Beating the Spread week 3

SD + 3

CLE +7

DAL - 4

TB + 7

WAS + 1

GB - 3

NYG - 2

BUF + 3

SEA - 19

DEN -15

Fan Duel Line up

Want to make an easy buck using your weekly match up skills? Look no further than Fan Duel. You can play heads up matches or large field tournaments with 20 participants for a bigger score. They match whatever you deposit up to $200. Take advantage of the free money the site will provide and begin letting your fantasy skills start paying bills.

line up rules: Line up is salary based allotted 60,000 in salary to disperse across QB RB RB WR WR WR TE DEF K.

QB

I'm going with Vick for 8,100 - Luck is a very tempting at home vs Oakland for 8,500 but Im saving 400 and siding with Vick on Monday night in what looks to be a shoot out in the making vs WAS.

RB

David Wilson 7,700 - He's set to explode with the injury to Andre Brown and the first victim is Dallas. Ranking 22nd against the run last year opportunity is knocking for Wilson as they haven't done much in the offseason to sure up the front 7.

Jamaal Charles 8,300 - The Jags were 30th against the run last year and Jamaal Charles has a career 5.8 ypc.... The Chiefs should also be playing with a lead for much of the game leading to more carries and check down throws for Mr. Check down himself Alex Smith. Massive potential in this match up

WR

Julio Jones 8,000 - Playing a defense that was historically bad last season and continues to look lost thus far from preseason play. The game also has the highest scoring potential of any week 1 match ups and with Roddy White returning from a sprained ankle more targets could be in line for Jones who could easily be the number one WR scorer week 1.

Pierre Garcon 6,200 - RGIIIs much anticipated debut at home on Monday night will have an electric feel. The skins and RGIII will be pumped with adrenaline and ready to explode. Garcon will be a target monster in the "X" position in the offense. Finally healthy again (for now) Garcon holds massive potential week 1 in a high scoring affair.

Cecil Shorts 6,300 - A target monster as the teams clear go to WR with Blackmon suspended. Although not a great match up Shorts is one of the most talented WRs in the league. Give him the targets and watch him score.

TE

Jordan Cameron 4,900 - Probably the best buy their is week 1. Cameron is in a very TE friendly offense that has produced career years for Greg Olsen Kellen Winslow JR and Antonio Gates. Cameron with Jimmy Graham skills is next in line and with Josh Gordon suspended the first two weeks he will be the focal point of the passing attack. Did you see his 2 TD preseason debut? J-Cam is ready to rock.

DEF

IND 5,000 - They are at home versus what looks to be the worst offense in the league with an erratic QB making just his 2nd career NFL start. They are a cheap buy but definite top 10 play.

K

Adam Vinatieri - Dome kicker on a very efficient based offense with top 5 potential playing quite possibly the worst defense in the league. He will be needing to ice his foot after the game from all the work

Well there's my fan duel line up. Good luck guys I hope you all jump aboard and have fun taking home weekly cash playing fantasy football on Fan Duel.



Running Back Break Outs in 2013

The Art of YPC Analysis

"Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication" -Leonardo Da Vinci

Beauty is not often found amidst the complexity of life, but rather in the most customary of settings. A sunset, a single mother working two jobs to provide for her family, a friend selflessly standing up for another, a young child's laughter. This things move us. They create a stirring within our very being. And yet these moments are ordinary, every day occurrences. 

As fantasy analysts, we consistently search for the one statistical anomaly that will separate us from our opponents. Examining strength of schedule, trends, NFL draft combine results, offseason player movement, offensive line grades, and other methods, we hope to gain an advantage in our draft preparation. But frequently these efforts get lost in the complexity of meaningless numbers. We are bogged down in the lies of mass quantities and irregularities of information.
[Note: FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here's the link to register.]

The truth is found in the ordinary.


Running backs should be measured by one thing. Yards Per Carry. No stat in all professional sports more accurately gages the effectiveness of a player at any position. Aside from pass protection and receiving, a running back's only goal is to run behind his lineman and gain as many yards as possible. Conversely, a quarterback possesses a multitude of duties that include calling the play, reading the defense, finding open receivers, and keeping his team on the same page. There are a lot less intangibles with backfield players. YPC truly assesses the efficiency of a ball carrier. How good are you really at your job? 



Yards Per Carry is obviously not a perfect statistic. It fails to take into account performance of a running back's offensive line, which is vitally important. A great offensive line can take a mediocre ball carrier and turn him into a good one. But despite their efforts, 5 dominant men cannot transform a good back turn him into a great one. A great back simply is. Regardless of the big uglies in front him, a great runner makes plays happen that leave our jaws on the floor. An elite back makes cuts, jukes, and moves that make up for missed blocks and blow assignments. As a former offensive lineman (cue the fat jokes), I could pin my man on the ground but if I was blocking for someone with average speed, vision, and explosion, the results were four yards at best. Barry Sanders is this theory's best illustration. The lions offensive line defined mediocrity. And yet no rushing attack made defenses over prepare and cringe with fear like the Detroit Lions. Why? Because Barry was great. And his YPC demonstrates that to us.

Using YPC Analysis

YPC is not only a powerful statistic, but more relevantly a tremendous forecaster for future fantasy success. 

Let's give this discussion some context.

Over the years I've studied the running back position quite extensively. The point differential between the 1st and 25th best player is greater at RB than any other fantasy position, and this is where you can gain a huge leg on the competition. For the last 5 years, I've drafted RBs based strictly on the player's YPC and talent demonstrated on tape. I have had tremendous success using this method. Below are my rules for drafting RBs.

YPC Forecasting Rules:

1. Search for young players with near or above a 5.0 YPC. 
2. Must have a sample size of over 50 carries.
3. Must be receiving an increased workload from previous season

Prior Forecasts

Upon my 2009 fantasy draft, I scoured player lists searching for young sleeper running backs heading into the season. I had a strategy in place to draft two stud running backs, and the roll the dice on young talent in the later rounds for a flex position. A young player for the Kansas City Chiefs caught my eye.

Jamaal Charles

2008

• 67 Attempts
• 5.3 YPC
• 357 Yards Rushing

Even though 67 carries is a fairly small sample size, the 5.3 YPC over that period was staggering. Kansas City at the time boasted a very good offensive line(we salute you Willie Roaf), but Charles was amassing substantially more per carry than Larry Johnson or any of his other backfield mates competing for carries. Talent will usually win out, and Charles' quietly a cut above others on his team. I knew if he could just stay healthy and see an increase in workload, the yards and gaudy fantasy numbers would follow.

Jamaal Charles 

2009 

• Attempts: 190
• YPC: 5.8
• Rushing Yards: 1120

The rest was history. Jamaal currently possess the highest YPC in NFL history, and is viewed by fellow Reservations 4-Six contributor Joe Turnbull and I as the most efficient player in the history of the position. What do Barry Sanders (5.0), Adrian Peterson (5.0), Gayle Sayers (5.0), and Jim Brown (5.2) have in common? They all earned career YPCs over 5.0, and yet trail Charles' average of 5.8. His upside is only capped by his physical frailty and the coaches choice to limit carries. In 2013, he will easily eclipse 300 total touches and barring injury have his best season to date. Quite possibly the best season among NFL running backs. And why you ask? Because he's good. Really good. And his YPC demonstrates this to us.

Stevan Ridley 

2011:

• Attempts: 87 
• Yards: 441 
• YPC 5.1

2012: 

• Attempts 290
•  Yards 1263
• YPC 4.4

Same song, different dance. Ridley's 5.1 YPC in his rookie was a huge indicator of the ability to run for big numbers in his sophomore season. Large YPC's show a back's potential and need for a larger work load. And while his average diminished due to a greater workload, he far from disappointed fantasy owners putting solid yardage and a hefty 12 touchdowns. Cash money.

