Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Threes Please

With more and more Freakishly Athletic Vertical weapons entering the NFL every year and more Young Gun QBs with elite potential, Offensive philosophies are opening up. Making 3rd WRs fantasy relevant.

The ones to own:


 Danny Amendola STL - Yes, He's listed as the teams number one wide out, but the pride of Woodlands, Texas will do his damage from the Slot. Amendola quietly hauled in 85 catches last season. This year in the new Josh McDaniels Offense Danny will fit perfectly in the "Welker Role". He's not as strong or quite as fast as welker but his hands, quickness and route running is all the same. Here’s a sample http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kX6kAu7zQ4s
Amendola has a great chance to have a 100 catch season in this pass happy offense. If he can improve on his incredibly low 8.1 ypc to anything more respectable he's likely headed for a thousand yard season.

 Austin Collie IND - If he can avoid losing his head this season and Manning can step on the field soon Collie will produce and produce big. Remember he had 649 yards and 8 TDs in just 9 games last season with some of those being partial games. Collie is also entering his 3rd season in the NFL. There is a lot of uncertainty and risk buying into this situation at the moment but it is one that can pay off big.

Mike Sims-Walker STL- He's currently the teams 3rd WR, but that should be short lived. He has great breakout potential with the likelihood of being Bradford’s go to guy in a Josh McDaniels offense that turned NFL journeyman Brandon Lloyd into a 1448 yard 11 TD WR last season. That potential alone warrants everyone’s attention. He won't post numbers quite that big but he definitely stands a chance to produce 1000 yards and 7 TDs

 ones to take a chance on

Antonio Brown PIT - Coming on in the playoffs last year with his 58 yard helmet catch to set up the game winning TD in the divisional round and then the game sealing first down reception then next week to send his team to the Super Bowl. Brown Has built on that momentum and become a preseason sensation (9 catches for 230 yards and 3 TDs against first team defenses). Brown possesses great hands and game breaking after the catch skills.  He will enter the season as the Steelers 3rd WR, but could emerge as much more if aging Hines Ward falls off the shelf. Either way the second year wide receiver out of central Michigan will make his mark by make many big plays

 Harry Douglas ATL- Two years removed from an ACL tear, Douglas is finally 100% back. He has regained all his explosiveness that he had coming out of Louisville "shows good upper-body muscle definition...Has rare timed speed and sudden burst to stretch the defense, demonstrating the soft, natural hands..." -  NFL scouting report - His skills were put on full display with his 76 yard TD against the jags in week two of the preseason. With Atlanta airing it out much more this season and with Roddy White and Julio Jones demanding much defensive attention Douglas will have ample opportunity to make more big plays like this one http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_W7iVVRcyo

Denarius Moore OAK - Listed as the 3rd WR I fully expect Moore To supplant Darrius Heyward-Bust... I mean bay as a starting WR. Moore looks very similar to Mike Wallace. He’s yet another burner for the Raiders. Moore has earned raves at camp, said to be "not only the best WR on the team but the best player". If you're looking for this years Mike Williams (TB of course) you may not have to look any further than Denarius Moore. He and Jacoby Ford will be matchup nightmares for defenses as they both possess great speed and good ball skills. One of them if not both will breakout and have a very nice season. Moore will have a good impact in his rookie season either way.

ones to consider

Davone Bess MIA - Bess has Improved his catch yardage and TD totals every year of his career. He has some of the best hands in the NFL and is a great route runner. Bush may take some catches away from him but with him and Marshall requiring a lot of defensive attention Bess and his precise routes should thrive. With Miami becoming much more aggressive with their play calling this season their will be more balls to go around. Bess is someone who makes the most of his opportunities.

Lance Moore NO - Lace-alot is one of Drew Brees's favorites. He loves throwing to Moore on third downs and even near the goaline on quick slants and screens. Brees pleaded with the Saints organization to retain this FA WR and they did just that handing him a 5 year 20 million dollar deal. The saints do have a plethora of weapons and are likely to run the ball more this season but moore will still get his fair share of looks. If the shaky knees of Colston give him problems Moores production will shoot up largely as he will become a very enticing option.



ones to watch

Anthony Armstrong WAS - Big yards per catch guy with breakout potential

Earl Bennett CHI - A favorite of Cutler in the Mike Martz Offense

Titus Young DET - deep threat in a pass heavy offense. will get better as the season goes on

