After being overwhelmed with excitement from the NFL Combine I put together an early March mock draft. I only released the first 12 picks as sort of a teaser. So I guess we will call this one Mock Draft 1.5.
First we begin by editing who has the number 1 pick. Instead of projecting a trade with the Colts I now know that pick has been dealt to the Panthers. My initial thoughts were the Panthers would move up to 5 to land combine darling Anthony Richardson. Now that they have moved up to numero uno they seem primed to take CJ Stroud. What if they loved all three of Young, Stroud and Richardson? You could move back to 4 and let the Colts have their pick of the litter. Doing so would open the door for someone like the Raiders to move up to 3 and crash your party. Do you take your chances ? What if there was another option ? Remember when the then San Diego Chargers drafted Eli Manning at 1 then waited for the Giants to be on the clock before making a trade ? Why not try to do the same thing ? Let's dive in.
1. Panthers - CJ Stroud
This is reading the tea leaves and connecting dots. Stroud is now the betting favorite to end up as the 1st overall pick. The Panthers made this move after Stroud put on an absolute clinic at the combine. A stage Bryce Young didn't compete on and Josh McCown, the Panthers QB coach loves Stroud for what that's worth. Whether he goes number 1 or 2 he is worth the shot. The man is silky-smooth. He throws the ball effortlessly and with pristine accuracy (69.3 career completion %). He consistently hits his WRs in stride and throws away from defenders to give his guys every opportunity to make plays after the catch. His effectiveness as a runner is a major question and amplified further by his unwillingness to run the 40. He's still the most polished passer in this class and a slam dunk top 5 pick with franchise altering upside.
2. Texans - Bryce Young
Rejoice . I know a lot of Texans fans want Bryce Young and all signs point to that once pipe dream coming to fruition after the Panthers trade. Young is a special talent and potential franchise changer. The concerns of his size were quelled a bit by his 204 lb combine weigh in. He's locked in to the top 2 spots.
3. Cardinals - Will Anderson
After losing Chandler Jones and JJ Watt in back to back off-seasons this is the perfect opportunity for the Cardinals to reload the edge. Anderson is seen by most as the top edge prospect in the draft. I am in the minority disagreeing with that assessment but right now he's the most likely candidate for the 3rd overall selection.
4. Colts - Anthony Richardson
There could be a handful of teams trying to move up to 3 to select Anthony Richardson. I think the Cardinals would have to be blown away to move down as they are in position to take whoever they view as the drafts top defensive player. Fresh off one of the greatest combine performances of all time AR15 looks primed to crack the top 5. His throwing portion of the combine was uneven, but partially due to Stroud throwing flawlessly after him in every drill. His elite athleticism should trump those concerns. The only question to me is if he stays with the Colts or if we see a draft day swap and his talents plus picks head to Carolina in exchange for CJ Stroud. Crazy to trade up to number one only to essentially trade back down? Perhaps, but the Panthers supporting cast is about as bleak as it gets. Richardsons elite athleticism can make up for that.
5. Seahawks - Jalen Carter
At one point do you stop the slide and take the best defensive player in the draft if not the best overall player? I think Pete Carrol is just the man for Carter despite the off field and pro day concerns.
6. Lions - Devon Witherspoon
After Christian Gonzalez just crushed the combine it's possible he gets the nod for first corner off the board. Witherspoon is still my number 1 corner. The passer rating on targets his way was just 25.3.... 25.3 on 62 targets. His plays in the run game and tenacity attacking short passes just scream a Dan Campbell guy.
7. Raiders - Will Levis
With Anthony Richardson off the board Will Levis is the last remaining QB that projects as a top 10 pick. His throwing performance at the combine was uneven at best, but the Raiders don't have much of a choice. McDaniels has to swing. Even if they land Jimmy Garoppolo they still likely look to draft a QB with their first pick.
8. Falcons - Tyree Wilson
The Falcons need a lot. It's possible they look to trade down if 4 QBs are already off the board. I'm going to assume they keep the pick for now and slot Wilson in to give them much needed pass rush juice after generating just 21 sacks last season (2nd worst). Wilson can be slow off the snap at times, but his rush generates some serious heat. Prime examples Here.
9. Bears - Christian Gonzalez
Here are some Bears defensive stats from last season: league lowest 20 sacks and 43 QB hits. 94.4 opponent passer rating (7th worst) opponent completion % 67.2 (5th worst) Y/A 8.0 LEAGUE WORST! They desperately need pass rushers. With Wilson and Carter off the board I believe they can pivot to the secondary. Christian Gonzalez is 6'1" 197 and ran a 4.38 forty with a 41.5 vertical. He projects as a shutdown corner and that is a highly sought after commodity. Surely he can help improve on those numbers.