CJ Spiller

2011 

• 107 Attempts  
• 561 Yards   
• 5.2 YPC

After a nice sophomore season, Spiller was the back I had to have last pre season. His 5.2 YPC along with unbelievable speed, hands, and vision screamed a break out for him in 2012.

2012 

• 207 Attempts 
• 1,244 Yards 
• 6.0 YPC

I knew Spiller would burst onto the scene, but  I cannot honestly say I saw him turning the league upside down. CJ will be drafted in the first round for the next 5 years if he can stay healthy.



So what do these applications and stories have anything to do with 2013? 

The here and now?   

More than you ever thought possible. 

Running Back Break Outs in 2013

1. David Wilson

2012 Rookie Season: YPC 5.0

"I just can't draft a player that high in a timeshare. It's a 50-50 split for carries"

Fret no more scared of time share guy. The league's best young back will be running solo due to the unfortunate injury of Andre Brown, giving David Wilson the opportunity of a life time. For the first 4-6 weeks and possibly the entire 2013 season, the league will be mesmerized by the sheer talent and explosiveness of my favorite player heading into 2013. His 5.0 YPC in his rookie season is just the beginning of an illustrious career. Wilson exploded in the preseason, rushing for 90 yards on only 5 carries in one game. Not only is wilson's balance the best I have ever seen, he will also provide PPR support catching dump offs from Eli. Hop on the bandwagon while you still can and hold on for dear life.

2. Chris Ivory

This is where it gets controversial. The haters are trolling in droves to doubt Chris Ivory's fantasy potential in 2013. The negatives are evident to anyone who knows Ivory's situation. I GET IT. Historically horrendous health, terrible situation, zero ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. 

But take one look at these numbers, and I'll make you think twice.

YPC History
2010: 5.2 (139 Attempts)
2011: 4.7 (79 Attempts)
2012: 5.4 (40 Attempts)

Ivory has so much wiggle room on YPC it's scary. Even his workload increases dramatically(it will) and his average falls by an entire yard, all he has to hit is 228 carries to eclipse 1,000 yards. Shonne Greene rushed for over 1K on a ridiculous 276 attempts. And let's be honest, Shonne Greene might be one of the least talented players running the rock in the game today. Not the case with Ivory. Just watch his highlights on youtube. He runs like he's mad at the grass. Sure the Saints offensive line is one of the league's best, but don't forget all pro guard Carl Nicks left for Tampa in 2011. Injuries are the only thing in my mind that can stop the "Pain Train" from eclipsing 1,300 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns. Fingers crossed and keep the ambulances at bay.

3. Lamar Miller

2012: 51 Attempts, 4.9 YPC

Did someone order another running back from "The U" with scary speed and acceleration? Lamar Miller at your service. In limited work for Miami last season, Miller demonstrated killer burst to get to the edge and the willingness to run hard between the tackles. Amassing a YPC of almost 5.0, we must pause and take notice. Oh yeah, and Miller put in WORK this offseason. All caps WORK. Miller trained at Bommarito Performance systems with other elite running backs across the league, including another Canes legend Frank Gore. For those unfamiliar with Pete Bommarito, he is a man that has trained a number of elite-level backs for many years.  Basically he's seen more talent walk through the door than a "We Are the World" music video. So when he states Miller is "the fastest running back" he's ever seen, we must again pause and take notice. Pause. Take Notice. Repeat.

Miller is by far the most talented player in the Fins backfield if not the most talented back in the AFC East behind CJ spiller. RIP to the rumors of a timeshare developing between him and Daniel Thomas. Miller won the job outright and according to Dolphins' writer Armando Salguero has "sewn up" the starting role. Massive amount of carries, catches, yards and touchdowns to follow. It's Miller Time. And yes, I do hate myself a little for that pun.

It's Time

Yards per carry forecasting is far from an exact science. But there is no greater meter of a running backs ability, efficiency, and means to predict future success. These three names will light up scoreboards, highlights reels, and opposing fantasy teams this season. I just hope for your sake they are on your roster. 

On the last Sunday before a full slate of games and mass national hysteria, enjoy the peace and quiet. This is the calm before the storm.

Welcome to the art of YPC.

THE Top 100

 By: Joseph Turnbull

The Top 100

            TIER ONE

1. Adrian Peterson - The biggest physical specimen in the game today (possibly ever) AP is truly in a class of his own. Even late last season he admitted to still not being all the way recovered from his injury which doesn’t seem believable but then again neither was his 2012 season. He rushed for over 2000 yards at less than 100% and now is aiming for 2500.

TIER 2

2. CJ Spiller - The case can most certainly be made for Martin, McCoy, and Charles here (yes I intentionally left off Foster) but I'm siding with spiller for a number of reasons. He totaled 1703 yards last season on just 250 touches which is truly astounding. I have broken down tape and watched games of all the games greats and he is the only back I find myself actually expecting to take it the distance every time he touches the ball. He gives you that hold your breath feeling. His burst, his acceleration, his lateral quickness is second to none. He has shown a lot of growth and maturity as a runner over his first 3 NFL seasons. Although still having bounce it outside tendencies Spiller has become an exponentially better between the tackles runner as well as a more decisive ball carrier. His career chart speaks for itself:

Year 1 - 74 carries 3.8 ypc 24 catches 6.5 yards per catch

Year 2 - 107 carries 5.2 ypc 39 catches 6.9 yards per catch

Year 3 - 207 carries 6.0 ypc 43 catches 10.7 yards per catch

Not only is he getting more efficient each season he's doing it with significantly more volume each time. He has yet to peak and set for his heaviest workload yet. I am sure you have all heard Bill's Offensive Coordinator Nathaniel Hackett say "It's real simple. We're going to give him the ball until he throws up. So he's either got to tap out or throw up on the field." There you have it, Spiller will get more touches than ever this year, making his 2013 ceiling colossal.

3. Jamaal Charles - Charles has survived the foot injury scare and is ready to enjoy his greatest season as a pro. All you really need to know about Charles for 2013 is he had a career low 5.3 ypc last season.... CAREER LOW!!!! It dropped his career ypc to 5.8. 5.8.... let's see.... yeah that's the greatest career ypc in NFL HISTORY and last season he was just 10 months removed from an ACL tear. These stats do not lie Jamaal Charles is the most efficient RB in NFL history and his situation is the brightest it has ever been. He no longer is handcuffed by a coaching philosophies that employ plodders to have more touches (thanks again Todd Haley for your idiotic Thomas Jones workload) The Chiefs are primed for their biggest offensive season in years under Andy Reid and his schedule may very well be the easiest of all backs this season with a line up card of: Jags (30th) Eagles(23rd) Titans(24th) Buffalo(31st) Cleveland(19th) Indy(29th) Giants(25th) Dallas(22nd) Oakland(18th) twice all who ranked in the bottom half of the league against the run last season. Yes, Andy Reid will run a pass first offense, but there's no denying Charles is by far their best weapon. He will be the focal point of their attack as previewed in their preseason opener (Charles 14 snaps: 8 touches) which is ridiculous on many levels given it was the preseason opener. Another item of note is from 04-08 Brian Westbrook averaged 71 catches a season despite missing 9 games over that stretch and McCoy had a 55 catch avg in his 4 seasons under Reid. Catching passes is yet another premium attribute in Jamaal’s' game. He is the most talented back Reid has ever had and he has Alex "checkdown" Smith under center. His upside is scary.