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

The Rise of McFadden

        3 years ago McFadden was selected 4th overall by the Oakland Raiders with aspirations of doing just what Adrian Peterson had done just one year earlier. Come in and be dominant right away. And why not, he was runner up for the Heisman back to back years making his Adrian Peterson expectations not so far fetched and even feasible. Week two of his rookie season he flashed his elite potential carrying the ball 21 times for 164 yards. Unfortunately he suffered a turf toe injury in that game which put a damper on the rest of his season limiting his explosiveness. Proclamations of good health and explosive preseason runs the following year lead to regained hype for Mcfadden. In 09 he showed little ability to shed tackles going down at the first sign of contact. He would suffer a knee injury week 4 that would knock him out until week 10 from game action, but he was never able to gain any momentum or tap into any of his vast potential (posted an anemic 3.4ypc)
           
        McFadden lost his starting spot to bruiser Michael Bush in the 2010 offseason. He was completely written off as an every down back in the NFL. His first two seasons had earned him the nickname "McFake" and "McFlop". McFadden was penciled in as the 3rd down back heading into the season when Michael Bush broke his thumb late in the preseason. Run DMC would once again start the season as the raiders starting RB, this time by default. Week 1 vs the Tennessee Titans McFadden carried the ball 18 times for 95 yards and added 6 catches for 55 more and a score. Not only showing up in the statline McFadden looked like a completely different player. He had good elusiveness, tackle breaking ability and all the burst he had flashed when healthy. The trend continued as Bush remained sidelined as he carried the ball 55 times for 250 yards over the next two weeks. As bush returned McFadden once again went down with injury knocking him out for 2 weeks. Uncertain if he would return week 7 against the Denver broncos (listed as questionable) many fantasy owners sheepishly left him on the bench as his role in the offense with a healthy Bush was up in the air as well. Not only did Dmac play against the broncos he owned them, totaling 165 yards on just 16 carries and 3 TDs. Adding 31 yards and another score receiving. The rest of the season McFadden continued to tap into his limitless potential ending the season with 1157 yards rushing with 7TDs and 507 yards receiving with another 3TDs in just 13 games (good enough for 2nd overall in Fantasy Points per game just behind Arian Foster among RBs). What changed to cause such a drastic change in production? First off McFadden has always had the talent to produce the video game like highlights that he did this past season. This year he played with a chip on his shoulder. All the talk of him being a bust motivated him to shed his bust label. When Hue Jackson came in as Offensive coordinator he went to McFadden and asked him what kind of plays he liked to run. He then switched the offensive Run style to a power run system as opposed to the zone scheme they had been running. McFaddens greatest asset is his explosiveness. It was tough to explode and get to full speed and your hesitant waiting for the play to develop. In the power running system he just gets the ball and goes and anytime he hits a crease, a house call usually follows. So what will he do for an encore?

Many doubt his ability to repeat last years production and he won’t. He won't repeat last years totals. He will exceed them. In 2011 McFadden has no ceiling of production. With Hue Jackson Running the offense McFadden will continue to get the ball again and again needing just one crease to take it the distance. He's not just your typical speed guy. He's incredibly strong and elusive. He gets better the more he gets the ball. Mcfadden averaged 7.2 yards per carry last year on carries 11-20. That’s right 7.2 yards per carry which beat out Jamaal Charles 6.5 for best in the league. McFadden will emerge as the best RB in the NFL this season.



Monday, August 29, 2011

A Whole New Bread Part 4

2011 Breakouts


TEs:

1. Jermichael Finley GB - Uncoverable - That’s what Finley is. No matter where he’s lined up or what defenders attempt to prevent him from hauling in a pass Finley snatches passes out of the air and comes down with them. The only thing that can slow him down is his unlucky streak of injuries. Already he has Guaranteed in camp this year "I play all 16 this year and I will revolutionize the TE position" Is that setting the bar maybe just a little too high? Absolutely NOT. Not with Finley. If his body can hold together he will likely go down as the greatest pass catching /playmaking TE in NFL history. He's just that good. Finley trimmed down 15 lbs this offseason to gain quickness and speed to allow him to stand up more this season as opposed to the traditional three point stance. The Packers have wisely eased Finley along thus far in preseason. When he has stepped on the field he’s clearly been Aaron Rodgers go to guy. In the GB offense and with Rodgers slinging him the ball there really isn’t any telling just how big a season he could have but it could be monstrous.

2. Jimmy Graham NO - As some of the greats before him (tony gonzales, Antonio Gates...) Graham is a former basketball star turned NFL TE. Standing 6'6" 250 lbs with 4.5 speed graham is an obvious matchup nightmare, A "Joker" TE. buried behind Jeremy Shockey for much of last year Grahams played sparingly until the end of the season where he and brees connected on 4 scores in the final 4 games of the season. His rapport with Brees has only grown as Brees has leaned heavily on graham in 3rd down situations in the preseason. Graham is not only a security blanket, but is also a downfield threat with his combination of size and speed and a lethal redzone target on one of the top offenses in the league. Grahams set up is perfect for success.

