	11
36	3.11	Sony Michel	RB	NE	10
37	4.01	Melvin Gordon	RB	LAC	12
38	4.02	Zach Ertz	TE	PHI	10
39	4.02	Stefon Diggs	WR	MIN	12
40	4.02	Mark Ingram	RB	BAL	8

For this section I thought I'd throw a little wrinkle in and give brief explanations for the guys I'm not targeting in this range first.

Josh Jacobs - I do not think the Raiders are going to be a good team leading to many negative game scripts. Jacobs may have a 3 down skill set, but rookie RBs struggle the most with pass protection. Jalen Richard could very well be used in most passing down situations. This also doesn't project to be a top 15 offense which will cap his TD upside. I don't think he will be a bust, but I prefer other RBs in this range.

George Kittle - Simply put I'm not an advocate for drafting TEs early. I want to be as loaded as can be at RB and WR. I also prefer the value of OJ Howard and Vance McDonald at the position.

Amari Cooper - Cooper was one of my top targets early in the summer. His somewhat mysterious foot injury has given me cause for pause. First it was labeled as plantar fasciitis. Then "intrinsic muscle strain". What in the hell does that even mean ?? Next, it was just "more of a strain". Whatever it's labeled as it is currently impacting his ability to cut during his routes. If this is something that lingers into the season it could severely limit his playmaking ability.

Derek Henry - Henry needs positive game scripts. I know it's just preseason, but it's hard to ignore just how atrocious the Titans have looked.

Melvin Gordon - Recent reports of Chargers beat writer having a "hunch" he plays week one seems more wishful thinking than optimism to me. Gordon is looking for roughly an additional 4 million per year from the Chargers. They have no reason to budge. Gordon has never played all 16 games and they have 2 younger backs that will form a very productive one-two punch. Let someone else take the risk and scour Twitter daily for any positive update on this situation. 

Zach Ertz - See above with Kittle.

Stefon Diggs - I like Diggs a lot if you went RB heavy early. He's a safe play as someone who is coming off a 1000 yard 100 catch campaign, but as my man Mike McDermott in Rounders said "if you're too careful, your whole life can become a grind". Drafting Diggs is being careful. He doesn't have league winning upside. The dude averaged just 10 yards per catch for Godsakes. That almost makes old Man Larry Fitzgerald seem like a deep threat.

Mark Ingram - Ok honestly, who is going into drafts saying "Man I gotta get Ingram" ? Over the last few years the Ravens have had a repeated cycle of replacing their top back midseason. Justin Forsett to Bernard Pierce to Terrance West to Alex Collins to... Gus Edwards? Now the Ravens finally have a top tier talent in Justice Hill. I see no reason the trend doesn't continue.

Now for the guys I am targeting from this group.

Sony Michel - What do Benjarvus Green-Ellis Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount all have in common??? I know I know ! They are all guys you can find on the island of misfit RBs ! Well perhaps, but I was looking for RBs that had double digit rushing score seasons for the Patriots. Sony played 16 games last season including the playoffs and also eclipsed that mark with 12. Michel is playing the same role as those guys and entering year 2 in the system as a superior talent. He's a legit threat to lead the league in rushing scores and has been hyped up this offseason for improving his pass catching skills. Michel missed week 1 last year after having a knee scope late in camp. He returned week 2, but didn't really take over the backfield till week 4. In his full games from week 4 on he averaged 82.5 rushing yards per game. If you include his playoff totals he averaged just over 89 rushing yards per game. Those come out to totals of 1320 and 1429 over 16 games. He can realistically fall somewhere in that range with double digit scores. Now just imagine if he actually does improve in the pass game and adds on 200+ receiving yards ? That's an every week RB1.

David Montgomery - My thought process is simple. Last season the Bears gave Jordan howard 250 carries despite his 3.7 ypc. They gave him an additional 26 targets as well. Montgomery has far greater passing down skills than Howard. Cohen will still dominate 3rd down work, but even if Montgomery just gets the same opportunity Howard did last year he will turn a nice profit for his fantasy owners. Why do I think he can be more efficient than Howard ? Only one player is college football history has broken 100 tackles in a season. David Montgomery... and he did it twice. He passed the eye test this preseason by shedding off numerous would be tacklers. I believe he can average around 4.5 ypc. On 250 carries that equates to 1125 yards. I think he will receive 30-35 receptions which would put him around 1400 total yards making him a high end RB2.

