Friday, August 26, 2011

A Whole New Breed

2011 Breakouts by Position


The QB's :

1. Matthew Stafford DET - Its simple. If Stafford stays healthy he will throw for over 3800 yards and 25 tds. Likely exceeding the 4000 yard mark and approach or even surpass 30 TD's. He's ultra talented with a plethora of weapons. He has one of the most physically gifted WR's the league has ever seen in Calvin Johnson. He has a great pass catcher out of the backfield in Jahvid Best who’s a threat to go the distance anytime he gets the ball in space. His arsenal is also equipped with a very nice possession receiver in Nate Burleson who dazzles with his acrobatic toe tapping catches. He has two very nice receiving TE's in Pettigrew and Schefler. Titus Young completes this extensive arsenal as a deep threat with game breaking skills. The Lions threw the ball as much as anyone last season. Their D-line will wreak havoc on opposing O-lines making it very difficult to be run on. Their secondary however is weak leaving the possibility off many aerial battles back and fourth. The Lions will be throwing early and often. They lack a bruiser in the backfield, A TD vulture. When in the redzone they will just continue to throw. The fade to Calvin is nearly uncoverable. Stafford knows he’s the missing piece to what completes an offensive juggernaut. He’s tired of letting his teammates down. He’s more motivated than ever. 2011 is the year the stafford and the lions will finally roar (pun intended) from a statistical standpoint.

2.  Sam Bradford STL - Bradford surprised many in his rookie season putting the rams within a game of a division crown. He some how was able to throw for over 3500 yards despite a league low in pass attempts over 20 yards. Sure Danny Amendola is a nice slot receiver but you cant dump it too him for 3-5 yards every drop back. In 2011 the offense will be looking deep a lot more often under Josh McDaniels. He loves airing it out and loves going long. No the rams don’t have a dominant receiving option, but they wont need one for bradford to post big numbers. Again he threw for over 3500 yards as a rookie in a conservative style offense with even less weapons to work with. The drafting of Lance Kendricks will provide a very nice security blanket and a go to guy near the goal line. The signing of Mike Sims-Walker who although inconsistent at times is a nice outside option. With Amendola in the "Welker role" the team already has enough pieces for McDaniels to work his magic. The rams still hold a wild card however - The talented but sadly snake bitten Danario Alexander. If he can ever get to 100% and stay that way over a large portion of the season Bradford will have a tremendous talent out wide morphing this offense into one that will give opposing Defensive Coordinators nightmares. Look for Bradford to take a big step this season with or without the services of Danario Alexander as the rams are likely to be in the top 5 in pass attempts.

3. Kevin Kolb ARI - As utterly abysmal as Cardinal QBs were last yr they still combined for 3247 yards. Compare that to Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 3000 or Mark Sanchez's 3291 and Jay Cutlers 3274. This total was posted with a 51% completion rate. Kolb’s career completion rate is 61%. His increased passing efficiency likely pushes that yardage total over the 3500 mark. Likely to be increasingly pass heavy and playing in the kiddie pool of the NFL that is the NFC West Kolb will have ample opportunity to succeed. Who outside of Larry Fitzgerald will he connect with? Although he may indeed be looking to hook up with one of the NFL's finest early and often (who wouldn't) he will have solid secondary options in Andre Roberts Early Doucet and even Stephen Williams. He will also have Todd Heap as a security option. Through the small sample size that is Kolb’s game action his TE has been his best friend. Looking to hook up with former teammate Brent Celek often as an eagle. Look for Kolb to build a nice rapport early with his newly found weapon. Kolb has been dubbed the "next Aaron Rodgers" and the "next Matt Schaub" by others. Lets not get too ahead of ourselves here, he's not going to step in and lead the league in passing, but he will have a very productive season.

4. Chad Henne MIA - WHAT?! I know. I know. I have just lost ALL credibility with this one. No one seems to believe in Henne. Not even his own fans or perhaps in this case lynch mob (queue the we want Orton chants). I can assure you I have not recently exited a mental institution. In 2011 Henne has everything a QB needs to succeed. He has one of the best WRs in the NFL in Brandon Marshall. He has sticky mitts Davone Bess and underrated but reliable Brian Hartline all returning. In addition to that trio of wide outs Henne will have not only Rookie speed demon Clyde Gates (4.37 40 time) to open things up but he will have Reggie Bush as well. Bush hasn't lived up to the hype but he brings one major asset to the table. Mismatches. Bush will be a 1st down dynamo on 3rd downs. He’s someone you have to game plan for heavily. Even when he isn’t being given the ball he draws defensive attention creating openings for others. With all the attention that Bush and Marshall will demand Davone Bess will consistently get open. Hartline and gates will get down field in favorable matchups time and time again. The dolphins will be opening up the offense more Taking more chances and more shots downfield (dolphins had a league low 4 completions of 40 yards or more) giving Henne more opportunity to find and keep a rhythm. The dolphins know the only way to compete with the Patriots and Jets is to score. Entering his 3rd season as the starter Henne will be given every opportunity to succeed.

5. Colt McCoy CLE - Perhaps another head scratcher. McCoy showed a lot of poise and resilience in his rookie season even against the likes of the Steel Curtain Defense. McCoy averaged just under 200 yards a game last year. Not much to get excited about. However this total was posted in an overly conservative offense with perhaps the least talented supporting cast in the NFL. Enter Greg Little. The rookie wide out gives the browns a playmaker. He will develop into a go to guy at some point this season. He's been labeled "the real deal" by browns beat writers thus far in camp. The McCoy to Little combo will thrive under new head coach Pat Shurmur's West Coast offense. McCoy has built as nice connection with TE Evan Moore particularly in the redzone. Moore and Ben Watson will give McCoy big targets to find when he’s under pressure. The emergence of Jordon Norwood will provide a very nice quick strike option (you would be amazed at the difference completing a 3 yard pass is over taking a 5 yard sack). Then there’s Josh Cribbs. No he hasn't been a very productive WR but he’s a tremendous athlete. Ohhh yeah, He's also a little upset about the NFL's new kick off rule. You wont like Cribbs when he’s angry. He will be looking for a house call every time he touches the ball on offense. No McCoy won't be contending for league MVP nor will he make the Probowl but he’s a sneaky 3500 yard 20 TD candidate.



* note - Matt Ryan doesn’t count as a "breakout" player despite his expected progression and change in offensive philosophy. Anyone who throws for over 3700 yards and posts a 28-9 TD:INT ratio has already broken out.

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