3. Jared Cook TEN - As mentioned before as a dark horse 1000 yard candidate Jared Cook is yet another Freak TE. Expected to be the Focal point of the passing attack this season for the titans. With all the uncertainty with the Titans two best players (britt and Johnson) Cook stands rock solid. Not your everyday TE, Cook is a physical Freak who catches everything thrown his way. As if quoted by preacher man himself Cook is fast.. He’s Big.. He’s Fast.. plus he’s Big. Cook Compares to Jermichael Finley and has even drawn comparisons by Steve Spurrier to a Mr. Calvin Johnson.  Cook is an uncoverable Target who will have a very productive season. He should end up between the 800-900 yard territory. The sky is the limit for Cook and If Britt misses extensive time due to suspension and or injury look for Cook to take full advantage of the added receiving load. He came on strong at the end of last yr with 196 yards in the final 3 games and He's already leading the team in catches in preseason.

4.  Lance Kendricks STL - Last season Sam Bradford Loved finding whatever rotational TE was in the game in the redzone. Kendricks has already been said to "play a significant role right off the bat" and said to be the "star of camp". Kendricks has put that on display with his preseason performance (8 catches 7 of which for first downs and 2 TDs) Kendricks was the highest rated TE in this years draft after Natural pass catcher Kyle Rudolph and thought to be the classes most complete TE. He's in an offense that will be pass heavy and he will be Very active in the redzone. Look for kendricks to jump on the scene his rookie season and produce. Somewhere in the 500-600 yard range with 6-7tds

other talents to watch for


Patriot TEs - Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez - Both great athletes in a great offense. They combined for over 1100 yards and 16 Tds as rookies last season. I just feel they should be mentioned.

Ben Watson CLE - Posted a very nice quiet season last year with the browns (68 catches for 763 yards). Impressive when the team itself didn’t even average 200 yards a game through the air. With the expected progression of Colt McCoy and improved offense Watson should only improve on his 10 totals. He will lose TDs to redzone vulture Evan Moore but the yards should be there.

Tony Moeaki KC- very talented TE entering his second season and his knees which have handicapped his athleticism are expected to be healthy. He’s expected to see an expanded role in a number of ways this season and is most certainly one to watch for.

Ed Dickson BAL - A very big athletic option for Joe Flacco who will press the seams of Defenses this season. Very capable of producing big plays and should consistently find himself in miss matches

Jermaine Gresham CIN - Very talented with a rookie QB. TEs are a rookie QBs best friend

Fred Davis WAS - Davis could emerge as a household name in 2011. He just needs to be given a chance. Chris Cooley being hampered by injury thus far might just be the opening he needs. When filling in for an injured Cooley in 09 he had a run of 5 TDs in 4 games.

A Whole New Bread Part 3

2011 Breakouts


WRS:

1. Dez Bryant DAL - Freak - thats the only way I know how to describe him. Dez was born to play WR. He has it all. Throw him the fade and watch him make a spectacular catch. Throw him a ten yard out and watch him break a tackle and take it to the house. He will go over the middle accelerating past many and stiff arming near by defenders to the ground. Hes a rare breed. His expected progression from last year to this looks a lot like Hakeem Nicks jump from his rookie season to last years. Nicks had 47 catches for 790 yards and 6 Tds in 14 games his rookie season. Dez posted 45 catches for 561 yards and 6 tds in 12 games ( he also missed camp due to injury stunting his rookie progression) Nicks entering last season as the number 2 to Steve Smiths more posession style exploded for 1052 yards and 11 tds in just 13 games emerging as not only the teams top wideout but one of the best in the NFL. Dez, now healthy and comfortable with the offense "(Missing camp was big," Bryant said. "I felt shaky. Now I'm more confident and a lot better than last year. ... I'm so excited. I can't wait to get on the field. I know the play book better. I was shy last year. Now its none of that. I feel good." ) should flat out dominate. Look at what Nicks did on a per game basis and thats what you can expect from Dez this season. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Big D but Feeding Bryant will lead to more wins and leave opposing coaches doing there best Alvin Gentry impersonation ( it didnt matter what he did there was just no stopping Kobe Bryant)

2. Mario Manningham NYG - Ok so maybe this is cheating considering he had 944 yards and 9 TDs last season. But part of the criteria I use defining breakouts is players yet to have a thousand yards or a 10 td season. Manningham just makes the cut. Uhh fun fact ya Mario Manningham has averaged 84.8 yards, and almost a TD per game in nine games missed by Hakeem Nicks and or Steve Smith the past two years (meaning he started) That projects to 1356 yards and 12 TDs over a full 16 games. Ohh Yeah and this season.... He's starting. Eli loves hooking up with manningham deep (he was second in the league in yards per target) but he also does much of his work on short passes and screens. Hes incredibly shifty, having the ability to make multiple defenders miss on any given play. He's also rumored to play the slot in three reciever sets this season which will only add to his catch total and solidify his floor of production. In the Jet Blue offense manningham will take his game to a new level in 2011.