4. Lesean McCoy - The transition from Reid to Kelly alone paves the way for McCoy to have a massive bounce back season. Although not quite transferable it is note worthy that Kelly ran the ball 64.1% of the time over the past 4 years which differs significantly from the 44.6% NFL average over that span. Vick looks great thus far and primed for a big bounce back season as well. The Eagle offense is shaping up to be a very explosive one with the up-tempo style implemented. Its the same style the Patriots used last season that helped them lead the league in offensive snaps along with paving the way for Ridley to gash worn out defenses with the hurry up runs. McCoy too has looked great this preseason and there's no denying his elite skill set. Remember he was a consensus top 3 pick in fantasy last season and for good reason. As long as health holds he will finish as a top 5 fantasy back this season totaling 1700+ yards and double digit scores especially running behind the best OL of his career with All Pro Jason Peters back and the insertion of number 4 overall pick Lane Johnson.

5. Doug Martin - Last seasons number 2 fantasy back despite the loss of his two premier guards. Although there is a bit of sophomore slump possibility Martin carries one of the highest floors of any player in fantasy. He's a rock. With absolutely no running mate Martin is a rare 3 down work horse in todays game. He had a head injury scare but looks all set for the regular season so don't let that hinder you from selecting a back who could very well have 2000 total yards this season (1926 last year)

[Note: FanDuel is hosting a $100,000 Fantasy Football Contest in Week 1. It's $25 to join and first prize is $15,000. Here's the link to register.]

TIER 3

6. Trent Richardson - The Cleveland offense seems primed to make one of the biggest leaps this season under new OC Norv Turner. Turner is targeting a 300 carry 60 catch season workload for T-rich including he wants his best player on the field including 2 minutes situations (spots where many teams insert a 3rd down specialist) If T-rich gets in the neighborhood of that workload he’s going to produce over 1500 total yards with the upside for much more depending on just how efficient he can prove to be when healthy. Last season he played through multiple injuries which played a major role in his 3.6 ypc. Don't let that discourage you T-rich is much more explosive than that stat would have you believe and is reportedly quicker than last season after shedding 7 lbs. He's the centerpiece of a rising offense. Draft with confidence in the top 8.

7. David Wilson - David Wilson will be one of the most entertaining players to watch this season. He is truly electric. He possesses elite RB skills. Elite burst and acceleration with tremendous balance and incredible strength for his size. He finishes off runs with tenacity and falls forward. He's a work in progress in 3rd down situations as he still needs to improve pass protection and he's purely a body catcher as a receiver. He's now set to open the season as the Giants workhorse after the re-fracture of Andre Browns leg. You want lightning in a bottle ? Reach for Wilson. The injury to Brown SKYROCKETS Wilsons value almost assuring him of RB1 status. If he can prove reliable on 3rd downs he has a great chance to finish as a top 3 back.

TIER 4

8. Jimmy Graham - Jimmy is one of the biggest physical freaks in the game today. His athleticism and talent is unquestioned. "last year was very difficult playing all season with that much pain" ohh yeah and he's pretty darn tough playing through back injuries which lead to his down season of 982 yards and 9 TDs over 15 games. Graham was still easily the games number 1 TE and now enters a contract year fully healthy at the prime age of 26. He has been lighting up Saints camp and with the nagging injuries to Colston and the uncertainty of other weapons Brees will likely lean that much heavier on the games premier TE. Just two seasons ago he totaled 99 catches 1310 yards and 11 TDs and there's no reason to believe that now once again healthy and money motivated that he can't at least match those totals this season.

9. Matt Forte - Looks bigger this year than he has in his career but carries the same burst and shake. Appears likely to have bulked up for goal line work, something that has eluded him over the past few seasons. Under new coach Marc Trestman Forte should enjoy a near or career high catch total and if he does in fact throw in red zone work Forte will be a great value pick in the 11-15 pick range. Either way Forte has a solid floor and is every bit worth a top 15 pick, but as you can see I am expecting more. He looks in the best condition of his career while averaging 9.93 ypc this preseason. The Bears offense looks primed to explode this season under Trestmans aggressive offensive style and the plethora of weapons finally at Cutlers disposal. Plenty of scoring to go around and Forte should enjoy a career season as the focal point of this lethal attack.

10. Marshawn Lynch - Despite a career high in carries last season (315) Lynch enjoyed a career high in ypc (5.0). Lynch will again be the workhorse on one of the most run heaviest of teams in one of the best run systems in football and is coming off a career year totaling just under 1800 yards with 12 total TDs in an offense that should only continue to get better. Lynch is one of the safest round 1 picks you can make.

TIER 5

11. Calvin Johnson - What is there to say? Number one fantasy WR the last two seasons coming off a historic 1964 yard campaign. You can easily make the case to bump him higher.

12. Dez Bryant - Dez has the highest ceiling of any WR this season. He was the number 1 fantasy wide out over the last 13 games of 2012 and posted an absurd 879 yard 10 TD line over the final 8 games. Dez has finally arrived as not only a dominant player but a mature one. There's not a corner he can't beat and not a coverage he can't blow by. Dez is a special talent with the best after the catch skills in the game. He's finally in sync with Romo as shown by their route adjustment against the cardinals in their last preseason game. The best of Dez has yet to be seen at age 24 but we got a nice preview of what mammoth production he can total over the second half of last season. Dez is certainly capable of an unworldly 1500-1600 yard 18-20 TD season which would make him a familiar asset on those teams hoisting their championship trophy.

TIER 6

13. Arian Foster - I will stop the slide here due to his boastful confidence about being "fresh". Foster is coming off a 391 touch season with a career low 4.0 ypc and 5.4 yards per catch. He also only totaled 217 yards receiving after eclipsing 600 the previous two seasons. He was noticeably less explosive last season as well and now he's limping into the season with back and calf injuries. It would be quite illogical for the Texans to give him yet another massive workload (393, 339/over 13 games in 2011, and 391 last season) He carries a lot of body breakdown potential this season and the Texans have the best number 2 runner in the league behind him in Ben Tate.

14 Ray Rice - A safe/solid pick at the end of round one. He carries a fairly high floor and seems locked in for 1500 total yards but not much upside here with Bernard Pierce in the wings.

15. Stevan Ridley - Gets the edge on Alf due to Mike Shanahan’s history with exchanging 1000 yard backs. Ridley is a lock for double digit scores in an offense that is clicking on all cylinders in the preseason. With the loss of their receiving weapons from the last year the pats could very well turn to the run game to fill the void where Ridley is every bit capable of doing. He should at least match his total from last year getting over 1200 yards and adding 12 or so scores.

16. Alfred Morris - Not nearly as talented as his stats suggest and as mentioned above its hard to fully trust Shanahan who has spoiled many fantasy aspirations with his on a whim depth chart flips. Roy Helu is a talented back who is every bit capable of taking the reigns and producing massive totals in that run system and he's already locked down the 3rd down role. Never-the-less I will still side with Morris over the next group of elite WRs due to lack of depth at RB and the drop off that will shortly follow. If you do take Morris just be sure to target Helu as early as round 9 in competitive 12 team leagues.
[More in-depth analysis of Morris and Helu here!]

TIER 7

17. Brandon Marshall - The Cutler to Marshall combo is dynamite for Marshall owners. Marshall has long been one of the games elite WRs and is finally in a situation to unleash his full potential. Marshall notched his 4th, 100 catch season with a career high 118 which he took for 1508 yards and 11 TDs also career highs and that was with a more conservative coach. Now under pass happy Trestman Marshall owners will be praising the name. In Trestman we Trust! (Trustman?)

18. Maurice Jones-Drew - 1641 total yards is his low from 09-11 and that was in just 14 games. Yes, I get it high mileage and injury risk. Already 28. In a terrible offense. I've heard it all but MJD looks like the same back after his preseason debut. If he can stay healthy which I believe he will 1600 total yards is his floor. Don't like the offense? As funny as it might sound Gabbert had the offense clicking for much of their last preseason game operating largely in a hurry up style offense. Getting the ball out quick with velocity and placing it on the money. He showed poise and growth as a passer and could very well breakout this year and lead the Jags to... well... respectability providing more scoring opportunities for MJD who lets not forget lead the league in rushing just two seasons ago and is in a contract year.