41	4.05	Brandin Cooks	WR	LAR	9
42	4.05	Marlon Mack	RB	IND	6
43	4.06	Julian Edelman	WR	NE	10
44	4.07	Chris Godwin	WR	TB	7
45	4.08	Robert Woods	WR	LAR	9
46	4.09	Tyler Lockett	WR	SEA	11
47	4.09	Deshaun Watson	QB	HOU	10
48	4.11	Phillip Lindsay	RB	DEN	10
49	5.01	Cooper Kupp	WR	LAR	9
50	5.02	T.Y. Hilton	WR	IND	6

When I look at this group a certain song comes to mind. RETURN OF THE MACK. Andrew Luck's retirement has plummeted Mack's ADP and Mack has returned to value town because of it. The Colts have a top 5 offensive line if not the best line in the league. They are loaded with offensive weapons and despite receiving numerous offers all offseason for Brisset they kept him. Mack was the 3rd down back his rookie year and last year he proved to be a workhorse between the tackles. In year 3 he could combine both skillsets to emerge as a rare 3 down back. Losing Luck definitely downgrades the offense, but probably not to the degree the public thinks and it could lead to more volume for Mack as well. He's a dark horse to lead the AFC in rushing.

51	5.03	Miles Sanders	RB	PHI	10
52	5.03	Tevin Coleman	RB	SF	4
53	5.05	Aaron Rodgers	QB	GB	11
54	5.05	Kenny Golladay	WR	DET	5
55	5.06	Mike Williams	WR	LAC	12
56	5.07	O.J. Howard	TE	TB	7
57	5.07	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	9
58	5.09	Calvin Ridley	WR	ATL	9
59	5.10	Josh Gordon	WR	NE	10
60	5.11	Austin Ekeler	RB	LAC	12

This is where we get down to the nitty gritty.

Miles Sanders and Tevin Coleman are expected to be lead backs of committee backfields. We know what we are getting with Coleman. A player who can play all 3 downs, but needs a running mate to share the load so he can remain effective. Miles Sanders is a bit of a mystery box. We fantasy owners love the mystery box. What we do know is Doug Pederson loves to use the RBBC. Sanders looked elusive in the preseason, but based on Pedersons history I do not think he will see enough volume to give much of a payoff at this price. This is where I like to pivot (Ross voice) to WRs.

Mike Williams - He was a top 10 pick in 2017 for a reason. He's a monster. He has elite ball skills that helped him score 10 TDs last year on just 66 targets. Not only is he entering the fabled breakout 3rd season, but he's also stepping into an every down role. I give him the 3rd best odds to lead the league in receiving TDs behind only Beckham and Adams.

Josh Gordon - Could this finally be the year ? Is it possible? There's no analytics needed for this breakdown. Josh Gordon is a truly special talent. If he is finally mentally healthy he will be a league winner. I'm all in either way. As Steve Rodgers said to Bucky " I'm with you till the end of the line ". I just want this man to succeed. I believe his time has come to show the world he can still dominate.

61	5.11	Evan Engram	TE	NYG	11
62	6.01	Tyler Boyd	WR	CIN	9
63	6.01	Hunter Henry	TE	LAC	12
64	6.02	Derrius Guice	RB	WAS	10
65	6.03	Baker Mayfield	QB	CLE	7
66	6.03	James White	RB	NE	10
67	6.04	Duke Johnson	RB	HOU	10
68	6.07	Latavius Murray	RB	NO	9
69	6.08	Matt Ryan	QB	ATL	9
70	6.08	D.J. Moore	WR	CAR	7

After firing Hue Jackson Baker Mayfield had a pace of 4508 yards and 38 TDs. QBs historically have their biggest statistical leaps in year two. Recent examples would be Carson Wentz 2017 and Pat Mahomes 2018. Both monster year twos. On top of that he now has a generational WR talent in Beckham. Baker has sky high upside this season. 4600 40 is in his range of outcomes.