3. Kenny Britt TEN - I believe Britt set a record this offseason. Many may say thats not a record you want (3 arrests in one offseason) but tell that too Happy Gilmore. And he went on to win a Green Jacket! Already been declared he wont be suspended for his "questionable" behavior we can simplify things. Kenny Britt is really good. He compares to Brandon Marshall on and off the field. A natural WR at 6'3" 215 and great after the catch ability as shown by his 18.5 yards per catch last season to go along with his 9 TDs in just 12 games. History shows that WRs tend to make big leaps in their 3rd season as a pro as displayed by Stevie Johnsons out of no where 1000 yard 10 TD breakout in 2010 (his 3rd season). Britt also plays in a division with mediocre defenses susceptible  to big plays. Britt will exploit these weaknesses time and time again leading to added production. Teamate Jared Cook is likely to draw sizebale attention over the middle and underneath leaving Britt to do Irreputable damage vertically. Flashes of this was on full display in his 7 catch 225 yard 3 TD out burst against the Eagles last year. A game in which he didnt even start. Kenny Britt will be a star in 2011.

4. Percy Harvin MIN - Another player entering his 3rd season and primed to breakout. Already been annointed as such by QB Donavan McNabb:  "there's no reason why Percy Harvin can't be a perennial Pro Bowler with 90-100 catches and over 1,000 yards." And there really isn't. With his migranes looking to be behind him, his trust worthy hands coupled with his game breaking skills make him lethal. He enters 2011 as the teams unquestioned number one Wide Out for the first time in his career with a QB on the decline, but still fully equipped with the attributes to take full advantage of Harvins skill set. If he can stay on the field all 16 games he will tally his first career 1000 yard season.

5. Marcus Easley BUF - Who? Its time to learn the name. Marcus Easley, former Uconn prospect, Is a 6'2" 220 lb reciever who as John Gruden would say "runs like a deer". He missed all of last season and much of camp this year due to knee injuries. He's healthy again and says he wants to make a "Blake Griffen like comback". Quite ambitious of the 23 year old, but with his talent and in Chan Gaileys Offense anything is possible. With Lee Evans gone via trade the door swung wide open for the youngster to make his way into the starting line up. In this past weeks preseason game, labled the week one "dress rehersal" Easley started oppositte of former breakout star Stevie Johnson. He totaled 51 yards and reeled in a nice leaping TD reception. With teams likley rolling coverages to Stevie Johnson this season Easley will be left matched up in one on one situations which given his size he should be able to take advantage of regularly. Look for Easley to bust onto the scene in 2011 on his quest for a "Blake Griffin like Comeback".

Friday, August 26, 2011

A Whole New Breed part 2

2011 Breakouts


RB's:

1. Shonn Greene NYJ - Michael Turner 2.0 - A physical, compact, explosive runner ready to be unleashed. He’s been a workhorse in Jet playoff games (6) over the last two years receiving 99 carries for 504 yards (a 5.1 ypc avg) That’s 84 yards rushing per game which projects to 1344 yards over a full 16 game slate. With the aging LT being reduced to a mere 3rd down role this season Shonn Greene and his "fresh legs" will be put to the test in 2011. He will be force fed the rock countless times a game. He gets stronger as the game goes on, wearing out opposing Defenses. He’s improved in the passing game (couldn’t of gotten worse however) and should no longer catch passes like Shaq makes free throws. Only adding to his production. If given 300+ carries ( and its very possible he will) Look for Greene to approach or even surpass 1500 yards with double digit scores.

2. Felix Jones DAL - Finally is free of Marion Barber and is thriving. He’s looked incredibly explosive thus far in preseason and is primed for a big season. When Jason Garrett took over last season Jones averaged 17 touches per game. In his career when Jones has received 17 touches or more he has NEVER had less than 84 yards. Jones enters 2011 as the unquestioned featured back and its already been declared by the coaching staff that his carries will not be limited. His upside is that of former razorback teammate Darren McFadden’s totals from last year (1600 total yards 10 TDs). If he can stay healthy there’s no doubt Jones will ascend to the upper echelon of the RB hierarchy in 2011

3. Tim Hightower WAS- "Hightower has shown outstanding speed, quickness and vision," "He attacks the line of scrimmage quickly, but also has enough patience to identify the soft spot of the defense." "He's a star" - Bucky Brooks former NFL scout --- Finally Hightower finds himself in a situation perfect for his skill set. Shanahan's zone blocking scheme will allow Hightower to thrive as shown with his preseason totals of 25 carries for 170 yards (6.8 ypc) including pair of runs over 35 yards.  He’s also an added asset in the passing game allowing him to stay on the field. He’s just a year removed from a 63 catch season. Shanahan is very unpredictable but with the brittle torrain and very green Roy Helu as his only competition hightower should have little problem holding onto his featured role. The featured RB job for shanahan is a guaranteed ticket to 1000 yards in an offense that appears to be much better than anticipated with Grossman looking very competent in delivering the ball downfield. So there should be more TD opportunities then one might think. Hightowers yardage totals should be more than enough for him to make his mark regardless of his trips to pay dirt.