10. Eagles - Bijan Robinson
The Eagles have such a luxury here. They don't really have any holes. They won the NFC with ease and now they have 2 first round picks including this 10th overall selection. It does feel a bit rich for Bijan here especially with how deep this RB class is, but if the Eagles don't think he will be around at 30 they might just take the plunge and upgrade an already lethal rushing attack.
11. Titans - Peter Skoronski
The Titans are in trouble. Rebuild ? Reload ? Mike Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the league and I'm sure wants to figure out a way to reload, but I don't see a path for that. Their best player is fighting father time and their QB1 is pretty lame. They just released Taylor Lewan so no matter what they decide they are going to need to upgrade their OL. Skoronski strikes me as a Vrabel guy.
12. Texans - Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Does Demeco Ryans go defense here? Probably, but wouldn't it be more fun to pair Bryce Young with a talented WR? JSN is an elite route runner. Just ask Steve Smith Sr! He claims Njigba has a PHD in route running. He seperates with ease and despite the concerns about his speed he is dangerous after the catch. He posted some of the best agility numbers at the combine over the last 15 years and is sure to have his stock climb as we approach the Draft.
13. *TRADE* Packers - Jordan Addison
I think it's actually happening Jets fans. Following the Brett Favre blue print it appears Mr. Rodgers is coming to your neighborhood. It's a bit early to have any idea what the 2023 Packers are going to look like, but it appears they are ready for Love. Will they be looking in all the wrong places with Rodgers gone? Only time will tell, but I personally would find great irony in them finally taking a WR round 1 in their first season without Rodgers. Seems fitting and would fill what is still a large void especially with Allen Lazard likely to be wooed to another team in Free Agency. Addison would compliment Watson really well as a much more polished route runner.
14. Patriots - Lukas Van Ness
Aside from the fact Dupree would approve of him he's 6'5" 272 running 4.58 and nicknamed Hercules. LVN is one of the top edge prospects in the draft. Watch an example here of him getting down the line and exploding up the field. With zero playoff wins sans Brady Coach Belicheck may just look to the Greek Gods for help. He also blocked 2 punts and we all know Bill loves his special teams.
15. Packers - Nolan Smith
The Packers are another team in serious need of pass rushing juice. Is 15 too high for Nolan Smith ? Is this an overreaction to his other worldy combine performance? Perhaps, but fortune favors the brave. After running 4.38 and adding a vertical of 41.5 I think it is infact worth the risk at 15.
16. *TRADE* Chiefs - Quentin Johnston
With Frank Clark out the door KC is going to have to address the edge but this class is deep. Last off-season KC traded away Tyreek Hill and their offense didn't skip a beat. However, their deep strikes weren't there. With extra picks I think the Cheifs will aggressively target a downfiled threat for Mahomes. Johnston averaged 17.8 ypc last season. Would be a perfect fit.
17. Steelers - Joey Porter Jr
Jordan Addison and Njigba are off the board. 2 of the 3 top corners are off the board. Only one thing to say. Bring him home. Not just because of his family ties to the burgh and not just because he would fill a need. Jr is a 6'2 1/2" corner that just ran 4.46. He only surrendered 143 yards last season. He projects to be a press corner with shut down label potential. Bring him home.
18. Lions - Calijah Kancey
More beef for Dan Campbells defense. Kancey blazed a 4.67 forty at the combine. There's concerns about his arm length and ability to fight double teams, but his college production (30 hurries and 8 sacks) lined up with elite combine metrics. He received a grade of 91.8 from PFF. He's worth the risk of run game liability if he can generate pressure up the middle with Hutchinson attacking from the edge.
19. Bucs - Bryan Bresee
Do the Bucs have any idea what their QB situation is going to look like in the post Brady era ? Are they serious about Trask ? Will famous Jamies Winston return to save the franchise? While that's getting resolved I'm going to go ahead and slot Bryan Bresee here. The Bucs gave up 4.5 ypc last season which is unacceptable with Vita Vea. They could use the extra help. Bresee can play NT, three-technique and even edge if needed. His versatility and strong presence in the run game can bring the bucs D-Line back to glory.