19.  AJ Green - Monster talent entering the ever so anticipated 3rd year breakout season. Well their won't be a breakout by definition due to his production his first two seasons but he certainly can build on his 1350 yard 11 TD season and take his game and the Bengals to new heights. His upside is some what capped however with Andy Daltons arm limitations, so don't step out and draft over Dez or Marshall.

20. Reggie Bush - A match made in heaven for the Lions offense. Last season Joique Bell had 52 catches and 900 total yards on just 134 touches, very productive for a pedestrian talent. Insert bush and have him as the lead back and watch the total yards spew. Bush will have a high weekly floor regardless of match up due to his versatility. His fantasy worth is not dependent on getting 20 carries or scoring. Even his bad games will still be useful lines. Just take a look at his last preseason game: 15 rush yards 44 receiving for 1 half of play. Not good by any means but Still set to crack double digit points for the game. The lions also received the fewest number of 8 man boxes last season. last years lead back Leshoure saw a stacked box just 6% of the time yet only managed  3.7 ypc, and his longest run of the year was just 16 yards en route to one of Pro Football Focuses worst rankings in elusiveness in the league. Bush has averaged 4.67 ypc the last two seasons and should make his fair share of big runs against softer boxes. Bush should approach if not eclipse 300 touches this season putting him in the 1500-1600 total yard range with a shot at double digit scores. He's an excellent RB 2

Bush looks very happy to be in Detroit. We are happy he is there too!

21. Chris Johnson - Wildly inconsistent for much of the past 3 years but CJ still warrants high end RB2 production. Effort is always in question but when he receives blocking he still resembles "CJ2K" as shown this preseason with his vintage run showcasing how lethal he still is in the open field. He will cede short yardage work to Shonn Greene, but CJ has eclipsed 1000 yards in all 5 of his NFL seasons going over the 1200 yard mark in 4 of them. His total yards for this season should end up like bush around the 1500-1600 total yard range but carries less scoring potential in a much lesser offense with Greene a potential TD vulture.

TIER 8

22. Julio Jones - Another Premium talent entering his fabled 3rd season. Roddy White (32) Tony Gonzales (37) aging and declining. Jones 24, underwent a diet overhaul this offseason cutting out beef and pork to better his nutrition is entering his prime. A massive leap could be in the making for Julio this season but I still think His expectations should be somewhat weighed down for I don't think he will end up cracking the top 3 at the position just yet ( just 20th in targets last season). Expect him to build on last year’s totals but finish in the 4-6 range at the position.

23. Demaryius Thomas - Much like Julio has a lot of competition for targets but with Manning under center and a top 5 skill set at the position coming off a 94/1434/10 season and still just 25 Thomas is locked in the top 25 with the last of the elite labels at wide out.

24. Drew Brees - As much as I suggest waiting on a QB you simply can't pass up Brees at the end of round 2. The prospects of pairing him with Charles/McCoy/Martin/Spiller is too tough to pass much less if he falls into the lap of the guy with the first pick. Brees + AP is one of the most lethal combinations you can have in fantasy. Brees is coming off back to back historic seasons and has a 5 year average of 4,946 yards 38 TDs. Just beyond words and truly in a class by himself. With Sean Payton back and the Saints D still atrocious what’s to stop Brees from a 3rd straight 5,000 yard campaign?

TIER 9

25. Lamar Miller - Yes, the "open competition" talk does put a scare on his draft prospects but all that is now rumored to be for "motivational" purposes. Daniel Thomas has a career 3.54 ypc has a history of fumbles and is an overall softy despite his size and lacks explosiveness. He's a pedestrian talent that Miller will firmly run past soon enough. Miller had a 4.9 ypc last year. Has shown very good burst and elite lateral quickness with darting cutting ability. He fumbled his first carry in his first career start in the preseason opener likely due to jitters (no history of ball security issues) and had a drop on a 3rd down in the last preseason game because he turned his head downfield before securing the pass. Not unforgivable or are those things unable to be cleaned up. They just happened to come in a short span with limited sample size and sadly Joe Philbin is reading far too much into it. He will come around as the rest of fantasy football nation will. Miller has tremendous upside as a potential 3 down workhorse for the team that had the 7th most fantasy points produced on the ground last season. The Miami offense is another young offense on the rise and Miller will be the focal point of that offense sooner rather than later. After working out with Frank Gore in the offseason Gore came away with this in regards to Miller "Lamar is probably the fastest" in comparison to Edgerin James, Willis McGahee, Clinton Portis and himself. OC Mike Sherman was also quoted by reporters earlier this offseason that he "wants a running back who can do it" an every down player who doesn't need to be rotated. Well.... it definitely won't be Daniel Thomas filling that role it will be Miller. Miller has RB1 upside. Take advantage of his falling ADP and enjoy.

26. Larry Fitzgerald - *Sigh of relief* at least that’s what I imagine his first reaction to having Carson Palmer throwing him passes instead of Max Hall John Skelton or the other band of misfits the Cardinals threw under center the last couple seasons. Add new pass first HC Bruce Arians into the mix and the situation is finally ripe for Larry Fitz. Still one of the games best I view him as a tweener between elite WR production and the next tier. He most certainly has the capabilities to resurface as a top 5 WR but I still won't be drafting him over any

27. Eddie Lacy - Yes, Lacy definitely looks to be on the hefty side, but it has not effected his work. Lacy has looked very good in limited action showing good burst and great strength. He's set for the lead back role with the Packers who want to run the ball more. With pass protection deficiencies running the ball effectively is one way to keep rushers honest and Rodgers upright. Going back to last season Cedric Benson averaged 23 touches a game weeks 2-4 including the Monday night game against the Seahawks in which Rodgers went down 8 times in the first half. Seattle has one of the stoutest run defenses and what did the Packers come out and do in the 2nd half trailing? They fed Benson despite his lack of productivity. When Alex Green became the starter he had 20+ carries in each of his first 3 starts before the Packers realized he couldn't get it done (20 carries 35 yards against the Rams). What do you take from this ? The Packers have been searching for a ball carrier to hand it to 20 times a game and Lacy a far superior talent to those two is the guy to do it. Lacy is also a strong bet for double digit TDs in one of the most high octane offenses. Draft Lacy with confidence as your RB3 and enjoy the RB2 production.

TIER 10

28. Steven Jackson - Entering age 30 season with heavy wear and tear and significantly declined skills Jackson is definitely a candidate for the avoid list. However, he did look just fine in the Falcons last preseason game he is in the best situation of his career as he will actually get to see what an endzone looks like and what its like to be in the postseason. All should be motivating factors to perhaps squeeze the last bit of football he has left en route to what would astoundingly be his 9th straight 1,000 yard season with a solid bet for double digit pay dirt splashes.

29. Demarco Murray - Injury risk ? Absolutely. However this is his healthiest offseason as a pro and he's still a part of an NFL dying breed (3 down workhorses) as he had 15+ touches in EVERY single game last season. The Cowboys have under gone a bit of reconstruction with the defensive coordinator change (Montee Kiffen) and playcalling change (Bill Callahan). Kiffen, one of the leagues all time great defensive coordinators has already shown improvement in the Dallas defense in preseason. Showing a fire and hustle that causes ample turnovers. The Cowboys want to become a more balanced team and the improvement on defense should coincide with that desire. Despite how one sided an offense they were last year (31st in rushing attempts) his weekly floor of 15 touches bodes very well for 2013. Even if he gives you just 14 games he should still sit in the 300 touch area and given his combination explosiveness and strength he could unquestionably emerge as an RB1. His value should further be bumped due to how capable back up Lance Dunbar is as a ball carrier. He's an explosive runner who can catch the football. In the event Murray goes down Dunbar will get a minimum of 12 touches a game in a high scoring offense which should yield mid level RB2 status. He is severely overlooked in the fantasy circle making him a very cheap insurance policy.