4. Reggie Bush MIA - Bush has a lock on the starting RB job in Miami. He’s drastically outplayed Rookie rb Daniel Thomas. Bush is expected to receive 15+ touches a game this season in a variety of ways. Out of the backfield, out wide, in the slot. However Miami needs to use him to exploit opposing defenses they will. New Offense coordinator  Brian Daboll will revamp this very vanilla offense to one with many different looks including creative and well planned gadget plays many of which should involve Bush. Bush appears able to handle the between the tackle carries as he is running much harder and finishing runs. Bush has always been a playmaker. A new team and added role will give him one last chance to prove he’s "the guy". I look for him to take full advantage of his opportunity.

5. Chris "Beanie" Wells ARI - Wells has been held back by injuries thus far in his career. Now finally healthy and in great shape beanie is ready to shed his "weanie" ways. Having the confidence of his coach  (Declared by whisenhunt as "the guy" early in camp) The cardinals traded away Tim Hightower. Since then Rookie RB and only threat to wells workload has been lost for the year only further boosting his potential workload. The cardinals O-line is very weak but with 250+ carries on the horizon and a ypc of around 4.3 likely in store Beanie should have no problem eclipsing 1000 yards. He’s a good bet for 1300+ total yards and 6-8 tds


Honorable Mention - Knowshon Moreno DEN - Could set career totals in john fox's run heavy system and appears to be completely healthy


just missing the mark -

Ryan Matthews - it doesn’t appear norv turner is ready to fully unleash him

Jahvid Best - I don’t like assuming an injury is to come but with his size and already dealing with a concussion he’s unlikely to play a full season

A Whole New Breed

2011 Breakouts by Position


The QB's :

1. Matthew Stafford DET - Its simple. If Stafford stays healthy he will throw for over 3800 yards and 25 tds. Likely exceeding the 4000 yard mark and approach or even surpass 30 TD's. He's ultra talented with a plethora of weapons. He has one of the most physically gifted WR's the league has ever seen in Calvin Johnson. He has a great pass catcher out of the backfield in Jahvid Best who’s a threat to go the distance anytime he gets the ball in space. His arsenal is also equipped with a very nice possession receiver in Nate Burleson who dazzles with his acrobatic toe tapping catches. He has two very nice receiving TE's in Pettigrew and Schefler. Titus Young completes this extensive arsenal as a deep threat with game breaking skills. The Lions threw the ball as much as anyone last season. Their D-line will wreak havoc on opposing O-lines making it very difficult to be run on. Their secondary however is weak leaving the possibility off many aerial battles back and fourth. The Lions will be throwing early and often. They lack a bruiser in the backfield, A TD vulture. When in the redzone they will just continue to throw. The fade to Calvin is nearly uncoverable. Stafford knows he’s the missing piece to what completes an offensive juggernaut. He’s tired of letting his teammates down. He’s more motivated than ever. 2011 is the year the stafford and the lions will finally roar (pun intended) from a statistical standpoint.

2.  Sam Bradford STL - Bradford surprised many in his rookie season putting the rams within a game of a division crown. He some how was able to throw for over 3500 yards despite a league low in pass attempts over 20 yards. Sure Danny Amendola is a nice slot receiver but you cant dump it too him for 3-5 yards every drop back. In 2011 the offense will be looking deep a lot more often under Josh McDaniels. He loves airing it out and loves going long. No the rams don’t have a dominant receiving option, but they wont need one for bradford to post big numbers. Again he threw for over 3500 yards as a rookie in a conservative style offense with even less weapons to work with. The drafting of Lance Kendricks will provide a very nice security blanket and a go to guy near the goal line. The signing of Mike Sims-Walker who although inconsistent at times is a nice outside option. With Amendola in the "Welker role" the team already has enough pieces for McDaniels to work his magic. The rams still hold a wild card however - The talented but sadly snake bitten Danario Alexander. If he can ever get to 100% and stay that way over a large portion of the season Bradford will have a tremendous talent out wide morphing this offense into one that will give opposing Defensive Coordinators nightmares. Look for Bradford to take a big step this season with or without the services of Danario Alexander as the rams are likely to be in the top 5 in pass attempts.