Latavius Murray - He's inheriting the Ingram role in a backfield that has been a fantasy goldmine during the Brees/Payton era. 1000+ total yards and double digit scores is a real possibility.

71	6.09	Robby Anderson	WR	NYJ	4
72	6.11	Carson Wentz	QB	PHI	10
73	6.11	Jared Cook	TE	NO	9
74	6.12	Alshon Jeffery	WR	PHI	10
75	7.01	Jarvis Landry	WR	CLE	7
76	7.03	Drew Brees	QB	NO	9
77	7.03	Tarik Cohen	RB	CHI	6
78	7.04	Kenyan Drake	RB	MIA	5
79	7.05	Dede Westbrook	WR	JAX	10
80	7.06	Vance McDonald	TE	PIT	7

Vance McDonald - This is my number one TE target. He has George Kittle breakout written all over him. He's an explosive athlete and a tank to tackle. The only thing that could hold him back is health. I believe if he turns in just 12 healthy games he will be a top 6 TE and if his health can hold all 16 he will crack the top 3.

81	7.07	Will Fuller	WR	HOU	10
82	7.08	Allen Robinson	WR	CHI	6
83	7.09	Russell Wilson	QB	SEA	11
84	7.11	Darwin Thompson	RB	KC	12
85	7.11	Christian Kirk	WR	ARI	12
86	7.12	Rashaad Penny	RB	SEA	11
87	8.01	Jared Goff	QB	LAR	9
88	8.01	Curtis Samuel	WR	CAR	7
89	8.02	Darrell Henderson	RB	LAR	9
90	8.04	Matt Breida	RB	SF	4

Will Fuller, Christian Kirk and Rashaad Penny have massive weekly upside. Penny will need an injury to Carson, but if that happens Penny becomes a league winner and is worth the investment to wait and see. Samuel, Thompson and Brieda should all be very worthwhile fantasy assets.

91	8.05	David Njoku	TE	CLE	7
92	8.06	Jordan Howard	RB	PHI	10
93	8.07	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	7
94	8.07	Emmanuel Sanders	WR	DEN	10
95	8.08	Marvin Jones	WR	DET	5
96	8.09	Chicago Defense	DEF	CHI	6
97	8.10	LeSean McCoy	RB	BUF	6
98	8.10	Sammy Watkins	WR	KC	12
99	8.11	Kareem Hunt	RB	CLE	7
100	8.12	Royce Freeman	RB	DEN	10

Marvin Jones is a safe floor play here. Sammy Watkins is the Home Run upside pivot.

High upside bench stashes

Tony Pollard

Justice Hill

Marquez Valdez-Scantling

James Washington 

Geronimo Allsion

Donte Moncrief

Dante Pettis

DeSean Jackson

Anthony Miller

Malcom Brown

Michael Gallup

Justin Jackson

Jaylen Samuels

Marquise Goodwin

Tre'Quan Smith

Deebo Samuel

Damien Harris

Courtland Sutton

Tune in next time for more insight.

Till then.... Godspeed

PWS 13

PWS is now a teenager. The age where we think we are smarter than everyone. Where we act and think irrationally. I find this to be very ironic as I look over the #PWS13 rosters.

KHH - When you hit the age of 13 you start to have an interest in the opposite sex. Unfortunately boys have no idea what they are doing. Much like George being seduced by one of the hot girls in school, Melvin Gordon. George thinks Gordon is cool. George has aspirations of taking Gordon to the school dance. What George will come to find is Gordon... is just not that into him. Gordon is interested in Highscool boys with a nice car and a pocket full of trust fund money. Gordon will not settle for anything less. Now, if George had listened to his parents he wouldn't have all his eggs in one basket. He would talk to other girls. Have other girls phone numbers. Have a lot of girls that could make the rest of his friend jealous at the end of year dance. George however does not have a back up plan. George has one of the worst benches in PWS history. This will leave George in puppy love heart break.

Agg Swagg - When you turn 13 it can be cool to be bad. You get to show off in front of your friends and have a couple laughs. At the end of the day where does that leave you ? In detention reflecting back on how it all went so wrong. Nick is associating with a crowd of bad boys in Zeke and Tyreek. This will be a one way ticket to the annex if he doesn't shape up fast.