30. Frank Gore - Gore is coming off a 1446 total yard season with a 4.7 ypc behind the best run blocking OL in the league. However, he averaged just 3.65 ypc over the last 5 weeks of last season and is now 30 years old. Also, that was leading a backfield without Kendall Hunter a more talented back at this stage in their prospective careers. Hunter is now healthy and as explosive as ever as displayed by his limited carries and reports of him being a "blur" running sprints at camp. Gore is declining and Hunter should be their to push him for carries. Think more in the 1200 total yard range with 6-8 scores. A player with really no upside.

TIER 11

31. Victor Cruz - There's not a better blend of high floor and upside after Larry Fitzgerald this season than Cruz. He's a lock to be a top 15 WR (back to back top 13 finishes) and he could easily crack the top 10 or even top 6 at the position if Nicks were to be out for a long period which isn't a stretch. From seeing the two Giant WRs in preseason Cruz is by far the more explosive and will have a full route tree at his disposal to utilize his elite versatility. He's just two years removed from a 1536 yard season. For those who think he has been "figured out" because he had a "down" 1092 10 season he hasn't. He runs every route from short crossing patterns and drags over the middle to posts and go routes deep downfield. He's one of the games best possession WRs yet also one of the games best playmakers and deep threats. He has truly elite ball skills and holds high weekly upside because of his complete repertoire.

32. Aaron Rodgers - I have devalued Rodgers due to the similar value I think Cam Newton Peyton Manning Tom Brady and Matt Stafford will have at the end of the year. A-Rod is still a notch above them with his track record of massive pay dirt splashes (45.5 total TD avg last two years). He will finally have a running game with a true work horse back in Lacy which could limit his rushing TD potential but should transcend their offense to another level with added balance and efficiency. Putting defenses in a lethal "pick your poison" position. The running game should also give him more time to throw with ends having to respect the run game as opposed to just teeing off on Rodgers. This should lead to an elevated yards per attempt very possibly leading the league in this category. I look for his WRs, particularly those who run downfield routes (I.e. Jordy Nelson) to benefit from this. You can pretty much bank 4500 total yards and 40 total TDs with obvious upside for more. 

33. Vincent Jackson - Finished last season as the number 6 WR. That finish came without a fluky TD total (just 8) So although his yards will probably come down a bit from the 1384 he posted last year there's room for scoring growth. The Bucs will boast one of the games best ground attacks behind Martin, It's a contract year for Freeman so he has much incentive to play sharp and get the ball to his best weapon and Tampa Bay plans to move V-Jax all over the field. Sending him in motion and playing the slot as well as outside to keep from defenses being able to key on him. Ranked just ahead of Garcon due to his much higher floor.

TIER 12

34. Pierre Garcon - If his foot can hold up and his explosion isn’t hindered Garcon will be a WR1 as a target monster playing Shanahan’s "X" position. RGIII should be settled in the pocket much more this season which should mean more of a traditional offense leaving the door open for more passes and more passes downfield to Garcon. Electing not to have surgery on his foot though could prove costly as it is very susceptible to re-injury, but "X" could very well mark the spot this season with his heavenly upside.

35. Andre Johnson - Yes, he is coming off a 1598 yard season but that hefty total was due in large part to a fluky 273 yard outburst in an OT game against the Jags. He had 5 games of 56 yards or less. He is now 32 and has noticeably lost a step. He lacks scoring potential as he has just 6 TDs over his last 23 games which severely caps his upside. Andre Johnson received 58% of the teams targets which also played a role in his yardage total and 58% is an absurd amount. Which does bode well for his outlook however now the team finally has someone opposite Johnson that demands his share of targets as well in first round pick DeAndre Hopkins. That high volume will almost certainly decline putting a further damper on his 2013 numbers.

36. Rob Gronkowski - Dodged the pup list and appears headed for a late September return missing no more than 3 games. Gronk will be a monster point differential scorer with how weak TE is. He has an absurd 28 TDs over his last 27 games. Whenever he returns to full form this season with Brady he will be an absolute juggernaut.

TIER 13

37. Jordy Nelson - All systems go after his knee scope. According to FOX Sports Wisconsin, Jordy Nelson "didn't seem slowed whatsoever" in his return to practice following a knee scope. Nelson beat double coverage for an 85-yard touchdown pass, which got Aaron Rodgers excited. "He had to go about 50 yards to get that deep one in the air across the field," Rodgers said. A healthy Nelson means a healthy dose of deep balls thrown his way. read Rodgers above. He has 22 TDs over his last 28 games and averaged over 17 yards per catch over the last two seasons. Lots to like here.

38. Cecil Shorts - My favorite WR to own outside of Dez this year. Shorts posted a 979 7 line across 14 games last year which placed him 22nd at the position. More impressive was he did that behind shaky QB play and limited snaps due to a reserve role to start the season. Now heading into his 3rd year breakout campaign as the teams go to option Shorts is in for a big season. Gabbert has looked sharp and could easily rise from the bottom of the league to provide stable serviceable QB play. Couple that with the Jags likelihood of playing catch up in many of their games Justin Blackmon’s 4 game suspension and you have a target monster in the making. He's an incredibly talented and vastly underrated WR. a 1200 9 campaign is on the Horizon.  

39. Danny Amendola - Clicking with Brady as if they have played their whole careers together. Loads of potential filling the Welker role void in addition to the other passing game losses the pats have suffered. He carries a lot of injury risk but his ceiling sits in the top 10 at the position.

TIER 14

40. Peyton Manning - Posted a 4659 37 line last season with 9 300+ yard games and now has Welker at his disposal. The loss of Dumerville and suspension to Miller should make their defense much more vulnerable leading to more slack to be picked up by the offense. Its possible for Manning to approach 4800 and 40 this season.

TIER 15

41.  Chris Ivory -  Ivory has a career 5.1 ypc. He runs with a tenacity not often seen. Seemingly looking for contact. You will love the type of player he is. He truly does "leave it all on the field" Behind the jets underrated O-Line Ivory will be a solid RB2 even with just 15 carries a game, but as the season wears on if he stays healthy he will develop more into a low end RB1 with more touches. Mike Goodson is suspended 4 games and Bilal Powell is a mediocre talent who is of no threat to Ivory’s starting position. With all the uncertainties surrounding the Jets QB situation and WRs Ivory could be leaned on heavily. Health is the only thing that can hold him back.

42. Ryan Mathews - 2 years ago Mathews was an elite back. He totaled 1546 yards in just 14 games with 50 catches and a 4.9 ypc. He was incredibly explosive and ran with great strength and balance. He was decisive. Last season he was plagued by injuries but showed a certain complacency as a runner. He didn't display the same elite skills he did the prior year. Perhaps it was because of the injuries. This preseason he has proved to be the same back he was two seasons ago. Displaying great burst and running with power. Mathews has said the game is "slowing down for him" and it shows. He will lose 3rd down duties to Danny Woodhead but he is still more than capable of posting 1300-1400 total yards with 7-9 scores.

43. Matthew Stafford - Thrown for over 10,000 yards in his first two full seasons as a starter. On the most pass happy of teams in NFL history. Team has a vulnerable Defense providing ample shootout/catch up potential. Has the most dominant WR in football and now has Reggie Bush as a security blanket. What's not to like ?