3. Kevin Kolb ARI - As utterly abysmal as Cardinal QBs were last yr they still combined for 3247 yards. Compare that to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 3000 or Mark Sanchez's 3291 and Jay Cutlers 3274. This total was posted with a 51% completion rate. Kolb’s career completion rate is 61%. His increased passing efficiency likely pushes that yardage total over the 3500 mark. Likely to be increasingly pass heavy and playing in the kiddie pool of the NFL that is the NFC West Kolb will have ample opportunity to succeed. Who outside of Larry Fitzgerald will he connect with? Although he may indeed be looking to hook up with one of the NFL's finest early and often (who wouldn't) he will have solid secondary options in Andre Roberts Early Doucet and even Stephen Williams. He will also have Todd Heap as a security option. Through the small sample size that is Kolb’s game action his TE has been his best friend. Looking to hook up with former teammate Brent Celek often as an eagle. Look for Kolb to build a nice rapport early with his newly found weapon. Kolb has been dubbed the "next Aaron Rodgers" and the "next Matt Schaub" by others. Lets not get too ahead of ourselves here, he's not going to step in and lead the league in passing, but he will have a very productive season.

4. Chad Henne MIA - WHAT?! I know. I know. I have just lost ALL credibility with this one. No one seems to believe in Henne. Not even his own fans or perhaps in this case lynch mob (queue the we want Orton chants). I can assure you I have not recently exited a mental institution. In 2011 Henne has everything a QB needs to succeed. He has one of the best WRs in the NFL in Brandon Marshall. He has sticky mitts Davone Bess and underrated but reliable Brian Hartline all returning. In addition to that trio of wide outs Henne will have not only Rookie speed demon Clyde Gates (4.37 40 time) to open things up but he will have Reggie Bush as well. Bush hasn't lived up to the hype but he brings one major asset to the table. Mismatches. Bush will be a 1st down dynamo on 3rd downs. He’s someone you have to game plan for heavily. Even when he isn’t being given the ball he draws defensive attention creating openings for others. With all the attention that Bush and Marshall will demand Davone Bess will consistently get open. Hartline and gates will get down field in favorable matchups time and time again. The dolphins will be opening up the offense more Taking more chances and more shots downfield (dolphins had a league low 4 completions of 40 yards or more) giving Henne more opportunity to find and keep a rhythm. The dolphins know the only way to compete with the Patriots and Jets is to score. Entering his 3rd season as the starter Henne will be given every opportunity to succeed.

5. Colt McCoy CLE - Perhaps another head scratcher. McCoy showed a lot of poise and resilience in his rookie season even against the likes of the Steel Curtain Defense. McCoy averaged just under 200 yards a game last year. Not much to get excited about. However this total was posted in an overly conservative offense with perhaps the least talented supporting cast in the NFL. Enter Greg Little. The rookie wide out gives the browns a playmaker. He will develop into a go to guy at some point this season. He's been labeled "the real deal" by browns beat writers thus far in camp. The McCoy to Little combo will thrive under new head coach Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense. McCoy has built as nice connection with TE Evan Moore particularly in the redzone. Moore and Ben Watson will give McCoy big targets to find when he’s under pressure. The emergence of Jordon Norwood will provide a very nice quick strike option (you would be amazed at the difference completing a 3 yard pass is over taking a 5 yard sack). Then there’s Josh Cribbs. No he hasn't been a very productive WR but he’s a tremendous athlete. Ohhh yeah, He's also a little upset about the NFL's new kick off rule. You wont like Cribbs when he’s angry. He will be looking for a house call every time he touches the ball on offense. No McCoy won't be contending for league MVP nor will he make the Probowl but he’s a sneaky 3500 yard 20 TD candidate.



* note - Matt Ryan doesn’t count as a "breakout" player despite his expected progression and change in offensive philosophy. Anyone who throws for over 3700 yards and posts a 28-9 TD:INT ratio has already broken out.

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

The Side Kicks

Everyone Expects 1000 yard campaigns from the household names of Andre Johnson, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Reggie Wayne ect. Here’s a look at forgotten or overlooked pass catchers with shots to eclipse 1000 yards


2011 1000 yard Darkhorse Candidates

Andre Roberts ARI - With Larry Fitzgerald demanding consistent double and even triple teams Roberts will be left with numerous opportunities to exploit coverage’s given to him. Arizona’s weak O-line, mediocrity on Defense will likely result in a very pass happy system, Using more 3 and 4 receiver sets along with quick passes as a substitute for a Running game. Roberts is favorably comparable to the Jags Mike Thomas who exceeded 800 yds last season with an Inferior QB and much more conservative offense. If things fall into place this season and with a bit of luck Roberts just might find himself in the 1000 yard club.