20. Seahawks - O'Cyrus Torrence
Perhaps a bit rich here, but Gabe Jackson is on the wrong side of 30 and only received a grade of 55 by PFF last season. Upgrading the guard position could make Kenneth Walker and the run game down right scary. Not to mention Torrence didn't allow a single hit on his QB last season. Editor note Gabe Jackson has been cut. I think we were on to something
21. Chargers - Paris Johnson Jr
I think the Chargers could definitely look to bring in another playmaker at WR. They might not think Zay Flowers gives enough diversity from Keenan Allen to take the plunge. They have gone OL the last 2 drafts in round 1 so why not 3 in a row and upgrade their right tackle position? Paris played both right guard and left tackle in college and seems both versatile and willing to play any spot when called upon.
22. Ravens - Myles Murphy
What will the Ravens do ? The only thing I can say for sure that they will or won't do is that they will not be giving Lamar Jackson a fully guaranteed contract. I'm sure they would love to leap ahead of the Steelers and take a corner, but unfortunately they don't really have the ammo. Murphy is one of the highest ranked pass rushers in this class. He didn't compete at the combine aside from the bench press, but he shows good athleticism on film. Here he chases down Zay Flowers.
23. Vikings - Deonte Banks
Without a 2nd round pick and with needs at multiple defensive positions along with needing a replacement for Adam Thielen the Vikings are a prime trade down candidate. Without a partner that makes sense currently I pencil in Banks. 6'0" 197 lb corner that blazed a 4.35 forty and impressed with his 42" vertical. Banks wasn't the most productive of college corners but his athleticism profile has the looks of a first round talent. He likely won't need to be too productive in year one to help upgrade a secondary that gave up the 2nd most passing yards and 3rd most Y/A.
24. Jags - Dawand Jones
Both tackles for the Jags were underwhelming last year. Both receiving grades of 61 or less by PFF. Jones gave up exactly zero sacks and zero QB hits last season. At 6'8" 374 lbs Jones is a mountain. His lateral ability is a question mark by some, but he performed more than adequately in combine drills. The big thing that stands out to me after watching some of his film is the defenders seem to immediately hit the ground every time he down blocks. He's called big Thanos by some, but this guy should be nicknamed IHOP
25. Giants - Zay Flowers
The Giants have to take a WR round 1 right? They just gave Daniel Jones a 160 million dollar contract. He's going to need weapons to throw to. Zay is a dynamic playmaker and pristine route runner. Just listen to Steve Smith talk about him. Zay Flowers might just be baby AB. He would agree with you too calling himself a combination of Steve Smith and AB.
26. Cowboys - Michael Mayer
With Dalton Schultz likely gone the Cowboys are going to have a pretty large void to fill. Rumors are they are looking for another WR, but Michael Gallup should be much more productive this season being over a year removed from his ACL tear. Schultz served as a great security blanket for Dak and Mayer would do more than fill those shoes. He can shake defenders and make difficult catches in traffic.
27. Bills - Brian Branch
The Bills are in cap trouble and very unlikely to be able to afford to bring back Jordan Poyer. Brian Branch is the top safety in the class with an overall grade of 89.5 by PFF. He would fill a huge void in the Bills secondary.
28. Bengals - Darnell Wright
Film of Wright neutralizing Will Anderson (gave up zero pressures) has made it's waves which shines more light on a talented player. He performed well at the combine and gave up zero sacks last season. Would be a welcomed addition by Joe Burrow.
29. Saints - Will Mcdonald
Marcus Davenport is set to be a FA and the Saints are unlikely to bring back his services being well over the cap as it is. Mcdonald is an athlete and profiles as one of the drafts best pass rushing prospects. Would slide right into the starting line up day one for the Saints.
30. Eagles - Emmanuel Forbes
The Eagles have granted big play Slay permission to seek a trade. This all but certainly spells his end in an Eagles uniform. Philly can fill that void immediately with Forbes. His size is highly scrutinized but when production meets athleticism you simply can't ignore it. Forbes had 6 INTs and surrendered a passer rating of just 44.7 last season en route to a grade of 87.2 by PFF. He registered 6 pick sixes in his college career . That's an FBS record. Then for an encore went to the combine and posted a 4.35 forty and 37.5 in vert. Forbes is one of my favorite prospects in the entire class.
31. Commanders - Jack Campbell
Campbell graded out at 91.7 by PFF then lit up the combine. Campbell posted the top 3 cone and shuttle times out of all LBs in addition to a 4.65 forty and 37.5 in vertical. For 6'5" 250 lb Jack can really move and should be one of the biggest risers since the combine.