44. Antonio Brown - After watching tape on Brown it's quite obvious that he is one of the most explosive WRs in the league. He can start and stop with the best of them, runs crisp routes, possesses great hands and has deceptive speed. He's taking over Mike Wallace’s "X" position and should serve as the teams primary deep threat, but Brown being no one trick pony has the makings of a true breakout as a complete WR and the teams number one option. Big Ben loves him "He can be as good as he wants to be... He's coming along as a number one guy" and so should you. He received over 8 targets per game last year should receive 10+ this season as the now number one option which is why I consider him a dark horse to lead the league in catches as a 100 catch candidate.

TIER 16

45. Darren McFadden - Annual IR trips, playing behind one of the leagues worst OLs on one of the most inept disastrous offenses and coming off a career low 3.3 ypc doesn't boast a whole lot of appeal. On the flip side he's still just 26, playing in a contract year and now will have a rushing QB under center which should help open up rushing lanes. He is a 3 down back and has goal line duties and the team is switching back to the power rushing scheme which he thrived in 2010-2011. There is some reason for optimism with Pryor under center. At least on paper the two look to be a lethal duo in the run game but the upside is likely capped due to a horrid defense and abysmal offense.

46. Vernon Davis - He appears locked in as a top 3 TE and should be getting pushed up everyone’s boards. Kaepernick began finding Davis often in the playoffs and the two look primed to become a lethal combo this season as they have already built up chemistry "seemingly unstoppable" is how CSN Bay Area's Matt Maiocco described their connection. With Crabtree out Davis is primed to step in as Kaepernick’s go to target. Davis is still one of the biggest match up nightmares for defenses and it appears his elite TE label will be resurrected.

47. Ahmad Bradshaw - Another regular injury risk but will produce nice RB2 totals when healthy. He will be a 3 down back for the Colts as the superior talent to Ballard as well as a far greater pass protector. Maybe you only get 12 games from Bradshaw this year but they will be mid-high RB2 numbers and as long as you handcuff him with Ballard who's serviceable you can deal with the low end RB2/high end RB3 totals he produces as a fill in. The Colts should be a highly efficient offense with top 5 potential and new OC Pep Hamilton will be installing many two TE formations to help boost the run game and provide balance.

48. Colin Kaepernick - Kaepernick lead the league in yards per attempt last season with 8.3. Finished in the top ten in passer rating at 98.3 and in the playoffs (biggest pressure situations) once again lead the league in yards per attempt at 10.0 had a passer rating over 100 and averaged 266 yards passing per game and 88 rushing. That would be 4256 yards passing and 1408 rushing over 16 games...... yeah the guy can play. He has the highest ceiling of any player in fantasy with his seemingly mythical skill set of Michael Vick legs with Peyton Manning arm. He trained with Olympic runners this offseason and has gotten even quicker and faster. That's scary to think about considering how lethal his athleticism already was. He has a laser for an arm with pinpoint accuracy to boot. Despite losing Crabtree Kaepernick has the potential to put it all together this year for a truly historic season.

49. Darren Sproles - Averaging 76 total yards per game with the Saints with 17 TDs in his 29 games with the team. Their defense is abysmal and Sean Payton is back. He's a consistent weekly scorer and a solid RB 2

50. Cam Newton - Top 5 fantasy QB each of his first two seasons but the Panthers have done next to nothing to put weapons around him which is why I don't see him making the leap past Manning Rodgers Brees and like the upside of Kaepernick and Stafford more.

TIER 17

51. Randall Cobb - Battled a mysterious biceps injury this preseason and the lingering effect is unknown which is why I have slid him down a bit in my rankings. The stable run game should also have a slight negative effect on his numbers too as the team will no longer need short quick passes to supplement a run game. He also had 5 games of under 40 yards last season which is also troublesome to me. Cobb is a definite playmaker and a nice WR2 for fantasy. I just don't know how much more he can do than an 1100/8 campaign.

52. Tom Brady - Has averaged 5031/36.5 the last two seasons adding an additional 7 rushing scores over that span. Yes he's lost weapons from those years but (the other guys) Amendola Thompkins and Vereen are more than capable of picking up the slack. His floor should sit around 4500/30. As sharp as he has looked this season I wouldn't bet against him.

53. Darryl Richardson - Potential 3 down workhorse for the Rams this season. Has great burst runs hard between the tackles and catches the ball well. He had a 4.8 ypc last year and the team acquired Jake Long in the offense which will only help open up rushing lanes for a back plenty capable of exploding through lanes for huge chunks of yards. As long as he can hold off Pead he will rush for over 1000 yards this season tacking on 300+ receiving with a handful of TDs.

TIER 18

54. Shane Vereen - One of the aspects of the Patriots that makes them so great offensively yearly is their ability to exploit mismatches better than anyone. Vereen will be the main executer of the mismatch exploitation this season. He will be used in a variety of ways as Hernandez was. In the backfield, out wide, in the slot, in motion and any placement where a LB will be lined up against him. Similar to Sproles, Vereen should total between 70-80 yards per game garnering weekly flex value with RB2 upside almost regardless of matchup. He could very well eclipse 1200 total yards tacking on 7+ scores

55. Marques Colston - A complete John Doe in preseason due to foot injury which he battled through last season with. Colston is an annual top 15 WR in the most lethal passing attack in football, but now 30 with a lingering injury his production might take a slight dip. He also had an alarming 13 games under 75 yards receiving last season. If not for a few monster games he would've been a complete dud last season.

56. Roddy White - No longer a target monster and now closing in on 32 with one of the leagues premier WRs in Julio Jones emerging to take more production away White is slipping in the ranks. Another item of note is that 33% of his fantasy total from last year came in just two games. He and Colston are viewed as safe solid consistent borderline WR1s but a closer look at their stats proves differently. They are aging mid level WR 2s with potential lingering issues. White is limping into the season after spraining his ankle and has yet to practice since. He's still expected to play week 1 but will he be 100% ? Probably not. We are looking at a 1200/6 line

TIER 19

57. Giovani Bernard - The fantasy community seems to expect Bernard to run away with the starting job. Bernard is far superior in talent but that doesn't always equate to a starting job or the lions share of the work. Look at LenDale White CJ2K Thomas Jones Jamaal Charles David Wilson Andre Brown last season. The Bengals are a more conservative team and could lean on the trusty veteran a frustrating amount. Rookie RBs also have a hard time in blitz pick up. A detail that left Lamar Miller and David Wilson from making major contributions as rookies last season. Even Richardson and Martin came off the field on 3rd downs. In theory Bernard will get 50% - 60% of the carries and play all passing down situations and be an every week RB2 but without any reports of him being able to pick up blitzes its hard for me to just assume he will fit that role given his size lack of hard nose style and the history of rookie backs struggles with pass protection. I view him more as a mere flex play for a large part of the early going.

58. DeSean Jackson - According to CSN Philly, DeSean Jackson is "catching everything" in Eagles camp and "appears rejuvenated" under Chip Kelly's staff. Chip Kelly appears to be rejuvenating a lot in Philly this season as Michael Vick has stated his renewed passion for the game. With Maclin out Jackson will be the focal point of the passing attack likely seeing a career high in targets despite a run heavy scheme. The up tempo run heavy scheme should set up explosive plays in the passing game playing to Jacksons strength. Vick looks sharp and the defense very vulnerable. Jackson could very well post career highs across the board this season.

59. Torrey Smith - Entering his 3rd season as the teams number one WR with a career yards per catch total over 17 and has a QB with one of the most lethal deep balls. Smith will have little trouble producing career totals in every category. His true upside will be determined by how complete a route runner he has become this offseason. If Smith can run a full route tree he will produce massive totals as Flaccos' go to guy.