Nate Burleson DET - motivated by the drafting of Titus Young Burleson worked especially hard this offseason. Its shown with two highlight TDs in the first half of preseason.  Playing Robin to Calvin Johnsons Batman this year Burleson too will receive many favorable matchups on perhaps the team that will lead the league in pass attempts. In the two games Stafford returned to play midseason He and Burleson hooked up 14 times for 160 yards and a score. Couple that with the rapport the two seem to have this preseason and you have the makings of not one but two 1000 yard receivers in Motown this year.

Lee Evans BAL- Evans has spent the last two seasons wasting away in Buffalo. Not really being considered a threat since his days with JP Losman of all people. If Losman had good enough attributes to make Evans a thousand yard man then why not Joe Flacco? Evans has spent his career as a premier deep threat who has been handicapped by weak armed and lackluster QBs. Enter Joe Flacco. No not a perenial probowler by any means but flacco is one of the best in the biz at one thing. The deep ball. The Flacco-Evans combo is a match made in heaven as these two compliment each other to perfection. Yes the ravens will be run heavy and yes he will be the second option behind Anquan Boldin. Boldin, however is getting up their in football years seems to have his explosiveness that made him so feared - deteriorating. Boldin will do most of his work this season underneath and over the middle. As for the run game I believe it only helps Lee Evans as he helps it. As the run game goes so does he. Defenses will be forced to bring more men in the box leaving themselves vulnerable to plays deep. If Evans can just haul in 60-65 passes this year there is no reason he shouldn’t eclipse the 1000 yard plateau.

Johnny Knox CHI - With the addition of Roy Williams and camp reports of Hester "being the best wr in camp" Knox has fallen off the radar. Many seem to forget that despite being on the team with a league low in pass attempts Knox posted 960 yards. Year two in the Martz system should consist of utilizing more pages in the mad geniuses Harry Potter sized playbook. If you still believe in Roy Williams all I can say is.... don't. Having any kind of expectations for the former cowboy will only lead to disappointment. Hester seemingly always draws buzz during camp and maybe this is the year he finally breaks out and morphs into an actual WR as opposed to just an athlete. My money however is on Knox to rise to the top as Cutlers number one option yet again. We all know what being the number 1 WR in a mike martz system can lead too. Lots and lots of big plays.

Greg Little CLE - That’s right. A Browns WR. The young Browns Offense is one on the rise and one to watch in the future. It appears as though the coaching that none other than Brett Favre did with Colt McCoy has molded the young gun into quite the leader of the West Coast offense as shown with his 3 td outburst in last weeks preseason game. For McCoy and the browns to have any kind of chance at something more than mediocrity this year the talents of Greg Little will need to be relied on heavily for explosive plays. Little has been labeled the "perfect fit for Pat Shurmers Offense". His physicality and supreme athleticism should provide many big plays over the middle. Even on simple drag patterns. Little may be a highly inexperienced WR (only one collegiate season as a pass catcher) but don’t count this guy out. He’s definitley one to watch in 2011.

Mike Sims-Walker STL - playing in a Josh McDaniel offense with a competent QB is a good start. Reports are Sims-Walker has Built a nice rapport with Bradford and is "catching everything". Someone will have to step up and make plays downfield for this offense to roll. Perhaps its Brandon Gibson, or maybe its Danario Alexander. Alexander would be on this list if not for him being a serious knee injury waiting to happen. Someone has to step up and demand a heavy load of Targets. Sims-Walker is the most likely candidate. When Healthy the Hyphen man has proved to be a very reliable target. Hauling in 7tds in consecutive seasons. His in a favorable situation. Time will tell if he will truly thrive in his new home.

Jared Cook TEN - Expected to be the Focal point of the passing attack this season for the titans. With all the uncertainty with the Titans two best players (britt and Johnson) Cook stands rock solid. Not your everyday TE, Cook is a physical Freak who catches everything thrown his way. As if quoted by preacher man himself Cook is fast.. He’s Big.. He’s Fast.. and he’s Big. Cook Compares to Jermichael Finley and has even drawn comparisons by Steve Spurrier to a Mr. Calvin Johnson. Whether or not teammate Kenny Britt gets slapped with a suspension Cook is an uncoverable Target who will have a very productive season. In all Likelihood he’s headed for an 800ish yard season, but the sky is the limit for Cook and If Britt misses extensive time due to suspension and or injury look for Cook to take full advantage of the added receiving load.