Little Giants - Man elementary school can be easy for some kids, but social studies ... division... this is going to be tough! Sadly for Phillip he is too arrogant to study. His past grade school success has left him fat. Both from all his celebratory cake he ate all summer and with arrogance. Phillip showed up to the test thinking it was going to be simple. Draft Todd Gurley. Easy... A+.... if Phillip had cared to study at all his research would have showed that times have changed. Gurley isn't the correct answer anymore. Leaving Phillip to attend after school tutoring sessions and grounded from cake. Oh how the mighty have fallen.

The Comebacks - It can be easy to fall into peer pressure at this age. Luckily for Drew he was raised in a good home with a brother named The People's Champ. Drew is a responsible young lad with aspirations of a scholarship. Everyone told him not to draft Sony Michel. Drew did his homework. He could not be seduced by the pressure of his peers. He drafted Michel with confidence. Good study habits will pay off. Much like they did when the teacher brought out a pop quiz. Only Drew was prepared and aced it with Tony Pollard.

TPC - it's hard to be a good role model for your younger brother growing up. To teach good study habits, or how to find #value. Brett isn't worried so much about today as he is for the future. Brett is drafting next years first rounders in Aaron Jones and Leonard Fornette. Brett has this years MVP as well in Carson Wentz. Brett has also befriended the school athlete Mike William's. Mike Williams will help keep Brett out of Bye week Bully trouble.

Party with Mahomies - We think we are old at 13. We think we are tough. We try not to be afraid of the things that scared us as a kid. Mike is petrified of Clowns. Wanting to act tough Mike accepted the offer to watch the New IT movie. BIG mistake. This movie was staring the biggest and scariest clown of all... Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown goes on to haunt Mike's dreams every night... all season long.


The Papa Burgundys - Ever finish a test surprisingly fast compared to the rest of the class ? Most of us fall into a panic, frantically searching for something we might have missed. Well folks, Holeman wasn't one of those. He stood up from his desk like he was Ebers after drafting Michael Jenkins and turned it in with supreme confidence. Thinking to himself "I aced that test so hard". Only to later find out there was a back to the test. Holeman crushed the front page on RBs but completely forgot about the back page which was entirely on WRs. The chase for 4 will remain... Incomplete.

Miller Gold Agency - Procrastination is a common habit for young teenagers. Dylan kept putting off drafting a QB. "I can get one later" he thought after each QB was taken. Before he knew it the window for selecting a QB was closed. Luckily he was given a chance for some extra credit and landed Cam Newton. Will this be enough to pass ? Will Dylan need to do more special assignments? Only time will tell.



Nature Boys - Some of us take gym, others.... they take Home Ec. Taking Home Ec will not make you very popular with the bros. In fact it has already cost Sam one of his good friends Lamar Miller. Sam is still content with cooking it up this year which begs the question.... with all this cooking will Sam have time for wins or will it leave him.... #cooked


Dirty Birds - No one likes the know it all kid. The kid who is constantly correcting you or belittling you for having a trash pokemon collection. #wouldntmakeitinmybinder
Nick's big data computer led him to potential fantasy gold with Nick Chubb but his behavior came at a price. His best friend Andrew Luck no longer wants to hangout. The joy has been robbed from Andrew and thus he must search for new friends. Nick has been forced to befriend the school loser Jared Goff. Has his Luck run out in the Auction Era ?


Aaron's Party - The cool kid. The kid who bullies you and you are just excited he knew your name. Tyler is the kid who throws big parties and when the cops come for a noise complaint, Tyler calmly answers the door and says it's bible study and that "we just love praising the lord so much it's hard not to get excited and shout". The officers tip their caps and move along. Not only does he throw bumpin parties, he has a sick pokemon collection even Nick could envy. His secret ? He will tell you your Charizard is lame and that you need more rare circle shape pokemon. He's such a nice guy that he is even willing to trade you a diamond shape AND a circle shape pokemon for your charizard. Tyler is primed and ready to throw a party that just don't stop.