60. Robert Griffin III - Number one Fantasy QB through Thanksgiving last year is all cleared to return week one. His rushing totals as you know are set to decline, but his passing totals will rise. RGIII isn't just a runner. He has elite passing skills finishing 5th in completion percentage, 4th in passer rating and 2nd in yards per attempt. He will have little trouble sitting in the pocket and picking a part defenses. No he won't rush for over 800 yards this season but he will eclipse 500 and throw for over 4000 with around 30 total TDs with upside for more if his knee grows stronger as the season goes on. He's locked into the top 8

TIER 20

61. Montee Ball - Although set for a committee Ball is hands down the Broncos best runner and could very well run away with the job this season. Last season both McGahee and Moreno finished in the top 15 in points per game for RBs. Hillman had 3 fumbles this preseason and doesn't project to be an early down runner. Ball should be in line for the majority of early down work and the goal line carries. An early season flex play turned late season upper RB2. Understand the value of getting redzone work in a Peyton Manning lead offense.

62. Dwayne Bowe - Bowe is a very curious case. On the one hand he is set to be the number one WR in a pass first offense. On the other his QB checks down more than an old lady at the poker table. Crabtree a similar style WR to Bowe had just 51 ypg with Smith under center last season but that was also behind a much more conservative attack than Andy Reids offense figures to be this season. Although an uncertain effect on his value I feel the two conflicting parts to Bowes 2013 season will balance out leaving him able as one of the games best after the catch receivers to sit between 1000-1100 yards with 7-8 TDs.

63. Andrew Luck - Historically QBs have their biggest statistical jumps from year one-two. Luck had a 4374/23 line with 255 rushing yards and 5 TDs on the ground. He was very inefficient as a rookie completing just 54% of his passes a number that should rise significantly this season. A year of growth plugged into Pep Hamiltons (his college coordinator) balanced offense a 4500 yard season with 25+ passing TDs is very possible and due to his athleticism he can add 250-300 yards on the ground with a 4-6 more scores.

TIER 21

64. Steve Smith - Aging yes, but really who else is Cam Newton going to throw to ? The Panthers are supposedly throwing out much of the zone read option and transitioning more into a spread attack. This should lead to more pass attempts by Cam and more targets for Smith. No reason he doesn't post similar yardage totals to last year if not more (1174) and improve upon his 4 TDs.

65. Mike Wallace - Contradictory to the reports of chemistry being off between he and Tannehill, their preseason continuity seemed just fine. I expect Tannehill and the Dolphin offense as a whole to take a leap forward this season and Wallace is far and away their best WR. Wallace was frustrated with Todd Haley's' transitioned offense to a short quick hit scheme limiting his deep routes and Big Ben missing 3 games didn't help either. Wallace is an elite deep threat and should return back to form this season.

TIER 22



 Player A receiving totals from weeks 13-17                       Player B receiving totals

week 13 - 51 yards receiving 0 TDs                                    100 yards 0 TDs

week 14 - 64 yards 1 TD                                                      50 yards 0TDs

week 15 - 14 yards 0TDs                                                     78 yards 1 TD

week 16 -  81 yards 1 TD                                                     34 yards 0 TDs

week 17 - 40 yards 0 TDs                                                    111 yards 1 TD

player A finished the last 5 weeks with 250 yards and 2 TDs while player B finishes with 373 yards and 2 TDs. So who are they ?

Player A Reggie Wayne and player B T.Y. Hilton. Sure Hilton is illogically slated for the number 3 job to start the season, but he is the teams most dynamic weapon and improved as the season went on out producing Wayne over the final 5 weeks of the season. Wayne will turn 35 this year and unquestionably lacks scoring potential which severely caps his upside. Hilton is only getting better and can score from anywhere. He has Desean Jacksons game breaking ability with Steve Smiths ball skills. The Colts will be hard pressed not to promote him over Heyward-Bey.

With that Being Said Here's number 66 Reggie Wayne

67. Eric Decker - Contract year in one of the most high scoring offenses with Peyton Manning tossing him passes. Will always be singled up opposite Demaryius Thomas and now with Welker running underneath. Sure there's a lot of mouths to feed and his TD total from last season (13) will come down but you still have to respect his ability as one of the games best number 2 WRs. another 1000 yard campaign is in store with 8-10 scores.

68. T.Y. Hilton - A truly dynamic playmaker should have little trouble taking over every snap duties. He's Randall Cobb lite Expect 1100 total yards and 7-8 scores.

69. Josh Gordon - A truly gifted WR and great downfield threat in a new Norv Turner run offense that revolves around downfield throws. After serving his 2 game suspension Gordon has the potential to take off and become a great WR2 this season. He explodes past corners consistently and in this offense has loads of upside. He and Weeden have looked sharp in the preseason and the Browns offense as a whole could be surprisingly dynamic with Richardson running the rock and Jordan Cameron wreaking havoc over the middle. Teams will have to load up the box to stop T-rich and given the attention Cameron will demand underneath Gordon should thrive.

70. Jordan Cameron - Much like Gordon is immensely talented and will find himself regularly in favorable match ups. He has a Jimmy Graham skill set which he showcased in his preseason debut with 2 TDs. His head coach is a former TE who has brought about career years for TEs in his system. The pass game could very well be run through Cameron. After Vernon Davis there's no TE I'd rather have than Cameron.

TIER 23

71. Hakeem Nicks - I wish I could have Nicks higher, but I just can't. He's looked fairly sluggish in his routes this preseason and.... well... Nicks has two hyperextended knees, a concussion, bruised ribs, groin tightness, a left foot sprain, a hip flexor, a broken big toe on his right foot, and six hamstring strains since getting drafted in 2009. So needless to say he's a pretty major injury risk and I just can't buy into his body holding up. The only reason for optimism is its a contract year for Nicks and he might be holding back to protect himself until the games matter. He's still just 25 and when healthy is an elite WR.

72. Chris Givens - Weeks 4-8 last year Givens had a historic stretch becoming the first WR in NFL history to catch a 50+ yard pass in 5 straight games. He is already an elite deep threat in the league and all reports suggest he has become a much more well rounded WR adding to his route tree. Givens will be the Rams number one WR and I believe the better fantasy bet over Tavon Austin. They are working on becoming more of a spread offense this season which should lead to more pass attempts and the addition of Jake Long protecting Bradfords' blind side should provide more time for Bradford to connect downfield. All adding to Givens' upside and fantasy outlook this season. Givens may very well be wildly inconsistent but he should produce some massive games to help win you weeks.

73. Kenbrell Thompkins - Has emerged from the depths of unknown UDFA status to locking down a starting role in one of the highest scoring potential positions in fantasy (Tom Brady's deep threat)

What hindered Brandon Lloyd and Chad Johnson from thriving in this role was their lack of grasp of the playbook and continuity in the offense. Thompkins seems to have both. He and Brady are in sync and appears to be one of Bradys' favorite targets as displayed this preseason especially in the opener where he was targeted on the first 4 passes catching all of them. If he continues to grow and gain more trust from Brady this season nothing will hold him back from reaching great heights. check here for analysis

74. Vincent Brown - Downtown Brown as I like to refer to him as has survived the preseason without a knee injury (seemingly an epidemic at chargers camp) and now is all systems go for his breakout campaign. In his first career NFL start Brown totaled 97 yards and a truly spectacular TD catch showcasing impeccable ball skills. He also just missed another score after it was overturned but the debut still vividly sits in my memory. In his short career Brown has displayed great concentration and awareness along with stellar strong hands enough speed to run past corners and he boasts the best ball skills of any of the breakout WR candidates this year. His 2012 season was robbed from due to an ankle he broke last preseason while hauling in a dazzling TD pass. Brown should have little trouble leading the team in receiving and as long as health cooperates a 1000 yard 7 TD season is more than reasonable to project. If you load up on other positions early in your draft feel comfortable with Brown as your WR 3. He has WR 2 upside.