Honorable Mentions

Robert Meachem

Jacoby Ford

Michael Crabtree

Mike Thomas (Only the possibility of Blaine Gabbert Under center knocks Thomas off the main list)

Thursday, August 18, 2011

The Boys of Summer

This is dedicated not to the stars of the NFL but to the players whose 15 minutes of fame in 2011 will most likely be from Training Camp buzz and the Preseason. Most buried deep in Augusts Depth charts who emerge under the lights that shine onto the games that "don't count". They don't count on teams Official win-loss record but to a select group of players, those August games may be their last chance at gridiron glory, perhaps their first and only chance to make a name for themselves at the games highest level. For every Stevie Johnson regular season breakout there’s a Victor Cruz show on a warm August night.

Here’s a breakdown of this years Boys of summer.



Chad Spann Undrafted FA RB from Northern Illinois University

Finds himself in a favorable situation, Picked up by the colts who have limited talent at the RB position after Addai. Spann has good burst, adequate speed and power. He also plays with the heart of a lion. He’s relentless on the field. In a battle for a roster spot Spann will look to make his mark in the return game where the colts are also thin. Colts owner Jim Isray has already made it known that drafted or not talent will win out. Bad news for 4th rd pick delone carter? Possibly. It at least bodes well for Spann.
Check out the little engine that could here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1o4pIH0wx6Q&feature=related

Armond Smith Undrafted FA RB Union College

Blessed with elite speed and quickness even at the NFL level this former track star should make a name for himself this preseason. He’s already been cited as "turning heads with his blazing speed and quickness" by browns beat writer Steve Doerschuk. Hes the Perfect compliment to the smash mouth running style of Hillis and hardesty. His speed alone should land him a roster spot. His preseason play could earn him much much more. If he can prove dependable as a pass blocker there’s no reason he can't leap brandon jackson as the teams primary 3rd down back.

check out his highschool practice type highlight tape here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d4hjzxsfyUk


Darren Evans FA RB Virginia Tech

Will be competing with fellow UDFA rookie RB chad spann for a roster spot. Evans has the lead on not only a roster spot but perhaps playing time as well behind Addai in the explosive colts offense. There are already whispers of the teams preference to him above fellow rookie back Delone Carter. The 6ft 225lb RB is an ideal power back who looks to be a force around the goaline. Many forget that it was Evans not Ryan Williams who lead the Hokies in rushing last yr. Gifted with good power, vision and balance Darren Evans is certainly one to keep tabs on. Quick look at him here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E2CdtcW3J7w

Johnny White RB 5th rd pick North Carolina

Drafted by the Bills as the potential short yardage back and possible workhorse of the future. He will bring much needed depth to a mediocre group. A Tim Hightower clone Johnny White is a solid all around back with pass catching skills to go along with his power back build. Already one of the early surprises in camp, Look for white to make an impact sooner rather than later. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vXFjO_tPQG0

Denarius Moore WR 5th rd pick Tennessee

Not just your typical speed guy that the Raiders get annually. Moore has the looks of a poor mans Mike Wallace, but the potential for much "moore" (pun intended). He’s the talk of raiders camp early on. Said to be "outshining every receiver". Sure you could argue that isn’t hard to do considering that cast of misfit burners, but that group includes breakout candidate Jacoby Ford who appeared primed for a big role this season. I look for Moore to land a starting spot opposite Ford week 1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AinMXfB3fyM

Jamie Harper RB 5th rd pick Clemson

Harper could quickly become a household name if Chris Johnson and the titans organization end there game of chicken. Harper is not only a future TD vulture but an excellent 3rd down back as well. Chris Johnsons is far to valuable to have his effectiveness and career shortened by such a heavy workload as the one he has had the last two seasons. The Titans know this. Harper will get his fair share of carries moving forward. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CprghseCTe8

Marcus Easly WR Buffallo Bills

Easly missed all of his rookie season due to a knee injury. Knee injuries again have kept him out of practices thus far. The dealing away of Lee Evans leads a starting WR position up for grabs. Easly is 6'2" 225lbs with 4.4 speed. If he can get healthy there’s still a window, although rapidly closing, for him to make a play at that starting gig.


Josh Portis QB UDFA Seattle

In the Seahawks first preseason game, Portis went 5-for6 for 69 yards and the game tying touchdown as well as the oh so very important winning touchdown drive. If you watched the game then it didn’t take you long to notice that Portis although playing against less talented units outplayed starting QB Tavarius Jackson and it wasn’t really even close. It was only one game and a preseason one at that but if this becomes a trend you could see Portis and not jackson under center for the seahawks in 2011.

Dorin Dickerson WR 7th rd pick Pitt

Currently sitting at 4th on the Houston depth chart Dickerson isn’t all too far away from significant playing time. Keep in mind only Jacoby Jones and Kevin Walter stand in his way. With 4.4 speed and a 43 inch vertical to go along with his 6'2" 230lb frame Dickerson has the makings of a future star opposite Andre Johnson. How soon that happens could depend heavily on his play this preseason.