TIER 24

75. Russell Wilson - There's no denying the loss of Harvin puts a damper on his fantasy prospects, but Wilson had a special Rookie season and when Seattle started to give him a little slack and open up the offense Wilson ran with the opportunity finishing as the number one QB over the final 5 weeks of the season. He finished 6th in yards per attempt 5th in passer rating and tied for 8th in completion percentage. He's a special talent. He could very well post 3500-3600 yards passing 25 TDs 500-600 rushing yards 4-6 scores.

TIER 25



76. Rashard Mendenhall - The loss of Jonathan Cooper definitely hurts and being in a pass first Bruce Arians offense isn't adding any appeal either. Mendenahall though, looked his old explosive self before suffer an injury this preseason. He is supposedly fine and set to start the regular season as the teams starting RB with little competition for carries as the team has been reportedly frustrated with Ryan Williams slow recovery this preseason. It's not an ideal situation but from what I saw in a small sample size from Mendenhall he should still be a great flex play in most match ups this season.

77. Wes Welker - Hard to expect the Patriot production to completely translate to mile high. Getting the ball to Thomas should be the main priority and Decker demands his fair share of passes too. Will still eclipse 900 yards and hover around the 1000 yard are but with only 5-6 scores. 

78. Matt Ryan - Coming off a career year I don't look for Ryan to continue to ascend and potentially fall back a little due to the offensive line woes. Already a mediocre group and just lost right tackle Tyson Clabo. He's more of a back end QB1.

79. James Jones - Lead the league is receiving TDs last year as the immensely talented wide out finally got the snap total he has deserved with Jennings out. He's the number one red zone target on what could very well be the leagues top offense in 2013. 14 TDs not repeatable ? Probably not but his yardage should be around 900 and could still easily eclipse double digit scores. 

TIER 26

80. Greg Jennings - Not a great fit in filling the Percy Harvin void but the only real receiving option on the outside. Not much upside, but should hold a relatively high floor with the lions share of targets in the Vikings offense. 900 yard floor 1100 yard upside but I wouldn't expect him to reach 1100 yards. Think more 950/7

81. Michael Vick - His passion for the game renewed, his comfort in the offense impregnable, his desire to be one of the games most feared offensive players again ? Insatiable. Chip Kelly's offense was made for Vick and it shows by his incredible preseason showing (28-38 383 yards 2 TDs 9 rushes 73 yards). He's in an uptempo offense with a horrid defense and is playing behind what is perhaps the best OL of his career. Vicks upside is mammoth.

82. Ben Tate - see Foster above. Very explosive and powerful runner. Tate could very well produce stand alone flex value if the Texans choose to implement more of a committee in hopes of keeping Foster fresh and healthy this season and there's no reason why they don't.

83.  Emmanuel Sanders - He looked great this preseason despite lack of production. He has snagged everything thrown his way fully stretching out to haul in passes up high. Sanders also seems to be very conscious of his impending UFA offseason leading me to believe he is quite money motivated. With the loss of Le'Veon Bell the Steelers will have to lean that much heavier on Big Bens arm adding to the prospects of Sanders. Sanders should be in line for 70+ catches putting him in the 1000 yard neighborhood with 5+ scores.

TIER 27

84. Golden Tate - Truly a unique talent. Always been a strong slippery runner, but this preseason appears to be very explosive and his top end speed seems to carry burner label. Tough to project his numbers due to the mystery of just how much Seattle will open it up this year but as Russell Wilsons go to guy and main deep threat he holds some serious potential.

85. Michael Floyd - I would be much more bullish on him if the Cardinals OL were able to give Palmer time to get the ball downfield to Floyd, the teams premier deep option in Bruce Arians areal attack offense. Still he's capable of posting a 900 7 line

86. Bernard Pierce - Earth shaking tenacity. Pierce is a very talented runner (4.9 ypc last yr). The Ravens are expected to revert back to a more run heavy approach with the loss of Pitta and departure of Boldin. With Ray rice expected to fill the passing void by lining up at WR while Pierce stays in the backfield his workload projection enters the 10-12 touch per game range and may gash tired defenses late as the Ravens closer.

87. Tavon Austin - Truly hellacious skills having a 300+ yard rushing and 300+ yard receiving game last year for West Virginia. He's a human joystick. I love his ability but his role in the offense is a major question mark. Perhaps the Rams have wanted to keep their use of him under wraps during the preseason to unleash him during the regular season but I can't fully buy into that theory. Still he has 1000 total yard upside.

TIER 28

88. Jason Witten - Annual 1000 yard pass catcher but lacks TD potential. TDs can be fluky however and reports of team putting more emphasis on him in the redzone this season slots him ahead of Tony G.

89. Tony Gonzales - The ageless wonder now 37 and coming off his best season since 2008 its hard to imagine he will repeat those numbers in 2013. Still with how weak TE is even a 850/7 season could crack the top 5 at the position.

89. DeAngelo Williams - Sure J-stew is on the pup but not much appeal in a 30 year old back with a 2.4 ypc in the preseason. Merely a flex play.

90. Tony Romo - Threw for over 4900 yards last season but the defense should be improved and the team philosophy should be much more balanced. Still, Romo has the chance become increasingly efficient in a more balanced attack and should lock him in as a back end QB1.

91. Greg Olsen - Number 6 fantasy TE last season and Cams only weapon outside of Steve Smith bodes well for him sustaining a top 8 finish at the position this season.

92. Jermichael Finley - In a contract year and has had a great preseason. One NFL scout told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that Jermichael Finley looks like "a go-to guy" in the Packers' 2013 offense.Immensely talented and in a high scoring offense the stars may very well finally align for Finley to breakout amongst the games elite TEs.

93. Stevie Johnson - A switch to a run heavy offense and a muddied QB situation definitely shoots the arrow downward on his fantasy appeal but with 3 straight 1000 yard seasons to his credit the fall won't be catastrophic.

TIER 29

94. Le'Veon Bell - Being out of his walking boot after just 9 days and the releasing of Jonathan Dwyer definitely bodes well for his outlook. Will be an RB2 when returns and that could be early October.

95. Mike Williams - More of a TD dependent performer and TDs are very tough to predict. Will total over 900 yards but he won't be that useful the weeks he doesn't score.

TIER 30

96. Ryan Broyles - Unfortunately sits behind Nate Burleson on the depth chart which caps his upside but should sit provide numerous WR 3 worthy performances on the most pass happy team in NFL history

97. Ruben Randle - Unfortunately behind Nicks and Cruz on the depth chart. Fortunately he is a well rounded WR with plus ball skills and great after the catch ability, as shown by his 3rd down conversion versus the Steelers this preseason, where he juked a screaming Ryan Clark en route to a big chunk of yardage from a bubble route. Nicks is an annual injury risk and Cruz although on track to start week one is just coming out of a walking boot. Randle is a must own for Nicks owners as a rare WR handcuff. He is a WR4 without an injury to Nicks or Cruz but becomes a WR 2 if he becomes a starter. (Check my 2012 evaluation of young WRs.)

98. Anquan Boldin - Will be 2nd in line for targets on a run first team. Kaepernick should help make him a start able fantasy commodity, but he is severely lacking in the upside department.

99. Kendall Hunter - HIGH priority handcuff. Sure Frank Gore seems ageless but all good things do come to an end eventually. Age and wear make Gore a plausible injury loss. Hunter is a MUST own for Gore owners. Back and fully healthy from last seasons injury, Hunter showed great burst on his first carry Sunday night versus the Vikings. He's an explosive runner who will be a High end RB 2 if Gore goes down. Could still total 900 yards and a handful of scores even in a reserve role.

100. Bryce Brown - Very talented runner as showcased filling in for an injured McCoy late last season. Gashing the Panthers and Cowboys for 178 yards 2 TDs and 169 yards 2 TDs out bursts. Run Heavy team will make him a Bye week flex play at the least with great upside if McCoy goes down.